亞太區兵荒馬亂，寸草不生，歐洲亦無方向(雖然跌幅不及亞洲及其他新興市場)。黃金、石油、各國兌美元的匯率，全線向下。
只有美元是強勢，美股的表現遠較其他地方理性和穩定。究竟誰是真正的強者? 結果不用多說，市場正在說給你聽。
2008年10月27日 --- 22:25
宏利: US$18.98 (HK$148.0) (HK Close: HK$133.8)
匯控 ADR: US$52.14 (HK$81.3) (HK Close: HK$75.0)
DJIA: 8,330.37 (-0.58%)
10月27日收市價
HSI: 11,015.84 (-12.7%)
HSCEI: 4,990.08 (-14.0%)
莊閒還是要分明........
31 則留言:
現在師兄認為現在匯豐股價是否差不多反應完歐羅跌勢未呢???
有這樣的可能性，不過穩健的做法還是等待英鎊跌多一些(英國經濟數據見底)、新興市場跌定，或者是09年第一季/第二季吧.....
愚見認為出年年中之前唔買股票都冇咩會蝕底。
Thanks for your sharing.
I found some answer of the below in blogs including yours.
會在$88接大笨象貨的，會在短時期賣出嗎？
$88現值，有多少是反映歐羅近期匯價？
大笨象始終留番一隻腳在美國。在美元稱强，資金回流美國之下，對大笨象的盈利貢獻又有多大？
令中信泰富蝕大本的一類外幣對沖合約，作為銷售單位之一的大笨象能從中獲利若干？
到美元下跌，大笨象的非美元盈利折合美元又能否帶動股價上揚?
中央會否前事不計，大手買入大笨象嗎?
有同業能跑嬴大笨象嗎？
寄望美國樓市跌勢可以放緩,還須觀察金融海嘯後,美國樓市的這些曙光可否繼續
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081027/economy.html/
各位,準備追下個奧運概念.
有報道指，布殊政府正在考慮實施一項耗資約400億美元的計劃, 唔知成效會有幾大呢 !
For those who have an interest in Manulife. The blog below posted links to analyst reports on Canadian financial companies by Canadian brokers.
The book value of Manulife is $106.80 HKD per share. Price to book ratio is about 1.18x right now.
http://financialsector.blogspot.com/
I agree with your analysis about the US. Markets all over the world can not recover until the US markets bottomed.
The rally point of the DOW JONES INDEX is 7800 points. This is the starting point of the last bear market rally. It might test that low again this week and might fall below that.
The DOW closed down 203 points today (2.42%) (October 27 2008). It seems the US market is calming down and those 5% or 6% daily moves might be over.
There are signs that the panic selling might be over. The market is reacting to positive earning news lately and this is a good sign.
Thanks Albert:
"Price is what you pay & Value is what you get" -- Warren Buffett.
For excellent and financially sound companies like HSBC and Manulife, this statement holds. I strongly trust both companies can maintain steady dividend.
Not only Manulife, MET, HIG & PRU were targets of fund redemption on Monday night.
市場維京人:
市場總是喜歡開玩笑，物極必反，07/08兩年兩個極端。
亞羊:
不過US--> UK --> Emerging Market玩法有一定參巧價值
巴林:
大形勢難以逆轉，不少領先性的美國經濟數據不俗，只不過是無人理
Kevin:
只是時間問題
400blows:
HK$78的HSBC暗示不利因素反映了十之七八，Downside不太大，長線贏家。
This is a quote from Geremy Graham:
"Stocks are likely ``to set up a once-in-a-lifetime investing opportunity,'' Grantham, 70, wrote in a quarterly letter to investors. ``If stocks are attractive and you don't buy, you don't just look like an idiot, you are an idiot.'' "
You don't have to buy right now but you might be a fool selling at these prices.
Albert
Hi Albert:
"A cow for her milk, A hen for her eggs, And a stock, by heck, for her dividends" --- John Burr Williams
When market goes crazy, I like to stick to this basic principle. Nevertheless, how to pick reliable dividend plays is a skill, the underlying analysis is not simple.
Seems the market is alright. When the crowd thinks HSI will breaches 10,000, it is less likely to happen ^_~
"I strongly trust both companies can maintain steady dividend." & "HK$78的HSBC暗示不利因素反映了十之七八，Downside不太大，長線贏家。" --
Why do you believe HSBC won't cut its dividends in the near future? And given that Standard Chartered has fallen so much vis-a-vis HSBC, what makes HSBC beat Standard Chartered when they have very similar business model at first glance (e.g. no govt capital injection is needed, focusing on emerging markets, large cash reserves)?
I just can't make out distinct differences between the 2 and I am very confused on why SC has performed so badly when compares to HSBC.
Its not the end of the world even if HSBC is cutting its dividend.
Given the market condition we have today, they are performing remarkably well.
If I have to choose between the dividend or making a great acquision at a great price. I don't mind getting a smaller dividend next year.
Their stock certificate is their biggest asset in any acquisition right now.
Albert
Honda is reporting their quarterly results today and
investors are buying on bad news.
I have seen that happened to Yahoo last week.
Albert
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abRU4xUyzDh0&refer=home
ken:
Standard Chartered may subject to profit decline in 2009 under Asian currency depreciation (5% to 40% for individual countries), rising NPLs, slump in fee-based income and slower loan growth (deleveraging). The economic downturn in the US & Europe will affect Asia's export significantly, and thus their asset market and consumption. Strong USD is not good for Asia.
As a comparison, HSBC has more meaningful part of its business conducted in the developed world and USD region. Given its excellent management and financial strength, it can be a performer in the coming years.
Albert:
Yes, even at the worst scenario for HSBC to cut its dividend by 10% to 20%, its dividend yield is still very rich. More important to say, most of the global peers fail to pay dividend in 2H08 and 2009, making HSBC an attractive and safer investment amongst the peers.
Auto-industry might face big challenge ahead, sales in both developed and emerging worlds are likely to decline given the "Consumer Discretionary" nature of Vehicles. I may avoid the industry for a while, even the best player may not offer satisfactory performance.
Thanks for your sharing.
Looking forward to the recovery of 945, which has a sharp drop since Sep.
令中信泰富蝕大本的一類外幣對沖合約，作為銷售單位之一的大笨象能從中獲利若干？
銀行做呢d contract 係earn 小小手續費同埋小小差價(一定會做好對沖),如果唔係銀行就會蝕入肉.
我比較好宏利,今日都係129 買入:P
learning path:
好!
無意中八卦下你既Portfolio，同你一齊有玩太A(19)同宏利(945)。
阿爾伯特兄，
在SP網址讀到以下文字，想請教average yield和12-month dividend yield有什么區別呢?
From December 1936 through March 31 2008 the average yield for the S&P 500 was 3.828% vs. 3.833% for December 2007. The current 12-month dividend yield is 2.14% vs. the 1.89% yield for December 2007. The yield is based on the cash dividends paid over the prior four quarters and the closing quarterly price.
而SP500網頁的Month End Data，9月尾的indicated dividend yield只有2.45%，是否就等同于12-month yield?
折算下來，昨天收市SP500的indicated dividend yield為3.04%，如果和歷史比較，是否仍然不便宜? 而相對港股昨天5.6%的Yield，雖然我認同美國未來最先復蘇，但還是不太理解你認為現在應該買入美股的理由。
此外，未知你有無看到過羅耕10月25日在信報評價美股的新文，對美股前景極其悲觀。我雖然無那么悲觀，但認同他對目前SP500超過18倍P/E ratio未到歷史平均的看法。請指教！
http://www.hkreporter.com/talks/viewthread.php?tid=258756
“歷史平均告訴我們，標普指數對數介乎2.7至2.8，即相當於500至630點，較目前低三、四成；這相當於4800至6000點的道指，符合上述拼圖數字。可惜，跌市永遠不會跌至平均就算數。
若以市盈率計，第一次世界大戰後的1920年年底曾見四點七八倍。以目前標普十八點九倍及道指十點四倍計，即使假設盈利毋須下調，跌至四點七八倍亦相當於標普重返220點及道指重返38xx點。標普220點，其對數即為2.34，比歷史趨勢低0.3至0.4許（圖中一格多些的高度），這還不及1930年代大蕭條和1940年代二戰期般低近0.6（圖中兩格）。要是百年一遇，標普對數理應可比歷史趨勢低0.6更壞，即或跌至到對數2.1之水平，相當於12x點，或目前的標普再跌八成半！若道指由目前再跌八成半，便是12xx點！”
看預期09 P/E好一點，DJIA/S&P500大約10倍左右，Dividend Yield大約3.4%。其中不少環球級數的非週期性企業，股息的可持續性不低。
低息環境下自行判斷平唔平。
新興市場預期09 P/E大約7至13倍，但有Value Trap的可能性，風險大很多。
阿爾伯特兄
你說預期09 DJIA/S&P500 P/E大概10X。請問這個數據從何得來？目前的S&P500 P/E接近20倍，美國企業盈利如何能在不景氣的經濟環境下一年間double? 謝謝！
另外，我理解的value trap是指市場預期高增長而給予高P/E估值，所以A股20-30倍P/E或者中人壽4倍EV股價才是價值陷阱。但現在如新興市場預期P/E只有7-13倍，是否仍然算value trap呢? 請不吝賜教，謝謝！
漏了說一點，新會計制度把資產估值變化也計入earning之后，我認為看真金白銀派出來的dividend yield比P/E ratio更加準確。
不知道阿爾伯特兄有沒有注意過港股歷史上一次有趣的事件：根據恒指服務公司數據，HSI在2000年3月～次年2月的P/E ratio在11X~13X之間，而yield只有1.7%~2.4%，對應的派息比率只有26%左右。而顯然這段時間港股處于歷史的泡沫期，用yield可以證明這個泡沫存在，而用P/E ratio，則對比港股平均15X P/E，反而有可能被誤導以為當時便宜。
I agree there are significant downside risk for US equity.
S&P 500 might not bottom until it reach 600 to 720 range. That represents a 30% downside from here.
I don't think it is time to buy the S&P 500 index right now. But there are lots of cheap stocks in the US market now.
I don't think anyone can time the market perfectly. This is the time to go shopping if you have cash. Look for companies with low price to book ratio (<2x), low price to cash flow ratio (< 4x) low debt (<50%) and high dividend yield (>3%).
Just turn on your stock screen now and you will feel like a kid in a candy store!!
Here is a quote from Nouriel Roubini:
"And while panic and destabilizing market dynamics is the driver of financial markets even economic fundamentals are awful as investors are finally realizing that a severe US and Eurozone and G7 and emerging markets and global recession is coming and will be deep and protracted. As I have argued for a while equity prices may have to fall another 30% based on fundamentals alone before they bottom out. Why so? In a severe two year US and global recession S&P 500 firms earnings per share (EPS) could realistically fall to $50 or $60. If P/E ratios fall to 12 this implies the S&P 500 index falling to a 600 to 720 range. If P/E ratios fall - as likely in a recession - to 10 then the S&P 500 index could fall as low as 500 to 600. So even based on fundamental factors alone there is another 30% or more downside risk to US equities; and now, on top of such fundamentals, thee is also an ugly and nasty panic-driven market dynamics at work."
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254130/bloomberg_october_23_2008_roubini_says_panic_may_force_market_shutdown_friday_morning_update_markets_are_becoming_dysfunctional_and_sp_and_djia_futures_trading_already_suspended_today
Water:
正是Value-Trap之意!
1997、2000年HSI的Historical P/E唔高，但當1998/2001-2003核心盈利下跌之際，咁就好麻煩ga la。
2009年不少中港兩地的Banks、Properties、Cyclicals、Commodities的核心盈利(Cash Flow/Dividend)很大機會會下跌20%至50%不等。
市場不是傻的。
然而，HSBC、China Mobile、Li & Fung、China Life、CLP、China Resources Enterprises等公司的Cash Flow(Dividend)的可持續性較高，Value-Trap中伏的機會亦較低。
Albert:
I may avoid commodity, cyclical, consumer discretionary, materials & tech sectors at this moment.
Nevertheless, quality financials names, consumer staples and discount retailers are very attractive given attractive and sustainable dividend yield.
Looking at DJIA, I tend to be slightly +ve.
唔知你會唔會寫返篇文介紹下宏利呢?
等大家可以學多d野~
Thanks for your tip.
I am slowly accumulating my positions on financials. I am buying more aggressively lately.
Emerging market financials are on my list but I am still waiting for a better price. (China Life and ICICI Bank are the names I am watching right now)
Insurance companies:
Manulife, Torchmark Corp, Berkshire Hathaway
Banks:
Santander Bank, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Wells Fargo Bank
I know you have exited your position in Standard Chartered lately. When will you consider buying shares of Standard Charterd again? (Standard Charterd have dropped almost 50% since Sept 1)
Albert:
Standard Chartered faces the following risks in the coming 12 months, the risks were not reflected in the 3Q08 operating note:
1) Asian currency severe depreciation, which began since Sep.
2) Sharp decline in Export growth, which happened since Aug.
3) Economic slowdown for Asia
4) Over-gearing in certain Asian countries, especially in S Korea. (It is what we know now, but could be spotted out couple of months ago as I did)
As such, USD-denominated earnings may decline in 2009, as what happened in 1998 and 2001.
This is the reason why the market award a relatively conservative P/B of 1.08x (Jun-08 NAV: HK$111; Share Price: HK$120).
As a comparison, HSBC trades at P/B of 1.16x(Jun-08 NAV: HK$82.3; Share price: HK$95.4), but of lower risk and richer dividend yield.
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