投資哲學


萬法歸一 ,股海唯心至上,到頭來無一法可得,亦無甚麽可失

投機、投資、或中短線交易,只要方法得當,則殊途同歸,並無對錯之分

投資的最高境界並非贏大錢,而是克服心魔


星期二, 11月 11, 2008

無謂大驚小怪

忍不住又要大笑一餐,某中文報紙指出利豐將會裁減最少六十名採購員,並在大部分地區凍結人手招聘,因此輕率地作出結論,指出「百年寶號」來年的生意「不行」。

同時間亦有人以「土法分析」指出利豐的現金流十分虛弱,更指出「Operating Cash Flow」不足夠去應付「Investing Cash Flow」。

另外,最常聽到的是利豐有大約60%的生意來自美國,因此美國經濟放緩的結果是會終止其盈利增長,甚至有說利豐2009年會錄得盈利倒退。

上述邏輯聽下去很像十分合理,尤其是正當我們不難發現不少中少型製造和出口商近月倒閉,似乎避「豐」則吉,對吧?

各位又有沒有聽過「Garbage In, Garbage Out」一道理? 錯誤的資訊輸入最後只會推論出錯誤的道理(管它固中分析是怎樣仔細),通常此話不會錯得去邊。

首先,不明白利豐之「Business Model」的話,不妨花一點時間了解一下,坊間有相關書籍。除此,最好還是了解一下「Supply Chain Management」、「Flat world」、「Globalization」、「Soft 3 Dollars」、「Outsourcing」等議題。

若然還是感到難以理解的話,相信閣不還未看懂利豐的營商之道,更遑論其「競爭優勢」。對於這類朋友,筆者會建議閣下還是不沾手利豐股票為妙。

「一知半解」之士在發表「偉論」之前,還請「三思」,以免誤導眾生。坊間有大把更易懂的上市公司等著您們去「抽水」,何必「自暴其短」呢?



簡單一點說,利豐的角式是「供應鏈管理者(Supply-Chain Manager)」,另一說法是「Supply-Chain」上各單位和流程的協調者(Co-ordinator)。考慮涉及「Matrix」的「Complexity」,看怕不是容易被對手或新手複製,更遑論「做得出眾」。

利豐的角式:
1) 這是供應(價值)鏈之間的競爭
2) 由客戶下單、生產策劃、生產過程、生產管理、直至貨物運抵客戶手上,可能不超過兩至三個星期,亦是「Delivery Time」的縮短。
3) 另外,供應鏈極具彈性。一件產品會被進一步分拆為不同部件,而每項部件將於全球最合適的地方生產。因此,協調和供應鏈管理的能力是十分重要的。
4) 由於供應鏈的彈性和縮短的「Delivery Time」,客戶可以按「End Market」的經濟情況而向供應鏈管理者下不同的單,例如從「Consumer Discretionary (high-end products)」和「Consumer Staples (Mid-to-low end products)」之間互相轉換。
5) (4)亦說明供應鏈管理者不會沒有生意,即使「End Market」的經濟環境轉差,只要歐洲和美國人仍要消費。
6) 供應鏈管理者的增值點是協助客戶減省成本,「Direct Production Cost」可以減省的不多,反而「Soft 3 Dollars」中能減省的空間不細。若然一件產品的「Total Cost」為$4,$1是「Direct Production Cost」,而$3是涉及運輸、存貨、行政和稅務等「Soft 3 Dollars」。
7) 供應鏈管理者不會擁有任何工廠(即使工廠網絡跨越亞洲、東歐和南美諸國),而是協調人的角色。
8) (7)亦暗示供應鏈管理者是「Asset Light Enterprise」,並不需要每年投入巨大的「CapEx」。


回應坊間對利豐的一些看法:
1) 近日的裁員針對低增值(學歷相對不高)員工,他們亦很有可能由國內同胞替代。這不感奇怪,利豐是一家「知識型」的國際企業。同時間其他優質的國際企業(例如 HSBC、Goldman Sachs)近日來亦有裁員計劃。
沒有人是會喜歡裁員的消息,但這亦同時反映市場經濟「汰弱留強」的現實。於經濟放緩之際各大傳媒針對企業的裁員行動是可以理解,但這並不完全合乎情理和現實情況。長遠之策是改革教育制度和落實有利企業發展的措施,以提高中長遠香港的競爭力

2) (1)的另一代名詞是「Offshoring」,而今次是「Service Offshoring」,可能包括「Merchandizing」及「Accounting」等工作。這亦暗示未來利豐的「EBIT Margin」有不俗的上升空間(正如三年計劃一樣)

Offshoring describes the relocation by a company of a business process from one country to another -- typically an operational process, such as manufacturing, or a supporting processes, such as accounting.

The term is in use in several distinct but closely related ways. It is sometimes used broadly to include substitution of a service from any foreign source for a service formerly produced internally to the firm. In other cases, only imported services from subsidiaries or other closely related suppliers are included. A further complication is that intermediate goods, such as partially completed computers, are not consistently included in the scope of the term.

Offshoring can be seen in the context of either production offshoring or services offshoring. After its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the People's Republic of China emerged as a prominent destination for production offshoring. After technical progress in telecommunications improved the possibilities of trade in services, India became a country leading in this domain though many parts of the world are now emerging as offshore destinations.

The economic logic is to reduce costs. If some people can use some of their skills more cheaply than others, those people have the comparative advantage. The idea is that countries should freely trade the items that cost the least for them to produce.

3) 美國歐洲仍要消費,只是形式改變,利豐的商機有增無減,了解一下利豐的「Business Model」及「History」便知固中一二。唔明? 了解一下海外大型零售商或品牌持有者為何要同利豐做生意?當然是為了「以較短時間以較低成本獲得較高質素的消費產品(例子: 衫、褲、玩具、精品、化妝品)」,更重要的是隨著消費模式的變化而及早轉換訂單。

4) 2007年「Investing Cash Flow」達HK$5B,或遠高於HK$2.5B的「Operating Cash Flow」,聽落係咪好驚呢,小朋友? 咪往! 07年「CapEx」不足HK$300M,那麽錢花在甚麽地方?

唔駛亂估,答案是收購(Merger & Acquisition)。07年利豐收購同業的成本大約為HK$6B,其中最大的為「Tommy Hilfiger Sourcing」,作價是8倍P/E左右。別忘記20年來利豐是併購和整合的高手中的高手,其章法可能比匯控還要高明

5) 「Service Offshoring to China & other Emerging Market」以及商品價格大瀉下,2009年「EBIT Margin」的前景不俗。

6) 經濟轉弱對利豐的機遇當然是更多訂單,西方零售商要依靠「Outsourcing」來減低成本和縮短供貨時間(Lead-Time)。還未給您們算入「M&A」對營業額和盈利的增值。

7) 2008、2009以及2010年的營業額、盈利、現金流和股息當然有很大機會繼續向上,管它的,有「Sustainable Dividend Growth」還要害怕甚麽? 08年好似至少有6厘.....

坊間三四流分析,還是一笑置之吧!


亂世之時,妖魔鼠輩四處皆見,唯有清明之心才能看破一切「似是而非」的鬼話。

智者不惑,勇者不懼、仁者不誤眾生。

閒時多作進修、多思考、明道理而多作反覆驗證,最重要的還是要學以置用。正所謂「大學之道」在「明德格物」.........


註: 大學之道:
大學之道,在明明德,在親民,在止於至善。知止而后有定,定而后能靜,靜而后能安,安而后能慮,慮而后能得。物有本末,事有終始,知所先後,則近道矣。

古之欲明明德於天下者,先治其國;欲治其國者,先齊其家;欲齊其家者,先脩其身;欲脩其身者,先正其心;欲正其心者,先誠其意;欲誠其意者,先致其知;致知在格物。物格而后知至,知至而后意誠,意誠而后心正,心正而后身脩,身脩而后家齊,家齊而后國治,國治而后天下平。

50 則留言:

learning path 說...

唔駛勞氣,冇人發呢d 錯誤資料.都唔會有平貨.

3) 美國歐洲仍要消費,只是形式改變,利豐的商機有增無減,了解一下利豐的「Business Model」及「History」便知固中一二。唔明? 了解一下海外大型零售商或品牌持有者為何要同利豐做生意?當然是為了「以較短時間以較低成本獲得較高質素的消費產品(例子: 衫、褲、玩具、精品、化妝品)」,更重要的是隨著消費模式的變化而及早轉換訂單。

Li & Fung 主力都係做garment,呢幾年買埋brand name 可以玩梗多野.....fashion 呢d 野一向都係容易用cheap 野扮high-end....好似某某brand name 出環保袋.....同你係Park n Shop 買環保袋都係分別唔大. 不過利潤就係幾好幾倍.

Li & Fung 已經做唔小CIF order, 即係送到客人warehouses and/or stores.係raw material drop 同埋energy price 下跌時.運輸成本都會相應降低,各國唔同的出入口稅制,點先可以save 呢d tax? 佢soft 3 dollars 可以做時事情更多,同時只有出入口量大做呢d 先有value.

阿爾伯特 說...

Learning Path:

如兄所說,利豐的潛力並非普通人能想像。坊間太多似是而非之論,不得不寫番篇向公眾說明其中實相 ^_~

補充一點,"CIF order"即是管理層所指的"Onshore business"。

learning path 說...

上述邏輯聽下去很像十分合理,尤其是正當我們不難發現不少中少型製造和出口商近月倒閉,似乎避「豐」則吉,對吧?

如果我係一個store 的buyer, 見到d 製造和出口商係咁close. 只會
1.係返本土買,安全d (特別係數量唔多,不足以cover 運費,documentation,import tax 等fix costs)
2.搵一個有實力的trader做,有咩事trader同你搵第二間有能力工廠完成訂單.(數量足以cover 運費,documentation,import tax 等fix costs. 完全enjoy soft 3 dollars)
利豐有能力可以做到1,可能俾limited offer 呢個buyer. 同其他大客order consolidate. 再自己做埋CIF.

利豐係小數可以fullfill 2 的international trading company.

鬼叫採購咩鬼人都可以做,某程度上比地產代埋更易入行.考牌,專業資格(有,不過唔係必要).cut 60人都唔算好多.只有希望呢60人可以快d 搵反工

learning path 說...

如兄所說,利豐的潛力並非普通人能想像。坊間太多似是而非之論,不得不寫番篇向公眾說明其中實相 ^_~

你咁快寫可能冇機會買平野ga.....雖然我都冇$$$$$$$$$$$買

learning path 說...

利豐有能力可以做到1,可能俾limited offer 呢個buyer. 同其他大客order consolidate. 再自己做埋CIF.

呢個case 係Li & Fung 自己earn 大部份soft 3 dollars.

阿爾伯特 說...

Learning Path:

我估計兄是Supply-Chain/Merchandizing的行內人,並有多年經驗.....

話時話,可否說多一點有關香港Merchandizer的前路,以及港商(出口)的未來路向??

阿爾伯特 說...

Thank you!

CIF果然利錢豐厚,難怪管理層對"Onshore Business"和"3-year plan"的信心那麼大

learning path 說...

係做呢行,不過我呢d係小腳色.

講下自己點睇香港Merchandizer的前路就好啦
-必須更專業,同時要明白supply chain / logistic 的運作. 會好似工廠Project leader 咁.唔一定樣樣專,不過一定要有機本ideas.

-工作方向,可能會係做東南亞,到亞洲sourcing. 中國sourcing 將會有更大本土Merchandiszer 做.

-形式-從事出口減少,慢慢有些專做入口Merchandiser(可能係做中國d stores 的buyer).(其實一向都有入口Merchandiser,不過做raw materials, parts 呢d 至多d)

遘住咁至多先,明天再遘.

港商(出口)的未來路向=>我未足夠班遘,分亨下睇法就可以.

learning path 說...

專業操守-如果香港要有1間ICAC, 大陸要有10000間.重要係假設真係有效.

都係要多謝國內同胞做事態度.唔係可能係layoff all HK Merchandisers

阿爾伯特 說...

"必須更專業,同時要明白supply chain / logistic 的運作. 會好似工廠Project leader 咁.唔一定樣樣專,不過一定要有機本ideas." --> 看來走高增值和專業路線才是香港人的出路

阿爾伯特 說...

專業操守-如果香港要有1間ICAC, 大陸要有10000間.重要係假設真係有效.

都係要多謝國內同胞做事態度.唔係可能係layoff all HK Merchandisers

--> 這個Point我都有聽過,這亦是為何不少海外企業喜歡於香港設立"Regional Office",至少法律上的問題較易解決,其他專業服務配套亦見完善,地方又"乾淨"很多。

learning path 說...

乾淨唔只係金錢上.大家諗下個milk scandal. 係國內有中間人的生意都有呢d 清形/問題.中間人越多問題越複雜.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal

有危都有機,做onshore business做到咁大. 一有咩問題俾一間retailer recall. 所有客仔都會product recall. 可以馬上bankrupt. 好似年初個玩具OEM 工廠老闆攪到要自殺.

所以點可以成功control quality 都係好重要的因素.如果話Li & Fung 會出問題,會係呢方面機會大d.

learning path 說...

下邊只係例子

大trader搵間工廠做,工廠outsourcing 出去因為自己做冇咩肉食.....間outsourcing 工廠再outsourcing(因為冇capacity 做,low profit margin...etc) 如果其中一間用了d cheap and harmful raw materials
到做finish goods test 個陣係test 唔到.咁會點呢?.......係唔係好似milk scandal 收奶個part 呢?

阿爾伯特 說...

大trader搵間工廠做,工廠outsourcing 出去因為自己做冇咩肉食.....間outsourcing 工廠再outsourcing(因為冇capacity 做,low profit margin...etc) 如果其中一間用了d cheap and harmful raw materials
到做finish goods test 個陣係test 唔到.咁會點呢?.......係唔係好似milk scandal 收奶個part 呢?

--> 這亦是Orchestra Conductor顯示身價的地方

會計仔 說...

please check email

市場維京人 說...

越嚟越鐘意睇呢個 blog。Good job!

說...

一葉知秋,對寒冬視而不見,豈是投資之道?

阿爾伯特 說...

道:
亂世才見真章。不辨清是非、冤枉好人、斷章取義,亦非為人之道!

投資之道離不開現金流和明德格物,基本面和情緒還是分清楚好一點。時間始終是好投資的盟友。


市場維京人:
多謝! 論點始終是論點,總有出錯的可能性。突如其來的TED大升、情緒、以及傳媒誤論,總是沒法預計的。不借貸用實$$買好息好股才是長遠正道。

Ivan 說...

你好,

不知道閣下是否踏足過利豐或在利豐裏面打滾過, 或者對garment/merchandizing有一定的認識. 但閣下對利豐的看法我真的有一點保留.

現在的問題是找不到訂單, 國內生產成本高, 外國客價錢壓得低, 每張訂單內數量又少, 很多Li&Fung的單都是迫廠去做, 因為廠不接單就是死路一條, 接單只是慢慢死. 金融海嘯之後, 更多廠已經挨不到落去而倒閉, Li&Fung再想壓縮成本其實已經很難, 向員工開刀已經係最後一步.

另外, 我覺得兩位馮生太想將成衣採購行業制度化, 在公司裏面設立很多不同部門, 名符其實的「架床叠屋 」, supply chain外行人看就好像很好, 但內行人就會明白只係門面工夫, 更會令到工作流程不暢順.

或者我當局者迷, 看不到利豐有何過人之處(隨了錢多, 可以買很多brand外), 望網主有更多真知灼見可供分享.

阿爾伯特 說...

HK iPod Touch & iPhone:

若然欲聽行內人之見,麻煩看一看上面"Learning Path"之見。

買股看"Competitive Advantage"、"Business Model"、"Financial Stability"、"Industry Outlook"及"Sustainability"等因素。

馮氏兄弟並非庸才,相反是+分有遠見的策略家和管治者。若然不是,恐怕連90年代亦過不到。

制度化亦是企業做大的必要條件,欠缺有效的制度和標準亦是+分可怕的。古今例子多得很。

另外,恕我難以認同此論:
"在公司裏面設立很多不同部門, 名符其實的「架床叠屋 」, supply chain外行人看就好像很好, 但內行人就會明白只係門面工夫, 更會令到工作流程不暢順",

Supply Chain Management (SCM)不是多餘,而制度化的SCM是有必要的,閣下知唔知道簡單一條牛仔褲唔係淨係簡單地"Made in China",當中涉及很多國家和工序(各自有不同的Comparative Advantage)??? 好似冇制度的話會大亂ga wor

我可以同您講,不少在英資銀行內做的人不喜歡該行的制度官僚,但她亦是可靠的投資。

始終有Demand亦會有Supply,問題是如何做好佢.......

Ivan 說...

或者你應該親身向成衣採購人員了解一下行情, 或者聽聽對Li&Fung有任何評價才作出更多紙上分析.

一件成衣如何從無到有, 相信我會比你更為了解. 如果你用銀行制度相比成衣採購, 我只可以說是蘋果和橙, 比較根本沒有意思.

不用懷疑, Li&Fung係一間好有架構的公司, 但是否如你所說的那麼好? 但願如此.

你的分析, 令我想起Peter Lynch的名言 - 行內人比起行外人可以得到更多真實的消息.

阿爾伯特 說...

HK iPod Touch & iPhone

想問一句,閣下是否服務於利豐的對家??

learning path 說...

HK iPod Touch & iPhone

supply chain外行人看就好像很好, 但內行人就會明白只係門面工夫, 更會令到工作流程不暢順

睇下你係用咩睇法.supply chain 係睇成個business process.....即係由raw materials 到 end user 手上. 係Factory 同 Trading firm 呢d 上游成員工作係多了.Paper work 同data entry 係多了,同時會有更多人做checking. 不過係下游成員(warehouse handling, retail store staff)可以做小好多野.如果你只focus 係自己一個business unit 去睇你的確係多野做好多.

架床叠屋-其實大家都知merchandising個過程係早期做錯野會係好大件事同埋攪返掂成本都係好高.Example: 個label做錯 去到客個邊重新做label, unpack 再repack, handling, delivery delay cost 你都知會幾貴(外國人工高係主因,重有因delay 而唔見d 生意,d stock 可能transport back warehouse re-work 個revise logistic cost). 如果係加多d 人做checking, 我相信比出錯之後補wok 成本會平d.

將來用RFID, 做stock take / Inventroy control 就更簡單,如果你有做store 經驗就會知retailer 做stock take 係費時費力同時唔會有生意增長的,主要係會計上必需.

可能大家唔知supply chain 做得好重可以做到用最小金錢做最多生意.由買料到生產安排都會涉及.Working Capital 可以keep 到最少, 呢d係生意上係十分重要.

同時都係有唔小公司重摸索緊supply chain 係點做.當中的確唔小係掛羊頭賣狗肉.

Ivan 說...

我以前在L&F集團子公司做, 現在已轉行.

=================================

L&F還有對手嗎? L&F的客, 好多都係自己名下的, 只不過係母公司L&F集團射單過去上市那間L&F做.

你說"買股看"Competitive Advantage"、"Business Model"、"Financial Stability"、"Industry Outlook"及"Sustainability"等因素。". 但trading公司首要是找到訂單, 沒有訂單, 又何來幫你的客戶增值做value added??? 沒有訂單, 又何需要用supply chain management???

L&F就好似一個巨人, 有食物就可以好大力, 一無食物就可能倒地不起. L&F主力做成衣, 你可以話係必需品, 亦可以話唔係. 當你認為佢好有潛力, 是否應該了解下佢有什麼brand. Target customers是什麼人, demographic是什麼? 開發美國以外市場進度又是怎樣? 這才是向前看, 看公司增長的方向.

老實說, 你的分析只看到"基本面"及馮氏兄弟所提倡的供應鏈. 但公司內在, 行業前景, 似乎未見觸及.

learning path 說...

其實Li & Fung 都有做錯野. 好似2000年都有攪d B2B, B2C business 不過好快close 同玩完. 日本market 打極都打唔入.

New Three Year Plan(2008-2010)
• New outsourcing deals
• Proprietary brands business
• Continuing with our Two-Pronged acquisition
strategy
• Onshore USA, Europe, China
• Footwear
• Health, Beauty and Cosmetics (HBC)

上邊係Li & Fung 3 years plan. 我覺得都係合理. Footwear, Health, Beauty and Cosmetics (HBC) 係成衣retailer 增加product mix 經常會加入的產品.

我自己覺得最大potential 係Onshore USA, Europe, China. 可以話係正面去同USA, Europe, China 入口商搶生意.

L&F還有對手嗎? L&F的客, 好多都係自己名下的, 只不過係母公司L&F集團射單過去上市那間L&F做.

呢個方法冇咩問題,只要keep 住有orders咁就會
1.有訂單,
2.幫你的客戶增值做value added

做onshore business最緊要係有量,先可以分攤固定成本.同forwarder去傾時都可以有大d bargaining power.

learning path 說...

如果睇下Li & Fung, 佢已經排好曬d 子公司俾佢玩Onshore business. 係USA 買唔小批發商,入口商.(好似有部分係under Fung's brothers)

China 已經有利和傾銷,利亞retailer(Circuirt K, 聖安X).佢已經有曬入口同出口牌照.

印度就買間logistic firm.

歐洲除了買了間store sourcing office攞個exclusive sourcing right好似冇咩野做到.

成衣出口係Cash cow, on shore business 同HBC, footwear 先係star.

我唔敢遘佢一定掂,因為concept好都要做到出來先有用.不過好過玩pure 工業股,製衣股.同埋Li & Fung 有個慣性係一有錯誤會好快改好.係小部分華人公司做到.

阿爾伯特 說...

HK iPod Touch & iPhone:

不用將簡單事情複雜化,很多事情略為動下腦筋和觀察下不難悟出其中一二。投資最怕見樹但不見林。

題外話,有個朋友既親友曾經於利豐做事,該名親友自1997年至今一直看淡利豐至今。

是否想知道利豐的增長模式??
1) 環球"Outsourcing"行業增長(4%-7%),其中包括美國歐洲等國的零售增長(1%-4%)
2) "Outsourcing"行業的大吃細,因此"Mega Sourcing Firms"的增長可達15%至20%,直至2012年。
3) M&A

唯一嚴重風險是Global Depression,不過呢家係Recession,而唔係Depression。

"L&F就好似一個巨人, 有食物就可以好大力, 一無食物就可能倒地不起"
--> 如果美國同歐洲人消費唔起咪係law,呢家美國人係走入Discount Stores (e.g. Walmarts、Tesco、H&M)購物(有留意海外財經消息的話不會不知)。不過咁係講緊"Depression"先至出問題。

"L&F主力做成衣, 你可以話係必需品, 亦可以話唔係. " --> 咁都要著衫,除非連Wal-Mart都唔入

講左咁耐,閣下好似肯定多過否定利豐既實力("Li & Fung係一間好有架構的公司"、"L&F還有對手嗎?"、"錢多, 可以買很多brands")。

再讓多步棋啦,頂多就當我高估哂佢既優勢啦,似乎未來Cash Flow都好穩定。


無論如何,敬請閣下每天上黎講一講利豐,淨係今日就升11.6%!

learning path 說...

L&F還有對手嗎?

美國有William E.Conner

台灣有Test Rite(主力係做Hard goods)

Ivan 說...

今天升11%又如何, 你真的著眼波覆多於長期增長嗎?

閣下亦不用「讓棋」, 你看好L&F自然有你的道理. 而你的分析也不見得有真知灼見, 所以你說「讓」, 言重了.

希望利豐管理層不會令你失望!

learning path 說...

現在的問題是找不到訂單, 國內生產成本高, 外國客價錢壓得低, 每張訂單內數量又少, 很多Li&Fung的單都是迫廠去做, 因為廠不接單就是死路一條, 接單只是慢慢死. 金融海嘯之後, 更多廠已經挨不到落去而倒閉, Li&Fung再想壓縮成本其實已經很難, 向員工開刀已經係最後一步.

Li & Fung 係東南亞都有做sourcing.佢係香港cut 人可以係re-organise 人手.將來可能係其他東南亞國家有多d Resource做sourcing, order fullfillment.

呢個係唔可以避免,等於十幾年前邊有d chain store 係香港開buying office之後唔係cut 佢自己backoffice d 人手.要保持地位就要自己再做好d.

learning path 說...

現在的問題是找不到訂單, 國內生產成本高, 外國客價錢壓得低,

呢幾年中國material, exchange rate, operating cost 同人工都起得快.加埋運費同onshore handling.東歐生產成本比較便宜.

相信係raw materials,油價持續回落.中國出口會有一定支持.

阿爾伯特 說...

learning path兄一言兩語,遠勝我呢D半外行講十句。

無論如何,業務上來說利豐不是完全無風險(就算CLP都有Policy Risk),不過相對上(其他出口商、OEMs、ODMs)來說並不算是大。級數夠鎮住大局,坊間不少說法實在太過斷章取義,太睇少利豐的功架。

Market Risk又是另一Issue,TED spread、Market Sentiment,中短期真係冇得估,不過最多呃您一年半載......

阿爾伯特 說...

HK iPod Touch & iPhone:
"真知灼見",當然不會出自我口,閣下亦太言重。

我只是揾隻有很高機會維持派息(甚至提高派息)的優質股,正如不少人喜歡匯控、中電、恆生、太古、宏利一樣。

每項投資有各自的風險,但好多野做下功課再、加一點Common Sense、再俾少少包容,就ok嫁啦。

再略為Diversify一下,唔駛死既。

"真知灼見" --> 可能真係要走去揾D高人指點迷津才行

learning path 說...

客氣客氣!我都係知小小同大家分享下.

Proprietary brands business其實都係做onshore business 其中一步棋.即係香港都有紅A local brand 專做household products.

要打入一個market,買brand 係最快.不過成本相對高.之後用Li & Fung自己的sourcing base 去price reduction. 再做大個量enjoy 埋soft 3 dollars.

Proprietary brands business definition:
http://www.glgroup.com/Dictionary/CGS-Proprietary-Brands.html

阿爾伯特 說...

其他"Proprietary Brands"的例子可能是惠康的"First Choice"或者是"Toys R Us"的"Toy Island"


First Choice:
http://www.wellcome.com.hk/en/brand_story.html

"First Choice
Wellcome established its second international exclusive corporate brand, First Choice, in 1998, and it has grown to cover an extensive product range of over 1,000 items. With prices at 20-30% less than comparable international brands, it is a well-known brand in Hong Kong."


Toy Island:
"Toy Island Manufacturing Company Limited is a Hong-Kong based toy manufacturer, which is part of the Li & Fung Group of companies (80% equity stake held indirectly). Henry CHAN, aged 50, is the Chairman of Toy Island Manufacturing Company Limited. He has over 23 years of experience in the toy industry. Toy Island is a somewhat under-rated toy company, as its figures seem to offer greater play value, at a lower cost."

https://secure.adrentech.com/AFRX/doc.aspx?docID=4325

learning path 說...

係supply chain 去睇,要係個Market 有長久地位.必定要做到最起碼自己industry supply chain 的main business unit.

即係好似Wal-mart 係US retailer 中一哥係條條supply chains下游主要business unit (e.g. Toys,garment, household products...)都有佢參與.

上游business unit好似各大raw material 生產商,mining companies(Rio Tinto) 同埋美國鋁業,鋼材生產商

不過香港冇上邊呢d advantages,香港出口商將來可能要創新.創新唔一定係發明新野.可以係將現有產品做好定位.我相信係做niche market.

其實香港出口商係好smart,好似自己會發掘中東,東南亞,拉丁美州呢d 早4-5年係niche markets.

產品都由garmets,一般hardgoods 做到家電,mp3 呢d 電子產品.嬰兒產品等.

下一步會係做Proprietary brands business,做香港local 到大陸進口生意.

呢d 相信係trading firm 可以生存下去的方法.

至於OEM,ODM工廠, 相信更多會好似TTI咁.做自己brand,其實佢已經做緊Li & Fung 想做的Proprietary brands business同Onshore USA, Europe business有唔小stores都已經係一定要擺佢d products上架.我都好欣賞呢間公司.佢個business model 都好有研究價值.

阿爾伯特 說...

Learning Path:

又向你學野!! 咁我又吹下水

"其實香港出口商係好smart,好似自己會發掘中東,東南亞,拉丁美州呢d 早4-5年係niche markets."
--> 呢個方向似乎亦係TDC近幾年下功夫的事情。香港人懂找新的生存方向,可能是多年風雨練來的


"至於OEM,ODM工廠, 相信更多會好似TTI咁.做自己brand"
"我都好欣賞呢間公司.佢個business model 都好有研究價值."
--> 長線來說應該是很合理的,近幾年的收購的確令其擁有不少好"Brands" (Milwaukee, AEG, Hoover, Dirt Devil),不過TTI有兩大弱點,End Market穩定性不高(Home Depot可以棄車保帥)以及Financials不太穩。


"下一步會係做Proprietary brands business,做香港local 到大陸進口生意."
--> 毒奶事件應該有利港商,以質取勝 :)


"產品都由garmets,一般hardgoods 做到家電,mp3 呢d 電子產品.嬰兒產品等."
--> 電子產品可能是港商的弱點,還是由台灣人話事啦。Foxconn/Hon Hai其實係EMS的Li & Fung,不過Tech-products的End Market複雜一點,太集中幾個大客,Product Shift又太快。經濟差仲要買衫,不過電子產品可以遲D先買,所以Wal-Mart越戰越勇,Circuit City要結業,Best Buy銷售下滑。

kelvin 說...

Last month of so, alot of retail stores and department stores are experiencing record low in sales. Within the industry, people around talk and think economic depression, not recession.

The problem is American don't have as much credit in the credit card to pay for the products. (Otherword, credit card companies are holding the credit to lend) I guess thats the reason Paulson is now concentrating on buying back securities backed products on credit card debt, student loans, auto loans, housing and government agency debt, instead of just housing toxic.

Do not get me wrong Americans are still purchasing but I talked to people, it just was not enough. I guess you can say Walmart sales has increased but other than Walmart, MacDonald and Apple, I do not know which companies are enjoying this moment.

To people around, they now feel this is a main street problem, not just wall street.

Just hope Paulson plan will work.

*Side note: According to people I talk to, alot of the people around my area did not know the seriousness of the problem until Bush's TV appearances on selling the bailout package to the public. I guess instead, he created fear atmosphere around and thats when the retailers sales began to get a big hit.

Just becareful, there must be reasons why the market is shorting 494 lately.

阿爾伯特 說...

Kelvin:

Thanks a lot for your first-hand information in the US.

As what I have been reiterating over the weeks, "Consumer Staple driven spending" is somewhat reliable, and I guess you would not disagree with that. You also quote the fact that people keep spending in the discount stores and low-end necessities.

Under such scenario, the end demand growth for Li & Fung will not be affected severely, and I believe people who understand the business model and end clients of Li & Fung will not oppose that. Don't forget Wal-Mart and several gigantic sized retailers are the major customers of Li & Fung

"The Americans will spend, but will be in a smarter way", this is a consensus which could be observed, either by the natives like you or from quality medias such as WSJ or CNN.

Some sensible reasons for the short-selling :
1) The market speculates on a "DEPRESSION Scenario"; the scenario is unlikely but the panic sentiment is everywhere.

2) Abnormal TED, and it is somewhat related to the trust of the system and sentiment.

3) (1) and (2) also suggest poor stock market performance around the globe. Everything, inclduding good or crappy assets, have been dropping over the months. Of course, quality assets like Li & Fung have dropped less than the crappy 2nd-to-3rd tiers.

4) Mis-understanding on the business nature and end-market of Li & Fung, and this is one of the reasons for me to write the article.

5) Some trend-oriented short-sellers, which like to trade under rumours. Remember, these people have no idea on SCM or Soft 3 dollars.

To be frank, I don't mind if the crowd attributes the share price drop to "Market De-rating", "Mis-understanding" and "Abnormal TED". However, any "抽水" view without valid assumptions, facts, and/or logic regarding the fundamentals is very inappropriate.

If there's something bad for the core of Li & Fung, I am afraid it is around HK$3 to HK$6 now. Study the export stocks like Foxconn (2038) and TTI (669) and you may get an idea.

Besides, any share price comparison without considering the "Systematic Risk" (i.e. HSBC, HSB, China Mobile, SHKP, China Life, HKEx also drop at the same time) does not sound responsible or appropriate.


Imagine what may Warren Buffett reply you, if you tell him to note his quality core holdings (BAC, WFC, AXP, KFT, JNJ) simply because the share prices have dropped for XX% since Jan??

learning path 說...

--> 呢個方向似乎亦係TDC近幾年下功夫的事情。香港人懂找新的生存方向,可能是多年風雨練來的

我所知的係,TDC 同政府一般都係d 私人企業傾好曬d 野已經做到d 成績之後先"開始"focus 呢d markets.做人都係要靠自己.

出口方面可能有信保局 : 出口信用保險,網上保單申請 (信保易)先係最重要.

我自己認為TDC同政府最失策係冇好好把握exhibition center 呢個地位.相關貿易,人流,物流可以係無限商機.

睇下廣州Canton Fair /Macau 做幾多商務客.呢d商機係白白流失.同埋係姐可以提供比較多低學歷職位.

learning path 說...

美國都有2個地方專做exhibition center
一個係Atlanta 同埋Las Vegas

其中Macau 係玩緊Las Vegas個隻路線

而廣州比較接近Atlanta

阿爾伯特 說...

Learing Path:
我可以確信你掌握整個行頭的龍脈(不是高層便是具前膽性的策略員),連"exhibition center"行業都清楚得很!!

learning path 說...

過獎了!我唔係高層更唔係策略員.只係大公司中一個小職員.完全唔係"掌握整個行頭的龍脈".

呢d 都係個人八卦先知道.同時知道自己行業掂唔掂.要轉工/轉型都知行咩方向先真.

Student Of Value Investing 說...

If you have doubt about US consumer spending, check out the numbers of Walmart, Costco, Sears and JC Penny.Sales of Walmart is exploding since 2007 and sales in Sears and JC Penny are tanking.

You get to shop somewhere even if you are unemployed and you still have income in the US because of their social security net.

People will spend less but they will spend their money somewhere. They might drive less, stop buying the expensive Ford Explorer trucks but they still need to eat, buy new clothes, go to movies and buying those small consumer devices like iPods / iPhones for Chrismas.

Thank you for letting us know so much about Li Fung. A great play for the globalization trend and I don't see this trend ending any time soon.

阿爾伯特 說...

Learing Path:
上善之水向低流!

Albert:
You really get the point I have been telling the people. Many people think the globe will reduce spending (it seems to be true) but they miss the point that the discount-retailers and the mid-end series of the luxurious brands will benefit.

Americans will spend less for cars, luxuries, consumer, furnitures, electronics, but they still need to buy clothes and other necessities.

The situation is true around the globe. Americans visit Wal-mart and Costco, British people spend their weekend at Tesco, Japanese go to Uniqlo while HK people go more often to H&M, Uniqlo and Cafe De Carol.

kelvin 說...

My question is will people continue to spend in the future. Currently, they are forced to spend because companies here will discount everything to the cheapest in order to clear inventory. Also, many Americans believe their spending will help improve the economy which is all about patriotism. It is something Hong Kong people will not understand until they experience it.

At some points, people will have too many useless things at home. It is not common here for kids to have clothes and shoes that they never wear. A house with 3-4 different game devices. A house with 3-4 cars. Question is how much more can they buy.

Using Sears and JC Penny are not fair because they are really bad company. Also, I do not know if you have noticed, all these department store companys do not just earn money from selling products. Alot of their earning also from credit sales, which means getting interest from its membership card that comes with crazy high interest rate. To me all these departments store is just another version of American Express.

I think the best company which reflect the current economy right now would be Target because it is similar to Walmart and Costco but with target customer of high-middle class.

Costco and Walmart are different as they are more like staple consumption version of 大家樂341 or Macdonald.

I do not know if Walmart Annual report has explained where its growth comes from. According to my view, Walmart growth comes from expansion of food, cosmetic, electronic and medical products. Thats why they have been developing super Walmart because old Walmart mostly sell garment products. (like old wing on)

My concern is not against 494 business model but current business distribution of 494. 494 lean heavily on its business on America. If lets say America consumption continue to drop, how will that impact to the business of 494? Just like Espirit 393, it heavily rely on German. German is officially in recession, it must have negative impact on 393 not positive.

I believe my "current" concern is kind of similar to your concern with HSBC. I do believe that 494 has good management by reading their annual report and books and I will continue to be optimistic with this company.

觀察者 說...

請教阿爾伯特兄:

該怎麼看待「利豐全購Miles Fashion」的意義?就如您曾說,利豐優秀的併購能力與記錄未直接反映在財報上,我們該如何判斷此一M&A動作對營業額和盈利有多大助益?

於經濟放緩與裁員之際,利豐仍出手M&A,是否也暗示它的三年計劃仍能如期達陣?Thanks!

learning path 說...

如果睇下Li & Fung, 佢已經排好曬d 子公司俾佢玩Onshore business. 係USA 買唔小批發商,入口商.(好似有部分係under Fung's brothers)

China 已經有利和傾銷,利亞retailer(Circuirt K, 聖安X).佢已經有曬入口同出口牌照.

印度就買間logistic firm.

歐洲除了買了間store sourcing office攞個exclusive sourcing right好似冇咩野做到.

成衣出口係Cash cow, on shore business 同HBC, footwear 先係star.

我唔敢遘佢一定掂,因為concept好都要做到出來先有用.不過好過玩pure 工業股,製衣股.同埋Li & Fung 有個慣性係一有錯誤會好快改好.係小部分華人公司做到.


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3 年之後, 利豐再次改變定位. 利和傾銷收在佢"全球供應鍵"之下.
佢咁做固然係之前3 YEAR PLAN 唔能夠完全達標的改變.
可以話係利豐管理對未來3年經濟方向的一個指標. 好想睇下利豐點解釋呢個內部"M&A".

Ivan 說...

其實網主有時間的話, 應該重睇lf回顧一下佢自己的分析有幾對辦.

我一早以經講過, lf係有制度, 但採購行業唔係用制度化就可以解決問題, 現在成本不降反升, 已係最好佐証.

lf係好公司, 但市場終會反映其真正價值.

Kim 說...

又出業績了, 三年目標已經無望達成. 分析員究竟會唔會出黎認睇錯左利豐呢?