渣打供股集資

長話短說，供股集資(每3股供1股; 供股價為HK$45.1/GBP 3.9)意味著渣打(2888)的管理層預期資金將會短缺，而同時間並無法從較低「融資成本(Funding Cost)」的融資途經入手。

一般來說，從融資成本低至高的次循來排列，銀行的融資途經有以下幾種:
1) 活期存款(Saving Deposit) / 中央銀行拆借 (Central Bank Financing)
2) 定期存款(Fixed Deposit)
3) 同業拆借 (Interbank Deposit)
4) 債券 (Senior / Subordinated Bond)
5) 優先股 (Preferred Stock)
6) 普通股 (Common Stock)

另一說法是供股集資是唯一方法去增強「Tier-1 Capital」，而以大折讓價進行是保證「萬無一失」的方案。然而，為何要不惜代價去增強「Tier-1 Capital」?

無論如何，有兩點可以肯定:
1) 渣打於新興市場的經營風險可能正在上升(參巧下面的官方聲明)
2) 以大折讓價進行供股集資(很高的融資成本)絕對不是明智的收購融資途經，因此可以排除集資收購的可能性


在聲明中，渣打指出新興市場的經濟風險正在增加中。面對環球金融風暴以及西方經濟的衰退，而這些新興地區亦不能夠置身事外。

「Economic growth within the key core markets of Asia, Africa and the Middle East is clearly slowing down largely as a consequence of the global financial crisis and the sharp economic slowdown in the West. However, although these economies are not immune to the challenges and uncertainties emerging from the global financial crisis, in general their economic and financial fundamentals are resilient and their near term economic growth rates appear likely to remain well above those of markets in the West.」


管理層亦指出供股集資的用途是增強資本狀況，尤其在不明朗的前景下。

「Following the Rights Issue, the Group will be in an even better position to weather the economic uncertainties and take advantage of the opportunities emerging from the current turmoil in financial services.」

「The Board is alert to the prospect of continuing volatility in the currency and financial markets and to the increased levels of economic uncertainty across all sectors and geographies.」

同時間渣打亦列出資本充足度等財務狀況，但須要注意全部數據為2008年10月前，亦即韓國和其他個別新興市場出現金融危機之前:
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio: 86% (30 Sep 08)
Tier 1 CAR: 8.50% (30 Jun 08)
Total CAR: 14.9% (30 Jun 08)
Reported NAV/share: HK$115
Tangible NAV/share: HK$75

為何要急於供股集資，而供股價(HK$45 / GBP 3.9)亦是比起停牌前渣打股價(HK$88.0 / GBP 7.60)折讓不細? 固中原因可能是於08年10月至今潛在的風險，或者是管理層預視以下風險:
1) 亞洲貨幣兌美元貶值，其中以南韓Won的幅度最大，影響收入
2) 經濟風險增加後導致壞帳上升
3) 金融風暴導致中間業務收入大減
4) 地區風險增加下，融資成本上升

雖然渣打表示08財年不會減股息，但09財年的股息是否能夠維持，則是有待觀察。

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Standard Chartered Plans US$3 Billion Rights Offer
(Bloomberg 24 Nov 08)

Standard Chartered Plc, the third- biggest U.K. bank, plans to raise 1.8 billion pounds (US$2.7 billion) in a rights offer to bolster its finances as the global economic recession deepens.

The London-based bank is offering 30 new shares for 91 already held to existing shareholders at 390 pence each, or a 48.7 percent discount to the last closing price, according to a statement to Hong Kong's stock exchange today.

"The bank is taking a precautionary stance against a potentially much worsened economic scenario," said Wong Kwok Wai, a Hong Kong-based analyst at BOC International Holdings Ltd. "A rights offer is a better arrangement to strengthen their capital ahead of a potential slowdown. There's a dilutive effect, but in the long run it puts the bank in a better position."

Standard Chartered, which gets more than three-quarters of its profit in Asia, hasn't faced the funding pressures of other U.K. banks including HBOS Plc, which are relying on the government for cash in a bailout package worth 37 billion pounds (US$55 billion). Banks and brokerages worldwide have raised $830 billion since the subprime-mortgage market's collapse last year.

Standard Chartered declined 5.3 percent to HK$89 as of 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong, compared with a 1.2 percent decline for the benchmark Hang Seng Index. The stock closed at 759 pence in London on Nov. 21.

Capital Strength
Temasek Holdings Pte, Singapore's state-owned investment company and the biggest shareholder in the bank with 18.8 percent, will take up its rights in the offer according to the statement.

Standard Chartered may need US$3.2 billion by year-end to lift its core Tier 1 ratio, a measure of capital strength, to 8 percent, from 6.1 percent, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. report on Oct. 20. Capital-raising by banks in the U.K., Switzerland, and the U.S. are part of an "industrywide shift" toward higher capital levels for lenders, according to Merrill.

Standard Chartered has spent more than US$6.3 billion on purchases since the start of 2005 to expand in markets like Korea and Taiwan. The bank said earlier this month it will buy an Asian unit from JPMorgan Cazenove Ltd. to boost corporate banking services.

Standard Chartered said on Oct. 28 it has strong liquidity and is well capitalized with a "conservative" balance sheet, yet "it's clear that Asian economic growth is moderating."

The bank said last week it pushed back its hiring in Hong Kong, the biggest contributor to pretax income in the first half with a 25 percent share, as the city slipped into recession.

Standard Chartered has declined 59 percent in London trading in 2008, the second-best performer in the six-member FTSE 350 Banks Index, which is down 60 percent. The bank in August posted a 31 percent increase in first-half net income to US$1.79 billion, lifted by corporate lending in India and Hong Kong. The bank forecast "double-digit" growth in earnings per share this year.