審慎的作風依然不變

國泰(293)昨晚再次股出盈警，其中原因主要是:

1) 受經濟轉壞影響，頭等和商務訂位的下降，以及近月貨運量按年下跌
2) 兩岸三通所帶來的潛在營業額下降
3) 燃油成本對沖虧蝕，按市價計(MTM)截至10月31日的對沖虧蝕達HK$2,800M。

頭兩項不是甚麼新聞，市場若然不是已經「計晒數」就是「計凸數」。有趣的當然是第三項，各位未被各大財經傳媒的頭條「駭壞」之前，最好還是了解一下其中的「來龍去脈」。

假設甚麼也不懂，只要明白「對沖(Hedge)」的意思就行，對沖是審慎的風險管理，而非高風險的投機。

以石油市場為例，投機者(Speculation)可能買入「Call Option」或者是「Long Futures」來進行看好油價的投機。

與前者不同，大量使用燃油的航空公司只會擔心油價上升的風險，因此會進行期權對沖(Ooption Hedge)來減低成本風險。

估計國泰於7月31日左右開倉做「Hedge」，而當時油價大約為US$125。詳細做法應該是:
1) 沽出低行使價(Strike)的石油Put Option (e.g. Strike = US$120)
2) 從(1)獲取「Premium」，再將此現金流購入行使價較高的「Call Option」(e.g. Strike US$130)
3) 同時間國泰在日常營運有購入燃油的需要，油價上升對其不利。換句說話是等同一個「看空油價的投機者」，因此有需要進行對沖

Along with many airlines, Cathay Pacific enters into hedging contracts the economic effect of which is equivalent to entitling:
(i) Cathay Pacific to buy fuel from the contract counterparties in future periods at specified prices and
(ii) the contract counterparties to sell fuel to Cathay Pacific in future periods at specified prices.
In any one hedging contract, the price at which Cathay Pacific is effectively entitled to buy fuel will be considerably higher than that at which the counterparty is effectively entitled to sell fuel.


可能出現的情況:
1) 如果油價上升 --> Long Call Option的利潤會抵消燃油成本上升的營運虧損
2) 如果油價下跌 --> Sell Put Option的虧損會與燃油成本下降騰出的營運盈利互相抵消
3) 如果油價不升不跌 --> 亦無盈利或虧損

換句說話，國泰能夠以此策略鎖定燃油成本。若然對沖的部位不超過預期的用量，期權對沖策略根本只是審慎的風險管理，正如國泰所言:

The grant to counterparties of effective rights to sell fuel reduces materially the cost to Cathay Pacific of hedging against increases in fuel prices. Depending on future movements in the spot fuel price, the effect of the relevant hedging contracts is that Cathay Pacific’s future effective cost of obtaining fuel could be higher than they would have been if Cathay Pacific had not entered into them. It is Cathay Pacific's policy not to enter into hedging contracts which in the aggregate relate to volumes which exceed its expected commercial requirements for fuel.

下一個問題是國泰能否受惠於不斷下跌的油價? 筆者可以好負責任咁講，答案是肯定的，多年內一直有留意國泰的朋友不難察覺管理層通常只是「對沖一年用油量的一部份」。唔信? 計俾您睇吧:

Hedge Loss from Sell Put Option = HK$2,800M
Estimated Net Premium Income = US$200M
Oil Strike Price = US$125
Oil Price at 31 Oct 08 = US$67

Estimated No. of Barrel Hedged = (2,800 + 200)/(125 - 67) / 7.8 = 6.6M Barrels
Estimated Annual Oil Usage = 35M to 40M Barrels
Hedge Ratio = 16.5% to 18.9%

換句說話，國泰只是部份對沖用油量(一如既往)，因此國泰將會受惠於不斷下跌的油價，當然營業收入有下跌風險。又退一步棋，股價HK$8.08的「P/B值」僅為0.69倍，可能還低於1998和2003的危機時期之估值

無論如何，又一次証明各大財經傳媒的質素每況日下，若然不是成為驚弓之鳥.......


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Trading Statement/Profit Warning/Issue of Price Sensitive Information

The financial results of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited ("Cathay Pacific") for 2008 are expected to be disappointing. Fuel prices have fallen substantially and this provides welcome relief. However, two other factors are expected to affect the year's results adversely. These factors are weakness in revenue and losses on certain fuel hedging contracts.

Background
This trading statement is released in the light of material changes in the trading environment for Cathay Pacific since its interim results for the first half of 2008 were announced on 6th August 2008. At that time, Cathay Pacific’s results continued to be materially and adversely affected by the high price of fuel. The average price paid by Cathay Pacific for fuel in the first half of 2008 was 60% above that paid in the first half of 2007. At its peak in July 2008, the spot price for jet fuel was US$181.8 per barrel. Since then the spot price has fallen to US$76.7 per barrel. This provides welcome relief. However, two other factors are expected to affect the year’s results adversely, and they are accordingly still expected to be disappointing. These factors are weakness in revenue and losses on certain fuel hedging contracts.

Weakness in revenue
Revenue has started to weaken materially. This reflects in particular a significant strengthening of the US dollar (against currencies in which Cathay Pacific earns a significant portion of its revenue) and reduced first and business class travel and cargo volumes in the current adverse financial and economic circumstances.

Adverse currency movements are expected to reduce passenger revenues in Hong Kong dollar terms for the remainder of 2008. First and business class advance bookings are showing year-on-year declines, while available capacity has increased. Corporate travel volumes in all classes are of concern as corporate clients begin to impose stricter travel policies on their employees. Demand for economy class seats is also weaker than earlier in the year.

The most recent figures for cargo volumes and revenues show declines against the comparable period in 2007. Continued declines are expected for the remainder of 2008, reflecting increased competition, overcapacity and, to a lesser extent, adverse currency movements.

The full impact of the expansion of Taiwan-Mainland China cross-strait flights remains to be seen, but can be expected to put additional pressure on passenger and cargo revenues.

Losses on fuel hedging contracts
The purpose of entering into fuel hedging contracts (principally in the form of Brent options) is to give a degree of certainty to the price of fuel and protection against price increases. Under accounting principles generally accepted in Hong Kong, fuel hedging contracts are marked to market through the profit and loss account. The effect of marking these contracts to market is to transfer to the current accounting period the fair value of the benefit gained or loss incurred from the contracts.

The recent rapid fall in the jet fuel price has caused mark to market losses to be incurred on certain fuel hedging contracts. Along with many airlines, Cathay Pacific enters into hedging contracts the economic effect of which is equivalent to entitling (i) Cathay Pacific to buy fuel from the contract counterparties in future periods at specified prices and (ii) the contract counterparties to sell fuel to Cathay Pacific in future periods at specified prices. In any one hedging contract, the price at which Cathay Pacific is effectively entitled to buy fuel will be considerably higher than that at which the counterparty is effectively entitled to sell fuel.

The grant to counterparties of effective rights to sell fuel reduces materially the cost to Cathay Pacific of hedging against increases in fuel prices. Depending on future movements in the spot fuel price, the effect of the relevant hedging contracts is that Cathay Pacific's future effective cost of obtaining fuel could be higher than they would have been if Cathay Pacific had not entered into them. It is Cathay Pacific’s policy not to enter into hedging contracts which in the aggregate relate to volumes which exceed its expected commercial requirements for fuel.

The fuel price has fallen below the level at which certain contract counterparties will be effectively entitled to sell fuel at certain future dates up to 2011. Cathay Pacific is required to account for the fair value of the difference between the spot price of fuel and the price at which the counterparties are effectively entitled to sell in future periods as mark to market losses. The result is a mismatch, in that the full benefit of paying lower fuel prices for the hedged fuel will only arise in future periods. Unrealised mark to market losses on fuel hedging contracts incurred by Cathay Pacific as at 31st October 2008 are estimated to be HK$2.8 billion. The unrealised mark to market losses at the end of September were HK$630 million. It is important to note that these are not cash losses. The amount of losses actually realised and payable will depend on future movements in fuel prices. Up to 31st October 2008, net realised gains on fuel hedging contracts were HK$150 million.

To set the 31st October 2008 mark to market figure in context, Cathay Pacific's total expenditure on fuel in 2008 is expected to be around HK$40 billion (and, if jet fuel prices had remained at their July peak, would have been around HK$47 billion).

Investors are advised to exercise caution in dealing in shares of Cathay Pacific.