正所謂爛牌有爛牌既打法。之前看錯形勢，倒不如停下來思索下，想想如何一步一步收復失地。有時侯，勝負並非絕對，反而逆境中打得好滿足感可能還要大。
內房股，打不得，宏調未散。
黃金煤炭股，估值下調未完，亦不能。
國內金融股，還欠東風，若然H股反彈應是箭頭。
中國內需股，市場還未恢復信心，宜等待低位。
二三線中資股，已經草木皆兵，可能對著市場幹拿不到甚麼甜頭。
在這情況下，「老朋友」總是不離不棄，适一直默默予以支持，相信自從08年1月份開始的大跌市，不少投資者更被一些傳統股票救回一命。老朋友，感謝你們，你們的年代還未過去:
匯控 (5)
太古A (19)
恆生 (11)
渣打 (2888)
宏利 (945)
中電 (2)
恆隆地產 (101)
ASM太平洋 (522)
思捷 (330)
利豐 (494)
有趣的是，正當市場陷於恐懼之際，上述老牌股票以穩健財政，以及有長年派發股息紀錄的大價股，有能力安撫股東。正所謂太陽底下並無新事，投資者始終對這些好公司投下信任一票，或將之保持為投資組合其一要員。
經一番調整後，筆者完成「穩守突擊」部署，而組合以均衡分散(Diversification)為戰略重心，並加入多年一直擦肩而過的國泰(293)，一步一步走向另一高峰......
五大持倉(大約佔組合的75%左右):
利豐(494) (16% - 22%)
渣打(2888) (16% - 22%)
平保(2318) (10% - 15%)
招行(3968) (10% - 15%)
國泰(293) (10% - 15%)
Disclaimer: 本網頁屬個人網誌，並不會給予任何投資建議。本網頁的一切言論並不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。本人亦無法保證網站內容的真確性及原整性。請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求証分析，一切賺蝕得失，概與本人無涉。
16 則留言:
忠言: 國泰要不得.
並非因為油價已對沖, 並非因為低pe, 更非因為現金價值高. 而是因為"cycle".
你o既組合仍然沒有對沖現階段最決定性o既風險: economic recession risk~
Albert:
The bear market just started; if you don't have bear strategy, then you make another mistake.......
it's doesn't matter whether it's bear/bull, it matter only how you adjust your portfolio.
好文章﹗Your Fans.
This is my blog.
請多多指教和支持。
http://ecmoneyblog.blogspot.com
內房好大劑.
「財經」話: 於08年1月3日公布左新既宏調法規 ,計到2008年6月30日為止，如果有地閒置2年, 就要無償沒收, (而閒置1-2年 or (土地買左1-2年 and (inject less than 25% capital or 工程完成 less than 1/3 既)), 既收20% tax on land cost.
依半年樓價generally 都係要跌, 因為全人類都要資金趕工起樓, 都係唔好理個NAV住, 真係要睇睇08 interim 佢地有冇比人收地/ 狂收稅先. 唔夠人力物力趕工/ 土儲太多起唔切果d 真係係咁先...
如果香港政府宣佈地產股既土儲兩年唔起要「無償沒收」, 你話佢地要跌幾多成?
借錢太多比地產股既bank 都有風險, 國家沒收土地既權力係不可抗力, 比佢地收回抵押品的權力大.
Wong:
Cyclical is my appetite, especially when everybody dislike it. Stressing to the extreme case, if another SARS clouds on us, Cathay Pacific may fall to around HK$8/HK$9. But don't forget that the value of the bearish case should be at least HK$12, given the newly-added stake in Air China & the full integration of Dragonair. During SARS & 1998 financial crisis, Cathay Pacific merely held a minotiry interest in Dragonair.
On one hand, economic recession risk is unliklely to hedge against, unless you invests in suprenational bonds or utilities, and these investments are likely to yield very low return.
On another hand, I see no immediate threat of global depression. Even should this happen, I believe my portfolio is likely to weather against that. At the bottom line, these shares can survive and I may still be a gainer after decade....
Anyway, thanks!
David,
Bear is not bearish unless you have a reasonable ground on a variety of factors --> Global economy, industry, overall company prospects & stock market valuations.
Similarly, Bull is not Bullish just because the market has passed the 250-MA level......
亦易:
Thanks!
To benefit from Ma's Victory, one may consider:
- Xiamen Port (3378)
- Fubon Bank (HK) (636)
However, I am afraid the buying opportunities of them have passed! I may advise people to start to consider the "Profit Realization" plan for these 2 counters.
P.S. Xiamen Port has been mentioned few weeks ago as my 2008 confident pick. Nevertheless, it may not be the buy-&-hold type company
會計仔:
You're right about that, the 2nd-tier & 3rd-tiers may face serious troubles in cash-flow in near future. Many of the small players may get killed. From the positive side, this mean the market is doing its job ---> "汰弱留強" or "natural selection". so, stick on the quality players when they fall more.
Nevertheless, PRC-property share is not my pick at this moment.
However, I may consider some first-tier players with solid CF from leasing properties some months later, should price trade deeply below their NAVs.
Timing is a concern, but as long as we can assure the quality ones can weather the "Cash-Flow" crisis, I think it's alright to start accumulating them when they're under distressed prices.
Nevertheless, few points may be noted:
1) Position in the PRC property sector should be strictly limited, given the unfavorable near-term prospect
2) so....Get prepared for a prolonged war!!
3) Stick on the first-tier developers with solid leasing portfolio and diversified geographical presence.
4) Point (3) implies stick on the players with steady Cash Flow and not-too-bad property sales ability
富貴險中求，小心一點未嘗不可，同時亦不宜操之過急。
So, what's the characteristic of cyclic stocks? which pt should we buy at? cycle trough or cycle peak? what's characteristic of peak? and how's it like at the trough?
I think you dont really understand how cyclical stock work like.
Wong:
I don't think I have the responsibility to disclose everything for my CX investment. What I can say this satisfies my "Risk & Return" profile after my homework.
One more thing, I don't prefer classifying companies in a rigid way, although some differentiation is always necessary.
What I can say is that each people has different insight, preference and risk-tolerance for investment.
More importantly, time will tell who's right or wrong; nevertheless, I may not spend my time on the fruitless discussion at this moment.
So.....good luck to you!
Albert:
"Bull is not Bullish just because the market has passed the ..."
這是你想當然的論據，因為你並不明白技術指標所代表的意思，例如，dow theory 為什麼要道指及運輸分類指數同步呢？
簡而言之，「大市不會因為什麼技術指標便升或跌」，但大市卻會因為指標所代表的意義，有較高機會升或跌。
例如，某總統候選人領先若干百分點，便預測勝算如何。這都是利用統計數據去分析、預測結果，play the odds.....
你認為 "unless you have a reasonable ground on a variety of factors --> Global economy,...."
但你卻忘記股市走在經濟前面，試問如何能夠用滯後的數據去預測胶市呢。
David Kong:
Study more on "Peter Lynch", "Sir John Templeton", "Jim Roger", "Benjamin Graham" and "Warren Buffett". Probably you still have too far to go.....
Besides, you have to study more on "Economics", particularly "Asymetric Information".
What I can say is that market is generally efficient, but it can be out-of-order, sometimes.
What a responsible investor has to do is NOT to follow the technical trend, but to understand the business, the associated industries, the management quality & more importantly, the INDUSTRY & BUSINESS EARNINGS PROSPECTS UNDER BEST GUESS. BUT WITHOUT STUDYING THE EXISTING INFORMATION, ONE HAVE NO GROUND TO GET ANY INSIGHTS ON THE FUTURE. One invests in a part of business, but not on the chart.
Well.....some more you may need to put more effort...history, philosophy & probably a mind to embrace other thinking......
Ooop, now i know your philosophy of investment: INSIGHT.
And probably more fruitful discuz would lie on over-optimistic advises only.
Now, i know how unwelcome reverse advise is.
And, i wouldn't be wasting time on reading blogs that i falsely admired in the past.
「樹大招風」 / . \
"Now, i know how unwelcome reverse advise is." <--想想他人的同時,想想自己。
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每個人既投資策略都唔同(無絕對既對/錯吧)
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能正面既討論是雙勝的基本 <-- 相反的話真的浪費時間,這在別的blogger裡出現了,作為這裡的一位小讀者,我不想這裡也被污染。放開負面的思想吧,能否正面一點?
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