要鄭重重申一點，本部落客(Blog)歡迎自由及正面的對話，筆者並不會因為人家有不同意見而作出打壓。至低限度，筆者會盡力去維持言論自由，筆者並真心感謝各方好友多個月來的支持。
無論如何，在討論時希望各位能夠留意以下幾點:
1) 各位應以禮貌和尊重為談話應有的態度。
2) 在沒有合理理據下對人作出人身攻擊是不能容忍。
3) 同樣地，在沒有合理理據下而否定其他人的論據是不能接受的。
4) 在沒有合理理據下而否定其他人的投資能力是不能接受的。
5) 換句說話，無理的指控、無中生有的謠言、或者是過份的先入為主的主觀意見，全部不能接受。
6) 筆者歡迎來自不同派系的意見。不論是技術派、或是末世教派，只要閣下的說話言之成理，筆者並不會干涉。即使認定明年是世界末日，亦須說明其因。
7) 另外，筆者並沒有責任去透露所有有關自己對某個經濟、行業或個股的詳情。始終每一個人有自己的知識產權，商業和金融市場亦是如此運作。當然，善意和對等的對話可能令多方分享更多的資訊和意見。
舉個例子，一句「Cyclical」而否定及批評一項投資決定，同時亦無合理的理據去推論或証明為何不好。坦白說，筆者絕不會容忍這類不合理的指控。
劣質的讀者(所指的是態度上的差劣)，老實說，本人並不在乎其去留。
無論如何，筆者再次感謝多個月來支持本部落客的各方好友和過路客，並希望各位投資路上愉快!
12 則留言:
每一個人有自己的知識產權← 講得好! 個人無條件的分享卻被當成老奉, 這是最無癮的事。
香港網誌和新聞組的一個常見現象，當一個地方開始稍有人/名氣，就會有類似的留言阻礙正常開放的討論和交流，有時確實感到很無奈
^^
what's cyclic? big ups and big downs, can be classified in 3 types: growing cyclic, plain cyclic, declining cylic.
growing cyclic, top of every wave is higher than before, e.g 347, profit CAGR >50% in a 10-year time, not counting shares placement dilution and RMB ex rate change
pain cycle, top and down of every wave similar to previous, e.g. TVB
declining cyclic, top and bottom of every wave lower than b4, e.g. SCMP main operations (excl the properties it holds), its net revenue for a job ad is just 20% of its paper ad, as time goes by, more and people would use net ad, its paper ad competitive adv would be defeated by net ad, which it has no comp. adv.
293 should be a mild-medium growing cyclic, considering rising pass. but falling cargo, due to improving mainland airports
Thanks all.
Yes, "會計仔". Cyclicals are shares that their earnings are volatile due to various fundamental factors:
1) Revenue change, usually apply for CapEx / Fixed-Assets / commodity related companies, like equipment makers, ship builders and the miners. These companies tend to have stable margin but volatile revenue. Strictly speaking, property developers that rely on residential unit sales also belong to this category.
2) High fixed cost structure, making the earnings very volatile despite relatively stable revenue. Examples are airlines, property agent Midland & the automakers. These companies tend to have relatively steady revenue (I mean +/- 15%) but unstable profit.
3) For asset-based companies holding properties, oil reserve and precious metals, the values of these companies tend to fluctuate along with their underlying assets. They're also cyclical in terms of value.
Uptrend/flat/downtrend cyclicals depend on which country &/or industry the company is located at. Of course, the management vision and corporate strategy may also alter that partly. The cases of CX and ASM Pacific are examples showing how good companies can modify its cyclical nature from "Flat"/"Downtrend" to "Uptrend".
同意﹗ Your suggestion and information is your treasure knowledge ! 每一個人有自己的知識產權!
永遠支持你﹗加油! Albert!
請多多指教和支持。
http://ecmoneyblog.blogspot.com
我先誠實一句，我每天都會抄別人的或其他博客的文章，當自己的Blog為文件庫，不過我當然留下你原文連結啦，我也有複製過你的文章，如
http://space.zkiz.com/?38/viewspace-1417.html
未知是否可以?
如有任何不便，先說聲對不起。
Great Soup:
轉蛓當然是不成問題。我還要多謝你幫我個Blog免費宣傳!!
善系緣，惡亦是緣。
隨遇隨安。
Thanks, Seiko :P
Probably my fault comes from the problem as i act who i am, and say what i say. I believe the one who mind wont care, the one who care dont mind. Now, i know my words carry no weighting here. I will disappear and apologize for my annoying action.
Hi Wong:
只要是合乎對等、理性和互利的原則下，這裡是歡迎任何人。
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