1) 臺灣海峽政治環境轉穩
2) 歐美金融股由弱轉強
3) 亞洲股票估值開始吸引
4) 亞洲經濟基調堅固 (事實上，一直是這樣)
5) 商品(尤其是避險的黃金)價格轉勢向下
6) 不少「Margin Traders」 / 「Accumulator 持有者」已被迫在低位沽出手頭上的「優質中資股」
7) 公用股繼續被沽售
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12 則留言:
and, every Mar, JPY coms need to remit the USD and EUR earned back to JPY for dividends, making JPY very strong and unwind carried trade, seems ended
今次真定假丫~~~ 呢排波動咁大都係小心的好
haha.....no 100% guarantee, but the signals have turned positive, from the fundamental perspective.
You may feel that if observing the US & European stock markets over the weeks....
From my experience, the "surrender of the margin traders" and the "selling of the utilities" are quite reliable signals.
The people with less risk management & financial strength have to surrender their quality shares, before the true rebound occurs.
The point of "會計仔" is interesting, although I don't monitor the FX market frequently. Anyway, the reversed direction of JPY/USD is another signal...
it is for a strike back, not an all-out attack!
People think that US home sales qty figure is a good sign. However, HK people dont realise it is a qty modest up driven by a price greatly down reported by CNN, suggesting more & more US people have surrendered their unrealistic housing price selling price targets, earnings-wise it is....
around 15-4, another peak for US financials reporting..
都係看長期比較好, 短期估不到的....
目前估到底都無錢買.....
To Forever
Hi! Which one will you hold ?
Did you remember me?
http://ecmoneyblog.blogspot.com
Dear Albert,
After reading your post today, which stocks will you suggest?
Thanks.
Hi 亦易:
I may give you some hints. Nevertheless, nothing is 100% guaranteed.
"歐美金融股由弱轉強"
"國內金融股，還欠東風，若然H股反彈應是箭頭"
公用指仲日日升bor
幾時繼續被沽售?
To Albert,
路過想留言, 以你舉出那七個論點,我十分贊成「亞洲經濟基調堅固」及「估值吸引」這兩個論點....其實所謂的「Decoupling」及「re-coupling」,在經濟層面上已出現一定的decoupling,但金融體系則的coupling仍然相對上強,因為全球充斥對沖基金,令資金流動性加強,一旦歐美等大國經濟轉弱,資金流走的速度可以快到你吾信。但由於亞洲經濟基調良好,相信其防守力應較歐美股巿為高,因此,恒指的PE應較較美股高實屬合理。
不過以商品價格及公用股價格走勢去預測大巿氣氛則很容易被誤導。小弟現為商品分析員,商品走勢,若以standard deviation來量度,其波幅一向較股巿為高, 一時三刻的回吐可以在幾日內全部被收復。除非金價真如曹sir所指,失守850美元,否則現在斷言商品價格轉勢仍言之尚早。
而在accumlator上,我仍要覺得小心一點為上,小弟從事的公司仍不斷向客戶推銷新的accumulator,而比聯及麥格理等公司亦知道巿場開始害怕accumulator這個字,開始推出另一些新的衍生工具產品, 這些新產品賭博成份較accumulator有過之而無不及,但奇怪地,又好似好多客人有興趣玩咁....因此,小心衍生工具為大巿帶來下一波衝擊
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