是敗還是勝?

呢個世界十分有趣，又D野好似贏梗又唔一定贏，又時以為輸梗又有反敗為勝的機會......

商業世界到頭來還是「競爭優勢」和「現金流」的遊戲，汰弱留強亦是自然不過的事情。

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Cathay at 14 Times Profit Excludes China Revaluation


Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is getting an unanticipated benefit from record jet-fuel costs that have helped push the shares down almost 30 percent this year.

Hong Kong's largest airline flew 14 percent more passengers in the first half as higher fuel bills put cut-rate carrier Oasis Hong Kong Airlines out of business. Cathay's Chinese routes helped make the company's sales growth the second-fastest among the 13 airlines in the Bloomberg Asia Pacific Airlines Index, behind Australia's Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd.

The shares fell to their lowest valuation in almost two years on July 2 after the company said it couldn't predict the impact on earnings of a doubling in jet-fuel prices. The decline left Cathay valued at 14 times estimated 2008 profit, compared with an average of 16 for the index.

"The airline has almost reached the bottom," said Winson Fong, who oversees about US$3 billion at SG Asset Management in Hong Kong. "The stock is getting cheap and is becoming attractive for a long-term holding."

Chief Executive Officer Tony Tyler, 53, will announce first- half earnings tomorrow. The shares rose as much as 1.9 percent and remained unchanged in Hong Kong at 10:30 a.m.

Cathay, which has an alliance with Air China, filled 80 percent of seats this year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points. The higher sales come as the airline more than doubled fuel surcharges this year to counter higher costs.


28% Rise
The sales gain will help the shares rise 28 percent to HK$18.75, according to Mark Webb, an analyst at HSBC, who rates the carrier "overweight."

"Cathay's hub in Hong Kong has the best connectivity in Asia in terms of frequencies to key destinations," Webb said. The company's brand, location, financial strength and routes make it a "likely winner" in a high fuel-cost environment, he said.

"Cathay's service, compared to the Chinese airlines, is so much better," said Chris Folino, 33, a Hong Kong-based manufacturer who flies weekly. He said he prefers Cathay for long-haul flights and its Dragonair unit to visit the mainland cities of Hangzhou, Qingdao, Fuzhou and Shanghai.

Oasis Hong Kong Airlines, which flew to London and Vancouver, halted service on April 9 after 17 months, crippled by jet fuel as well as competition from Cathay Pacific and British Airways Plc.


Amassing Cash
Economy-class revenue for Cathay rose 14.9 percent last year, while first- and business-class sales increased 20.7 percent, the company said in its annual report. The growth helped the company more than double its cash and short-term investments to $869.5 million in 2007 over their level of three years before.

The carrier's cash ratio, an indicator of liquid assets compared to liabilities, is 70 percent, the fourth-highest in the Asia Pacific Airlines Index.

"Cathay's cash flow has been strong," said Louis Wong, a fund manager who oversees US$40 million at Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. "While other airlines are on their knees, Cathay is still able to survive."

The company's profit margin of 9.3 percent is almost double the average of 5.3 percent for the index, while its debt-to-asset ratio of 36 is lower than those of China Southern Airlines Co., China Eastern Airlines Co. and Air China Ltd., the country's three biggest carriers.


Pay Cut
All three increased surcharges and trimmed capacity to cope with higher fuel prices. China Southern cut the pay of executives, including Chairman Liu Shaoyong, 10 percent last month to help offset fuel costs. The shares of each have fallen more than half this year in Hong Kong trading.

Cathay hedged only 30 percent of its fuel needs for this year, half the level of Singapore Airlines Ltd.

Global airlines may report a collective loss of as much as US$6.1 billion this year as spiraling fuel costs and a slowing economy wipe out earnings, the International Air Transport Association said in June.

"Cathay is financially healthy, unlike mainland rivals," said Francis Chu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at South China Securities who advises buying shares. "Oil prices are already reflected in the share price and Cathay has opportunities."