黃金兵敗如山倒

其中致命原因是全球黃金需求於08年第2季按年下跌19%至735.6吨:
「In the second quarter, gold consumption fell to 735.6 tonnes, down 19 per cent against the same period last year, led by a 24 per cent drop in jewellery demand, the industry-backed World Gold Council said on Wednesday.」

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Demand weakness hurts gold
(FT -- August 13 2008)
By Javier Blas

Two pillars have supported the boom in gold prices in recent years: strong demand and lacklustre supply. The latter remains a robust buttress, but the foundations of the former are cracking under the weight of record prices.

In the second quarter, gold consumption fell to 735.6 tonnes, down 19 per cent against the same period last year, led by a 24 per cent drop in jewellery demand, the industry-backed World Gold Council said on Wednesday. That drop in consumption deepens a fall of 18 per cent in the first half of this year compared to the equivalent period last year.

The large contraction, analysts said, darkens the previously bright outlook for bullion. It also helps explain why gold prices, after hitting a record high of US$1,030.80 an ounce in March, have fallen back to just above US$800.

But the cracks in the demand pillar do not mean that gold prices are about to collapse to the US$250 an ounce low of 1999, nor that a correction to US$600 an ounce – the level of January 2007 – is on the cards, analysts said.

Suki Cooper, a precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital, said gold prices were more likely to trade between US$800-US$900 for the rest of this year and 2009.

Nevertheless, some investors have taken notice of the change in gold's fortunes and are liquidating their positions. "The speculative element is coming off," said Jill Leyland, economic advisor at the WGC in London.

The sudden resurgence of the dollar, and calming of fears about inflation have added to the selling. Indeed, the exit of speculative money can be seen in the bullion holdings of the world's largest gold exchange traded fund – the New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares – which fell on Tuesday to 659.03 tonnes, down 6.6 per cent from a peak of 705.9 tonnes last month.

One particular concern among investors is the plunge in gold demand in India, by far the world's largest consumer of gold. Between April and June, jewellery and investment demand fell there by 45 per cent. Demand also fell in Turkey and the Middle East, but held in China and rose strongly in Vietnam.

The WGC said in its quarterly Gold Demands Trends report that the primary factor driving consumption lower was the continued strength in the gold price and volatility.

"Deteriorating conditions across many economies...acted as a further barrier to spending on gold jewellery," it added, pointing to large falls in US, UK and Italian jewellery demand, particularly in the middle and lower end of the market.

However, Dave Russell, of Gold Investments in Dublin, said that the recent fall in gold prices has triggered renewed interest in bullion, with evidence of retail investment picking up. Other analysts said that consumption in India was also showing a rebound.

Investors, in any case, can count for the time being on the support of the supply pillar.

In the second quarter, gold output increased just 1 per cent compared with the same period of a year ago, and the advance was only possible because a large amount of old gold returned to the market in the form of scrap.

Indeed, mined gold – the main source of supply – fell 4 per cent in the quarter, with increases in Russia and China unable to offset falls in Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. Nevertheless, mined output could increase in the future as miners exhaust the buy-back of old price hedges, which until now have restrained production.

For that reason, the main risk for investors – although it does not appear imminent – is the emergence of a fissure in the supply pillar, just as the demand column continues to fracture.