不能不承認，2008年的環球金融市場的波動可謂是自1929年華爾街大股災以來最巨大的(當然美股不算是太可怕，但新興市場則是兵荒馬亂)。不是誇張，今次的殺傷力可說是等同1980+1987+1992+1998的結合:
1980年: 商品泡沫大爆破
1987年: 美國華爾街大瀉
1992年: 英鎊兌美元大貶值
1998年: 新興市場股樓匯三市大瀉
四合一的攻擊是十分可怕，更可怖的是不少人於08年2月至9月期間不斷上賊船(BRIC、外幣、石油、甚至近月的黃金)，全部摸頂。
坦言說，筆者能避開商品和外匯的世紀大陷阱，亦總算能從新興市場及時撤退(或者以「敦刻爾克大撤退」來形容更為貼切)，但仍只能說未去到「元氣大傷」的不利狀況。「戰鬥力」依然旺盛，豐厚股息每半年收一次(有些股票甚至有季度派息紀錄)，每晚覺照訓。
10月份，筆者完成了新興市場大撤退的後半部份，全數沽出渣打(2888)、平保(2318)以及招行(3968)的剩餘部位，而事後証明這些行動是有價值的。
再將資金不斷吸納宏利(945)和國泰(293)。
上述調配行動基於以下原因:
1) 強美元和「De-coupling Nonsense」的大趨勢下，未來1年新興市場冇運行
2) 商品市場大熊市剛開始，至少淡足5年
3) 全球大洗牌下，久經週期洗禮的老牌環球企業將會是未來5年的大贏家，「Market Share Expansion」是生存者的遊戲
4) 美國是重新帶動全球經濟的地方，隨之是英國。這是核心競爭優勢的議題
5) 油價暴瀉，再加上不少中小型航空公司已結業(一些大型航空公司近年更自廢式功)，就算全球Air Traffic向下，優質的美元區的環球航空公可將會十分受惠
6) 財息兼收的年代快要開始
7) 上述論點並非主流意見，亦令筆者十分放心
四大持倉(佔組合的90%左右):
宏利(945) (30% - 35%)
利豐(494) (25% - 30%)
國泰(293) (20% - 25%)
太古A(19) (10% - 15%)
20 則留言:
Dear Albert,
I am your long time fan.
Actually, I admire & agree with you most of the time. In this panic atmosphere, I have few questions for you (hope you don't mind)
1.) Base on your estimation, when will be the recovery period start ? End/2009 or.......?
2.) Base on Tony Measor said @ this week Next Magazine, he said we have only 2 ways for the second half of the game-----a.) Try to switch some of your stock which you think is cheap & have much more potential. Or b.) keep your existing Portfolio & do nothing. Wait 1 or 2 years, sure the price will be much more better, do you agree with him ?
3.) How do you think about #5 HSBC & #16 SHK ?
4.) Do you agree with Mr. Nouriel Roubini (the new Dr. Doom) about Hedge Fund Redemption Crisis will make the stock market even much worse than now ? One article at Oriental Daily Today also.
Thanks so much for your valuable opinion !
Love to read your blog always !
Philip
Hi Philip:
Thanks for your support, and I would like to share with you with my view (though they are not necessary correct).
1) Economic Recovery may begin in US, strong USD is one of the most reliable signs. I also note some improving (less negative) economic indicators from the biggest consumer in the world. However, it may take time before the US economy can boost the export from the emerging world.
2) Tony Measor is an admirable investor, I agree with his saying to keep the existing shares, if they've excellent business model and can keep steady dividend (cash flow). Examples could be Manulife & HSBC. However, I strongly disagree to hold any cyclicals or commodity, especially those in emerging markets, including China.
Switching to stocks with cheaper valuation and bigger potential upside is sensible. However one should be aware of the TIMING and POTENTIAL CATALYSTS in the next 12 months. For saying, I won't think PRC property shares are good buy now despite steep discount to NAV. Instead, I would wait for the property market in China to bottom and when more second-tier developers go out of business.
Anything that can't benefit from strong USD or potential US recovery may not be a good investment in 2009 (lack of catalyst).
3) HSBC should be a far better play compared to SHKP in the next 12 months. Under weak HK property market, I don't think SHKP can sell many units in 2009, thus implying slump in operating cash flow and dividend. Instead, HSBC can maintain a very steady dividend, and it is a potential beneficiary of US recovery.
Nevertheless, I may prefer to consider HSBC when Sterling Pound bottoms and the UK economy reaches its trough, which may occur by Jun-09.
4) Crazy Carry-trade unwinding (Strengthening JPY to 93) and panic selling on quality dividend shares are obvious signs for "Hedge Fund Redemption". This's what happening now. So the outlook should be better.
Dear Albert,
What are the reasons to support when you purchase manulife other than high growth in dividend?
Declaration: I don't have any stock on hand, just interest in how to evaluate the current price and future performance in order to make decision.
Best Regards
Tim
Dear Albert,
I am a shareholder of Manulife. I have added to my positions in October recently.
Outlook of Manulife is murky in the next 6 months. They might need to issue new equity to fund the reserves on their exposure to the equity markets.
Their stock lost 55% from October 1 to October 25. I supposed this factor has been more than discounted in its price right now.
Regards,
Albert
A correction of my last posting:
Manulife lost about 46% from October 1st to October 24th. From $36 to $19.32. This kind of punishment is excessive to a quality company like Manulife.
Their management insist they don't need to issue new equity for their exposure to variable annuities and seggregated funds.
Their next quarterly earnings report is November 8 2008.
http://www.manulife.com/corporate/corporate2.nsf/Public/corporate101308.html
My choice right now is:-
5 + 2628 + 941 + 3968(<10%) in view of the their management capability, business growth, cashflow / dividend, gearing, currency stability particularly RMB.
Timmy:
Compared to banks, Life-insurers are subject to no bad-debt or deposit withdrawal risk. Unless they do something very stupid like AIG has been doing (leveraged trading on the crappy assets; still AIG's life-insurance business still partly prevent it from bankrupt).
Even the best-managed banks like HSBC & JPM may have bad-debt risks around the globe (though little deposit withdrawl risk and lower bad debt risk compared to peers), Manulife is subject to far-lower risk.
Assuming a recessionary era around the globe in the next 3 years (the most bearish scenario), and US can merely maintain 0% to 0.5% annual real GDP growth, Manulife can still grow by expanding market share.
De-leveraging may not a favorable theme for banks, especially those located in emerging markets (Net interest margin will shrink and NPL will surge for banks in Europe and Emerging markets). Nevertheless, the quality giants can still enjoy the "Market-share Expansion" game from the Fallen angels.
Adjusted for the risk, growth potential and the SUSTAINABILITY of dividend yield (from cash flow), I prefer Manulife for the coming 6 to 12 months. Manulife yields a 08 forward yield of around 4.3%, which is still far higher than most PRC names and many HK names.
Hi Albert,
One more question, I do not have the details of the outstanding capital commitment of 293 but the figure 'Authorised and contracted for' as shown in the interim report amounted to 46,909 millions, which is appox. the same as the shareholders' equity. I just wonder how 293 handle it under the current economic circumstances.
Albert:
Yes, so we're very sure Manulife is an excellent company with strong cash flow and strict risk management. A very big difference compared to AIG, which has been doing foolish things (levergaed trading on the crappy assets/derivatives).
From the annual reports from Manulife, we can clearly know that MOST of its investment assets is allocated to Govt bond and diversified AAA bonds. They have equity investment, but should be in a limited manner. The company also actively disclosed their exposure to sub-primes and the WaMu/LEH securities shortly after market concern.
The management affirmed they will not cut the dividend in 2008, and I strongly believe their promise is valid.
除急:
Your picks (5+2628+941+2868) could be an amazing portfolio in the coming 3 to 5 years. However, I may show concern on the PRC economic risk, which will affect the earnings of CM Bank (3968) in the coming 12 months.
China Mobile (941) is subject to high policy-risk, and the government tmay adopt a "Balanced-market scenario", which may not be a too favorable development for China Mobile.
The only driver for China Mobile is moblie industry subscriber growth, other factors (Market Share, ARPU, profit margin, CapEx, Population Growth) are unfavorable in the coming years.
Study the Free Cash flow & balance sheet of CPA (293) and you may understand why the model is sustainable. Under sharply falling oil price, and lower-than-expected CapEx (Boeing will cut price and the airlines can slower its fleet expansion plan), 2009 outlook is not necessary bad.
Thank you for your reply. The lower-than-expected CapEx is what you know or just your guess.
Base on your comment, in the upcoming 6-12months, reducing risk of your portfolio is one of your strategies, and that is why you select manulife. Is that right? However, as the other albert mention, the stock price has dropped over 40% within a month, and a 4% dividend yield cannot compensate for the loss. how do you deal with the short term fall and what is the reason behind this fall?
Also, how does it relate to 0%-.5% GDP growth in order to get the Market Share? I don't get the logic, would you mind please explain further?
Hi Albert,
Your MFC 4.3% dividend yield is before or after the withholding tax 30%(?), and the exchange rate of CAD will affect the div growth of MFC or not? Also comparing the business growth of 2628 and 945, I am sure 2628 will be better than 945, pls let us know more insight regarding your stockpick. Thanks!
Timmy:
Past price performance is the LEAST IMPORTANT factor to decide whether to buy/sell a stock. Think as if you have no position, and ask yourelf whether you're willing to buy the shares, after adjusting for risk/return/dividend yield/timing/catalysts.
Manulife is very yummy play in my eye, and it's very comfortable to me that most people still think it's a boring stock.
The fall of AIG is an interesting story to note. You can ask the "C9" in HK if they are willing to find AIA for insurance/investment contracts.
除急:
Over 55% of Manulife business is conducted in US (after the John Hancock M&A), and another 5% to 10% in HK. Very reasonably can I assume it as a USD play. According to my understanding, divdend paid to HK shareholders is not subject to divdend-withold tax.
Growth is not a theme in 2009, and China Life is subject to further de-rating risk, particularly under the weak A-share market, relatively high P/EV (or P/B) and low dividend yield (around 1.5% in 2008). Another point to note, most professional investors have returned to the US (Strong USD), not a good sign for all emerging market (including the PRC) names.
Thank you!
Thank you Albert!
risk/return/dividend yield/timing/catalysts are the intrinsic value of the stock. These factors should weigh more than the past price performance. Thank you once again!
Tim
經營困難 國泰擬再出招
2008年10月27日
【明報專訊】面對載客量持續下跌，國泰航空(0293)繼凍結聘用人手後，表示正檢討預算，將會推出新措施控制成本....最受金融海嘯打擊的，是盈利最豐厚的長程頭等及商務客位業務，湯彥麟指由於客戶緊縮開支及取消出差，頭等客位收入大跌。
Was the management too optimistic one year ago for making the decision of 4.8 billion capex? I think the situation is worse than the oil price increase coupled with the excess capex under the current economic condition.
Albert, looking forward to having your valuable analysis again.
This's the feeling I like when the public only focuses on potential falling traffic, and ignores all the +ve catalysts and historical lowest valuation.
Good speculative value, I can say :)
Hi, Albert:
The fear & panic seems endless...
Since"Growth is not a theme in 2009, and China Life is subject to further de-rating risk", do you think it is still a good idea "switching part of China Life to Manulife" in current price?
Andy
Andy:
HK shares are oversold today, including some quality non-cyclical PRC names (China Life, telecoms, CRE...etc). I can do many close-peer comparisons and the conclusion is that HK is over-done today. British Airways (down 6%) & Cathay Pacific (down 20% despite up 3% in morning session) is an excellent pair to state the flaw in HK.
Lets await US market, and DJ futures merely falls 36 points (21:16pm HKT), again affirming my thought of panic selling.
Manulife (MFC US) will be a good test tonight, and I bet it will close handsomely higher than the HK price of HK$133.8
Good luck man, the sunshine is not far away as more people believes HSI will breach 10,000. The dividend-rich survivor play will be amazing :)
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