新興市場的風險

一直有留意本部落格的讀者應該不難察覺筆者近月來開始對亞洲市場的看法變得十分審慎，可以借機再道出箇中原因:

1) 2006年至2007年，遊資太多以及弱美元令全球資金炒賣各新興市場的房地產、股市，並有不少熱錢投資於區內的基建、生產線、地產發展等商業投資項目。
2) 弱美元，再加上經濟前景不俗令不少亞洲企業借入大量美元債
3) 在新興市場的需求強勁，再加上全球資金炒賣的推波助瀾下，各商品價格暴升至經濟不能維持的水平，亦即大泡沫
4) 過度投資亦導致生產量開始過剩的情況，其後的需求放緩是十分可怕的情況
5) 去到2007年末，2008年初，房地產和股票的價格達到過熱的水平，其中以中印兩地的泡沬更是大得可怕。

正所謂物極必反，不管源頭是美國經濟放緩、歐洲經濟放緩、全球金融危機、商品價格所導致的通漲問題、或是有人獲利回吐也好，最後都是導致最麻煩的情況 --- 熱錢流走(沒錯，全球最有錢的還是歐美的投資者和企業)

接著的反高潮是不能避免(問題是震盪有多少)，資產價格大瀉、貸款放緩、需求放緩、企業盈利率下跌、亞洲貨幣貶值、以亞洲貨幣計的債務大增、失業率上升(低增值製造業職位的穩定性不高)、銀行壞帳大增.......

上述負面趨勢當然有停止的一天，不過還是要等待美國經濟復蘇所推動的亞洲出口增長，另外又要等待亞洲資產價格大幅調整、利息見底、銀行壞帳以及失業率見頂吧!

沒錯，內需以及政府持有的財富是能夠減低上述的震盪，但仍無法阻止大形勢的發生。De-Coupling還是說笑好吧，全球經濟一脈相連(萬物相依而生)，除非自己完全不出口，不進口。

這就是經濟的現實!

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ASIAN PAIN
(Financial Times; 1 Oct 08)

It's official: we are all in this mess together. Panic engulfed Asia, which woke on Tuesday to find US politicians had thrown out the $700bn bail-out plan. Stock markets tumbled and central banks were obliged to pump in cash. For Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest bank by assets, the math was especially graphic: its $9bn investment into Morgan Stanley, announced late Monday night, was worth some $500m less the next morning.

Asia has always been more than an interested bystander. On the one hand, cash piles are robust – central banks in the region hold roughly $4,000bn of reserves – as are balance sheets. Hence the ability to pounce when bargains emerge. But external economic slowdown swiftly feeds through to the export-intensive region. The inevitable flight to safety means more foreign capital leaving emerging Asia, marking down assets and weakening currencies. Even absent a co-ordinated global effort, Asian monetary policy will necessarily switch to easing; receding inflationary pressures have already enabled China to move. Further fiscal expansion looks inevitable.

Drilling down, vulnerable sectors include Australian and Korean banks. Both, unlike their neighbours, lend more than they take in deposits and are reliant on overseas markets for funding – to the tune of one-third of the loan book in the case of Aussie lenders. Frothy property markets, especially in the financial centres of Hong Kong and Singapore, are another case in point, especially as banks slash staff and, with them, home rental allowances. HSBC this week also hiked Hong Kong mortgage rates by 50 basis points, dealing another blow to an already falling market. And there could be further to go: as Citigroup points out, residential prices were 33 per cent lower in 1998, during the Asian financial crisis. Meanwhile China, notwithstanding its rhetoric about learning from the US crisis, is merrily ploughing a similar path – seeking to galvanise the property market by loosening loan to value requirements on new home purchases. Asian pain is just starting.