筆者相信幾乎街上所有人都不看好國泰(293)，或者是不敢玩，表面原因如下:
1) 高油價，將會令成本上升
2) 美國經濟增長放緩，並會拖垮全球經濟，因此「Yield」和「Load Factor」08及09年將會下降
3) 有人更大聲說「Global Depression」
然而，筆者有時喜歡逆向思考，與群眾對著幹。當然，此舉是有充份理據和風險評估，原因亦曾說過，亦不想再重複。
近日，國泰高姿態地公佈其新一代的「機艙座位設計」，並命名為「完美飛行體驗」。其中「Business Class」及「First Class」的座位，更猶如一間小型睡房般。(詳情可參考國泰網站)
(http://www.cathaypacific.com/cpa/zh_INTL/whatonboard)
若然動下腦筋，不難想像國泰此舉能提高其「Competitive Advantage」，方便日後加機票價格。公司高層數星期之前指出能夠以提高機票的方法來應付高油價，看來他們是「言出必行」一輩。
筆者相信一點: 「以最終市場價格為準，講多無謂」。另外，市場是以「Forward Looking」的原理下運作，而且既成事實的消息通常已反映於市價內。
投資及投機者能做的，便是估計能變化的因素，並作出相應行動。當然，有時在市場嚴重失效(大恐慌、或是Risk Premium大升)下，投資者能有一些套利的機會。
有趣的是，市場內有不少人過度依賴「既成事實的因素」來投資，筆者只能說「冇眼睇」.....
2 則留言:
Dear Sir,
I am your fan for a long time. I have one question for you. I need to set up an investment fund for my retired life, and hopefully the dividend is around 6.5% for my daily expenses. What is your suggestion ?
Thanks a lot !
Yours fan
Hi Philp,
Thanks for your support.
Probably quality stocks like HSBC (5), Swire A (19), CLP (2), Standard Chartered (2888), Hang Seng bank (11) are suitable for you, since you might need steady cash flow from dividend payment and your risk tolerance is not high.
It is interesting to note that these companies have survived many economic cycles over the past decades, and I believe they are likely to be your guardians in the coming years.
Nevertheless, it is very hard to expect a very handsome dividend yield of 6.5% for the blue-chip shares I recommend. However, a gross return (dividend + capital growth) of around 10% should be feasible.
Good luck!
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