簡單一點說，「TED Spread (Treasury & EuroDollar Spread)」是指金融市場需要的「Risk Premium」，如下:
TED Spread = LIBOR - 3-Month US T-Bill Yield
在金融風暴下，近日「TED Spread」由8月份的1%大升至10月3日的3.87%，這亦暗示銀行之間的同業拆息(Inter-bank Rate)由3%p.a.大升至5.87%p.a.(如下)。
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND)
存款基數不強健或自由現金流不強的金融機構自然麻煩，但其實同時亦影響一些現金流穩定、以及08及09年有很高機會維持07年股息的高息股(如下)。不少優質的收息股近一兩個星期突然被人大量沽售，即使本港經濟放緩亦不太像會嚴重地影響她們的來年的股息(或許恆生銀行仍有本身的風險):
電盈(8)
恆生(11)
希慎(14)
太古A(19)
利豐(494)
TVB (511)
領匯(823)
若然要拆局，「TED Spread」大升可能是主要原因。正當「Money Market」可以達6%p.a.的回報下，機構投資者可能要求收息股須要給予較高的股息率(Dividend Yield)。
然而，低利息是未來數年環球的趨勢，而正當金融市場的不明朗因素減弱後(TED Spread下降至1%至2%左右)，市場可能會重新垂青這些穩健的收息股。
但為何匯控(5)、維他奶(345)以及宏利(945)等收息股的股價仍然穩定? 原因十分簡單，這類股票要不主要於歐美市場內交易，便是本身的股息率已經很高。
7 則留言:
美國救市方案通過後，TED Spread仍然高企，看來各國央行只好聯手減息！
聰聰
http://sclastro_super.mysinablog.com
100% agree, some names are becoming interesting, but I won't put L&F in the same category as their business model (of acquisition) is capital-hungry. Thanks for the blog is enlightening.
Do u really think Li & Fung is in lack of Capital, and has low organic growth without M&A??
You may be advised to conduct deeper research on its business model, cash flow and its industry.
請問知不知道中國人壽有沒有持有有毒債券?有多少?
Well u might be right and I respect ur opinion.
Just a quick note, as at H108, L&F has HK$1.5bn cash, HK$1.4bn st-bank loan/OD & HK$5.8bn long term liabilities (3.8bn were notes), with equity of HK$9.7bn, so net gearing (c58%) not threatening but also not low.
Company hist. trades at high PE as L&F's record of M&A/organic growth has always exceeded market expectation (and its own 3-yrs plan guidance). Nevertheless, L&F might find it harder to raise gearing further in current climate also market might worry about sh-term CP rollover risk (post GE) which could limit upside.
Finally I am wary of their "organic growth", as company operates in black box style and most sell-side analysts based their organic growth assumptions for the softgoods, hardgoods etc on company guidance despite mounting evidence of a more severe recession ahead.
Nevertheless LF now trades on c18x fwd PE and maybe is attractive enough for this class name. Look fwd to hear from u on this.
你的BLOG叫"分析員的告白"
請問你的職業真的是分析員嗎?
kai:
You may have forgotten the share placement to Temasek few weeks ago :)
Jonathan:
大可以從小弟的思路和寫作手法，估下是真還是假 ^_~
II:
中人壽看似安全!
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