投資哲學


萬法歸一 ,股海唯心至上,到頭來無一法可得,亦無甚麽可失

投機、投資、或中短線交易,只要方法得當,則殊途同歸,並無對錯之分

投資的最高境界並非贏大錢,而是克服心魔


星期日, 12月 31, 2006

價值鏈雙雄

每當想起利豐貿易(494),筆者自不然會聯想到台灣EMS巨人鴻海集團,旗下手機(Hand-Held)業務便是由恆指藍籌富士康(Foxconn)(2038)負責。雖然利豐和鴻海分別涉及不同的產品(利豐: Softgoods & Hardgoods等消費產品; 鴻海: 電子產品,如手機、電腦等),但兩者的競爭優勢不謀而合 ------ 擁有一個完善的供應鏈管理(Supply chain management)能力。

在現今競爭激烈的市場中,大客戶要求供應商能在1)指定時間(Time)內在2)指定價格(Price)付運3)指定質素(Quality)及數量(Quantity)的產品。要達到此等要求,企業必定擁有勝人一籌的Business Model。



利豐的"Soft 3 Dollars"哲學

"Soft 3 Dollars",所指一件總成本為四元的產品中,僅一元為原料及直接生產成本,另外三元為"Intangible costs",如"Design"、"Purchasing"、"Warehousing"、"Time"及"Distribution"的非直接成本。順帶一提,往往短線的商家僅考慮直接生產成本,而忽略最重要的Intangible部份,從而增加總成本。利豐的增值點在於降低總成本下,為客戶準時付運優質產品。

當客戶落單時,利豐的Business Unit(一個Unit服務一個大客戶)並立即Design產品及計劃生產程序,同時從廠商網絡(分佈亞太區內)中選擇最恰當的"Parts Suppliers"; 在進行一連串的生產、品質管理及物流活動後,利豐便按時將商品運到客戶手上。毫無疑問,這競爭優勢很難被取代,尤其是當以往的主要Players(如英之傑貿易、太古貿易及Colby)已被利豐收購。在Fragmented Softgood Trading Market下,前景似乎十分明顯!



鴻海的"eCMMS Business Model"及模具優勢

"CMMS"中的英文字分別代表四項主要商業元素,如下:
1) C (Components),指Consumer Electronic產品的"基本零組件"(如手機的彩屏、Panel),鴻海向其Suppliers購入Components,並建立Inventory管理系統。另外,鴻海自已亦製造一些Components,如Connectors及機殼等等
2) M (Modules),即是由Components組合而成的"模組",通常是standardized,並能可以直接砌入產品(如連接PCB,Display-IC晶片及Panel後的彩屏模組)
3) M (Move),指Components、Modules及製成品的流動,亦暗示一個Efficient的製造(Assembly)流程及Supply chain Management
4) S (Service),與ODM及OEM廠不同,鴻海為客戶提供售後服務; 於手機業務,鴻海(於富士康中執行)甚至提供手機的"設計代工"。
5) e (Electronic),即是"資訊流","Information Flow"對於"Supply chain Management"來說是十分重要,尤其是在訊息萬千的商業世界中管理一個具規模的企業

不得不提,"精確之模具(Precision Mould)設計及制造能力"更是鴻海克服EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Service)廠其中一大"Bottle Neck"之秘密。正當一般EMS廠還要等待新產品的模具時,鴻海巳開始進行生產。



兩間企業的共通優勢在於其Supply Chain Management能力,並在合理價下提供"一條龍服務(One-Stop Service)",為客戶增值。


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12 則留言:

Wing 說...

494 提供的"services", 並非只係採購咁簡單, 而係value added, 並直接幫客人減省成本, 提升效率及盈利率, direct sourcing 係有心理影響, 但不能威脅494的優勢!

而且我深信歐洲的增張空間仲好大!

阿爾伯特 說...

Wing gets the point, and this is the core competitive advantage Li & Fung has. (i.e. Soft 3 Dollars Supply Chain Mgmt Philosophy)


Apart from that, I may want to ask a few questions on Wal-Mart Sourcing department:

1) Could it reduce overall costs (direct + indirect cost) as efficient as Li & Fung?
2) Besides, how's its sourcing network in Asia, as well as its supply-chain management?
3) How about its design and manufacturing planning abilities?


Are you aware of the fact that Wal-Mart can only source for itself, cos its retailing business already"得罪"other Big US Retailers. Similar case happened for the EMS outsourcing industry, BenQ "得罪" Motorola by launching its brand couple of years ago. As such, Wal-Mart's sourcing department can not expand significantly!!

And it is the reason why Li & Fung states CLEARLY that it won't create any brand, to avoid business contradiction with clients. Instead, it helps brands (e.g. Levi) to conduct design, manufacturing planning and SCM activities......

Similarly, "鴻海" won't creat own brands to compete with Nokia, Motorola, Dell & HP.

Besides, as what being mentioned, the Global Trading / Sourcing market is fragmented with thousands of players. Li & Fung is the biggest players with an estimated market share of around 4%, the next biggest player from AUS is around 4 times smaller than the former. Making it less competitive, compared with the EMS sourcing industry, wheras Flextronics, "鴻海" and 3 more EMS giants share the cosnumer electronics EMS markets ---> RIVALARY


More info could be found from the book "供應鏈管理: 利豐集團的實踐經驗"...Enjoy Reading!!

阿爾伯特 說...

KQIS deal shows that the big retailers tend to outsource, instead of doing by themselves. Simply because the outsourcing houses in Asia do better work, particularly those owning strong SCM ability.

I am afriad not many Wal-Marts in the world, which can do the work as efficient as Li & Fung, and more importantly, with lower overall cost (i.e. Raw Material + Production + Warehousing + Logistiscs + Design + Time)

Cory 說...

係利和經銷/利豐之間, 我如何取捨?

Wing 說...

對direct sourcing有需求旳客戶, 自然唔係利豐的target customer

對利豐services有需求的客自然唔會用direct sourcing, 基本上各不相干!

而且494 的economic scale 已經大到冇乜對手, 優勢超卓!

利和, 利豐....根本唔同, 唔需要選擇! 亦冇必要比較!

阿爾伯特 說...

Cory:

To save my typing time, I may prefer using English to reply your concern on Integrated Distribution Services(2387; IDS).

IDS is originated from the M&A on Inchcape's "Distribution Business". Interesting to say, IDS has different 1) business model and 2) customer types, compared with sister-company "Li & Fung Trading (494; LF Trading)".

It is not fair to direct compare the 2 businesses, as if comparing "Apple" to "Orange". Nevertheless, worthwhile to note, both IDS & LF Trading both are virtually managed by the same mgmt group, and the competitve advantage lie on the group's:

1) Supply-Chain Management Ability &
2) Market Intelligence.

(Con't)

阿爾伯特 說...

1) Business Model:
IDS has 3 businesses, namely the "Logistics", "Manufacturing (on Drugs & FMCGs, Food)" & "Distribution/Marketing"; and clients are mainly multi-national brands (e.g. Heinz, Clorox, K Swiss, Abott, Kellogg's). You may regard these activities as "Outsourcing" as well.....

2) Clients & Markets
Clients are the MNCs who want to reduce overall-cost (logistics, manufacturing, warehousing and distribution) as well as to market /distribute their products effectively in the desired markets across Greater China and SE Asia. In other words, again, IDS make use its network and SCM capability in Asia to ADD-VALUE for clients.

If LF Trading helps Westren retailers to reduce overall product cost via "Outsourcing"; IDS somewhat like to do the "Reverse", and help the products to be manufactured, transported and marketed in Asia.

Wortwhile to note, other sister-company CRA Retail (8052) and Toy-RUs are also operated by the Group; another source of Synergy between Trading, IDS & Retailing!!

This's the reason why I say the 2 businesses are "APPLE" & "ORANGE" relationship.

(Con't)

阿爾伯特 說...

Final part could be the valuation & growth prospects.

The growth drivers of LF Trading lies on:
1) Trading Activities (6% to 7% YOY ahead)
2) Mega Out-sourcing Trend
3) Increasing Market Share in the Fragmented Market

On the Contrary, the growth drivers of IDS lie on:
1) Internal consumption in Asia, particularly Greater China
2) Outsourcing of Logistics, Manufacturing & Distribution Activities
3) Again, increasing market share in the fragmented markets

In theory, the growth prospects of IDS should be higher than that for LF Trading; however, the stability could be somewhat lower, particularly in the SE Asia. Nevertheless, increasing China revenue could be positive. Yes, you may regard IDS as a QUALITY BENEFICARIES of Rising PRC Internal Consumption!!

Valuation, I may not comment on the valuations of LF Trading (494) & IDS (2387). I may say LF Trading
's valuation could be less demanding after considering the KQIS and 2 design-house M&As.

阿爾伯特 說...

To Wing:

Western gigantic retailers which have sourcing business could become prospective clients as well; provided that they can't do the job (Easy to be described, but very very tough to be implemented well) as efficient as LF Trading. Under keen competitions, what retailers do is to outsource the "Sourcing Activities", so as to reduce overall cost and focuses on marketing campaigns.

KQIS deal is a solid example; with a quick glance, the net margin of existing KQIS business is merely 1%, or far lower than the existing level of LF Trading (3%).

I have had a look on Wal-Mart's outsourcing model, whose activities are mostly done in China. As a comparision, the sourcing network of LF Trading spreads across Asia and Eastern Europe. If you understand the "Power of Globalization", potential benefit will be maximized by sourcing the stuff from a network of countries, instead of a Single Country. Worthwhile to note, it is VERY DIFFICULT to set up a efficient sourcing network in just a short-time!!


As what being said, the potential growth of Wal-Mart Sourcing Business is very-limited, cos no competitors (Sears, Targets, K-Mart, Marks & Spencers) are willing to use Wal-Mart services.

If you think the situation in the handset industry, it could be very obvious. Nokia, Motorola and other mobile-phone giants have been outsourcing the mechanical design, procurement, assembly and after-sales services to EMS giants like Flextronics & Hon Hai (Foxconn).

Cory 說...

Albert, can I save your reply for my own reference? It is very useful.

阿爾伯特 說...

To Cory:

Yes, you're Welcome!

Actually you could understand more abt the Li & Fung Group by reading the book "百年利豐", or a more technical one, "供應鏈管理: 利豐集團的實踐經驗". I can guarantee you can know more than many analysts.

Nevertheless, current valuation of LF Trading and IDS is ANOTHER CONCERN. Probably one have to work out the valuation tasks.

Cory 說...

I read both books before, they are very impressive. I will re-study again. Really thanks.