I have a friend that had worked in SCMP. I suggest you better not touch this kind of co.
The high price variance between paper advert and online advert, new HKEX annoucements requirements, and mgt philosophy towards media goals instead of financial ones drive me away.
For retail stocks, I will only notice those which are growing in China only, I am only interested in growing cyclics! Giordano 's PRC performance is shit.
The first two are easy to understand. The 3rd: if you noticed the annual report, u see a 300m new printer, that one is just for better printing quality, for keeping the brand and improve quality, but these unfortunately are not related to advert sales or printing costs.
I like cyclic stocks, but only growing cyclic stocks, that will grow from peak to peak, not declining cyclic stocks like this.
Thanks for your ideas; as many people in the market, I have been considering such factors!
I have to emphaize that these counters are Second-Class in my eye, unlike the excelelnt ones like HSBC, Manulife or Li & Fung!
PRC growth for Giordano (709) may not be appealing, but what I am concerned should its earnings stability, financial status, and more importantly, the valuation.
From the industry perspective, strong economy can boost sales in HK and other Asia countries. The fairly-Good retailers (No Bossini, Veeko and other weak players) are likely to benefit. Warm weather may be potential risk; thanks for the cool weather after Dec-15......
The M&A speculation by Japanese Apparel Chain during 1H06 may imply its fair value, which could be $5.0 to $5.3 per share.
Solid financials imply rich dividends, the track record of earnings and dividend is satisfactory.
SCMP(583) enjoys quasi-monopoly status for English Newspaper market, which is immue from the "throat-Cutting" competition for Chinese newspaper market (Apple, Oriental, Ming Pao, Sing Tao, HKET, HKEJ & 3 Free Dailies) #18 was struggling for its "Sun", while #282 can't escape from keen competitions. SCMP is far more happier than them.
HKEx Notice rule a risk, but SCMP bears relatively low risk, associated revenue merely accounts for 5% of advertising revenue during 2005. Never assume total disapperance of biz notice after the cancellation of the rule, many "Uncles" & "Aunties" don't use Internet; besides, it's reasonble for the Blue chips & other Large Caps to continue posting notices on newspaper. you'd better show worry on HKET(423) without such disclosure.
Regarding the style, SCMP is still the quality one, and it still report in a relatively fair way, compared with the Chinese Newspapers. I still like the comics, news articles & Comments from SCMP.
Investment properites value, altogether are worth around $0.46 per share. If you exclude the rental income from the P/L Statement, you could guess the fair value of Publishing Biz value, which could be $2.9 to $3.2 per share.
Sum-of-the-parts valuation, $3.36 to $3.66 per share. Risks are there, and major risk should be "Newsprint Cost" and "Opportunity Cost".
Anyway, still an OK investment choice after considering the Return/risk profile; don't forget its strong balance sheet with solid dividend track-record (Est. dividend yield of 5% to 6%)
You may say, you don't like the boss of Kerry Group....well, I can say even many worse guys in the market, unless you want to select the Next Pope!!
The emergence of Online Ad is not news; you are reasonably to tell others if it's 1996 (but not 2006).
I am not sure of your definition of "Media" / "Financial" Goal. If SCMP is making loss, I may draw such enquiry.
I may say, before you wanna make $$, you have to think some non$$$ issues at the same time. People read a newspaper not only for the selling price, advertisement, but the Value-Added Content......I still rely on SCMP news everyday..hehe
According to my friend, that had worked inside, its main income is recruitment ad, which newsprint ad price is some 7-10 times of online ad, and more than 10 times of those in jobdb and other job sites.
newsprint costs are rising, but I dono how to quantify.
financial annoucement ad - 5%, only for bad times, the cyclic driver - some 15-30 pages of IPO ads not counted.
Buying this kind of co, u must buy in bad times, one thing for sure is that, readers slowly decline, please see my HKABC website on my blog right hand side.
But jobseekers are quickly accepting online sites, it is better to send a letter when the ad is first posted, instead of waiting a Sat SCMP. I am sure the acceptance for online jobsites would be even greater in the next cycle peak. So it is a declining cyclic.
The printer, I agree ur point, it is a must although no financial rewards, so I say it is unfortunate.
Probably you have to visit the official website of SCMP and have a read on the "Presentation Slides" for the recent results, and you could know more about its business.
You can know more about the cost structure, operating statistics and the advertising business from there.
I can say the subscription number of SCMP is pretty steady, even there may be slight decline (but I am sure it was increasing in 2005 and 1H06). As what I have been emphaizing, the English-newspaper market is less competitive compared with the Chinese Newspaper market. If you must invest in a newspaper stock, SCMP should be the top-pick. Of course, one should have many other sectors for investment (i.e. Banks, Properties, Ports, TMT, Trading.......etc)
As what I have been saying, SCMP is merely a SECOND-to-THIRD TIER counter, that I have around 60% confidence!! For this counter, I may regard it as a feasible play once I am sure of steady Cash Earnings with Alright valuation. Simple to understand?
The major revenue should lie on Advertising income, but not the retail price of newspapers. From this perspective, the recurring Cash Earnings of SCMP has been increasing since 2004 (particuarly under good economy & less-fierce competition), you may be worthwhile to have a check.
Give you an analogy, even though every people is critizing China Telecom (728) and China Netcom (906) of their slow-growth (losing IDD revenue offset by PHS & Broadband businesses), the market finally re-adjusts their valuataion upward from 10x to 12x to 15x to 17x recently(Ex-Upfront connection fee basis).
Even the market has been worrying on the SOC for CLP (2), nothing could stop the share to reach its historic HEIGHT!!
Once you know a business with Steady Free-Cash Flow, a feasible bargain is here if you pay a relatively low valuation.
22 則留言:
其實Michael Porter 本competitive advantage 真係要讀, 幫助好大!
之前有睇過一本關於花旗係中國發蹟既書, 都好有趣.
其實AIG 都係係上海發跡, 但我相信任何一個朝代, 王國都逃不過dynastic cycle.
我覺得management 既功力可與同行相比的ROE/ profit margin 見到多少, good mgt 的profit margin (net of one-off item) 通常都會比同行高
Gross Margin、ROE、Free Cash Flow、Dividend及增長之可持續性，尤其重要。
與Account Boy一樣，小弟同樣鐘情優秀Mgmt.....
看公司，小弟首先Evaluate其"級數"及生意的穩定性，然後再看其他; 因市場通常對不同級數的企業給予不同的估值範圍。
我都喜歡一些有優秀管理層, 具級數, 但比市場相對評價較低既公司
To Cory:
現時有無心水公司??
其實都係平安, 所以我都係指出相對便宜. (relative to 2628) ^_^
另外銀行股中, 我對大新金融一向情有獨鍾.
大家都會知國內會將兩稅合併, 但係我自己覺得金融股既得益唔會太大...... 唔知你地點睇, 稅項呢樣東東.
其實應唔應搵d 管理好差, 但黎緊會被(或已進行中)收購或管理層會大執位的公司呢?
呢個方法我知未必好...
但好股我估大家已經有係手, 依家應該掘d 有價值的出黎增加回報。
我都想發掘多D張化橋, 武捷思呢D 奇人.
深控, 合生既故仔太吸引了.
深控母公司深業仲有鹽田港及平保大約6% 的權益, 未來都有機會被注入深控。
仲有中糧(506)的寧高寧!
蔡東豪隻精電點睇? 瑞信見完管理層後立即調升評級及目標價喎!
"蔡東豪隻精電點睇? 瑞信見完管理層後立即調升評級及目標價喎"
I-banker搞生意，小心D......我都係相信實業的"工業家"多D。
精電(710)決定放棄TFT-LCD投資，只做Low Value-Added Assembly工序，長遠競爭力很大機會大大下降。我寧投資對手Truly(732)，人地低調實際得多。
需知Electronic/IC行業，不放CapEx或R&D在恰當技術，等同自我放棄未來Profit。
如看Sim Tech(2000)的IPO Prospectus，有暗示Truly為其中主要Competitor......精電都未夠級數。
To Wing:
"其實應唔應搵d 管理好差, 但黎緊會被(或已進行中)收購或管理層會大執位的公司呢?"
如果Potential Upside夠大，唔係話唔得; 不過市場最終未必肯反映晒個Fair Value(可能只肯給予70%至80%)，另外時間亦是一大問題。再講，避開太多業務的三四線Conglomerate，市場不易反映其Fair Value。
我寧回到HK找一些Simple Business但steady Earnings及Dividend之公司，如:
Trade-link (536)
Automated Systems (771)
SCMP (583) (要計埋Investment Properties價值，Total可值$3.3至$3.7)
Giordano (709)
ASM Pacific (522)
TVB (511)
它們都是Boring、Low Profile但Solid Earnings的公司。在個別Industry，享有一定龍頭地位。
To Cory:
中短線而言，平保(2318)可能有Relative Discount。但平保不是純人壽公司，估值會稍低(Casualty的Claim不太穩定); 正面來看，可能HSBC的Participation應可改善 Management Quality及Risk Management。
保險股於06年被A-Share Abnormally High Return所Distort，其實Underwriting Loss(Combined Ratio)在變弱(尤其是#2628)。現估值小心為妙。難怪China Life的"A-share IPO Pricing"定於每股RMB 18。
Of Course，Potential Growth應不俗，毫無疑問。
以林森池之"3 Times Embedded Value"，如China Life跌回$12至$15左右(視乎他老人家是指05年或06年之EV)，先好開始分段買入; UBS之Target Price亦是$17; 小弟算到06年的Appraisal Value為$13至$16，07年的Appraisal Value可能是$15.5至$20左右 ----- "投資的我"回答您。
"投機的我"會說，China Life抄到$30、$40、$50，邊個會話唔得?? Musical Chair Go! Go! Go!
To albert
恕我直言, 人們誇大了匯豐對平安既作用, 事實上, 平安一路以來, 不斷自我完善, 就算無匯豐參股, 管理層質素一樣咁強. 當然貢獻係有, 唔係想像中咁多.
Cory,
又恕我直言, 平保係好, 但還未有好的例子說明平保的管理質素, 我反而覺得2628 做得好D, 入股國家電網令我令眼相看。
Albert,
精電我都認為兢爭力唔得...
你提的股無錯係好股, 但實在太悶啦...haha
同樣不是我杯茶。
本公子亦不喜歡到"Sugar"/"Hei Hei"搞一夜情......haha
亦不是我杯茶!
雖然話悶，好公司的爆炸力亦不能忽視，以上高息的中型好股尤如"Convertible Bonds"，如生意穩定及買入估值偏低......進可攻，退可守。
適合"穩守突擊"的我。
to wing, 那麼你要將平安既發蹟史, 從頭看一次, 你就會明白我所講. 一間保險公司, 可以係那麼惡劣既環境下成長, 管理層質素之高, 可見一班. 中國保險業既黃埔軍校, 非浪得虛名.
中國人壽入股Southern Grid 都係因為入股廣發行, 因利乘便, 係政策既優惠並非管理層質素.
平安管理層質素之高, 只需小眾明白就可以, 大眾繼續選擇佢地心目中既龍頭吧! ^_^
I have a friend that had worked in SCMP. I suggest you better not touch this kind of co.
The high price variance between paper advert and online advert, new HKEX annoucements requirements, and mgt philosophy towards media goals instead of financial ones drive me away.
For retail stocks, I will only notice those which are growing in China only, I am only interested in growing cyclics! Giordano 's PRC performance is shit.
The first two are easy to understand. The 3rd: if you noticed the annual report, u see a 300m new printer, that one is just for better printing quality, for keeping the brand and improve quality, but these unfortunately are not related to advert sales or printing costs.
I like cyclic stocks, but only growing cyclic stocks, that will grow from peak to peak, not declining cyclic stocks like this.
To Account Boy:
Thanks for your ideas; as many people in the market, I have been considering such factors!
I have to emphaize that these counters are Second-Class in my eye, unlike the excelelnt ones like HSBC, Manulife or Li & Fung!
PRC growth for Giordano (709) may not be appealing, but what I am concerned should its earnings stability, financial status, and more importantly, the valuation.
From the industry perspective, strong economy can boost sales in HK and other Asia countries. The fairly-Good retailers (No Bossini, Veeko and other weak players) are likely to benefit. Warm weather may be potential risk; thanks for the cool weather after Dec-15......
The M&A speculation by Japanese Apparel Chain during 1H06 may imply its fair value, which could be $5.0 to $5.3 per share.
Solid financials imply rich dividends, the track record of earnings and dividend is satisfactory.
SCMP(583) enjoys quasi-monopoly status for English Newspaper market, which is immue from the "throat-Cutting" competition for Chinese newspaper market (Apple, Oriental, Ming Pao, Sing Tao, HKET, HKEJ & 3 Free Dailies) #18 was struggling for its "Sun", while #282 can't escape from keen competitions. SCMP is far more happier than them.
HKEx Notice rule a risk, but SCMP bears relatively low risk, associated revenue merely accounts for 5% of advertising revenue during 2005. Never assume total disapperance of biz notice after the cancellation of the rule, many "Uncles" & "Aunties" don't use Internet; besides, it's reasonble for the Blue chips & other Large Caps to continue posting notices on newspaper. you'd better show worry on HKET(423) without such disclosure.
Regarding the style, SCMP is still the quality one, and it still report in a relatively fair way, compared with the Chinese Newspapers. I still like the comics, news articles & Comments from SCMP.
Investment properites value, altogether are worth around $0.46 per share. If you exclude the rental income from the P/L Statement, you could guess the fair value of Publishing Biz value, which could be $2.9 to $3.2 per share.
Sum-of-the-parts valuation, $3.36 to $3.66 per share. Risks are there, and major risk should be "Newsprint Cost" and "Opportunity Cost".
Anyway, still an OK investment choice after considering the Return/risk profile; don't forget its strong balance sheet with solid dividend track-record (Est. dividend yield of 5% to 6%)
You may say, you don't like the boss of Kerry Group....well, I can say even many worse guys in the market, unless you want to select the Next Pope!!
The emergence of Online Ad is not news; you are reasonably to tell others if it's 1996 (but not 2006).
I am not sure of your definition of "Media" / "Financial" Goal. If SCMP is making loss, I may draw such enquiry.
I may say, before you wanna make $$, you have to think some non$$$ issues at the same time. People read a newspaper not only for the selling price, advertisement, but the Value-Added Content......I still rely on SCMP news everyday..hehe
According to my friend, that had worked inside, its main income is recruitment ad, which newsprint ad price is some 7-10 times of online ad, and more than 10 times of those in jobdb and other job sites.
newsprint costs are rising, but I dono how to quantify.
financial annoucement ad - 5%, only for bad times, the cyclic driver - some 15-30 pages of IPO ads not counted.
Buying this kind of co, u must buy in bad times, one thing for sure is that, readers slowly decline, please see my HKABC website on my blog right hand side.
But jobseekers are quickly accepting online sites, it is better to send a letter when the ad is first posted, instead of waiting a Sat SCMP. I am sure the acceptance for online jobsites would be even greater in the next cycle peak. So it is a declining cyclic.
The printer, I agree ur point, it is a must although no financial rewards, so I say it is unfortunate.
Hi Account boy:
Probably you have to visit the official website of SCMP and have a read on the "Presentation Slides" for the recent results, and you could know more about its business.
You can know more about the cost structure, operating statistics and the advertising business from there.
I can say the subscription number of SCMP is pretty steady, even there may be slight decline (but I am sure it was increasing in 2005 and 1H06). As what I have been emphaizing, the English-newspaper market is less competitive compared with the Chinese Newspaper market. If you must invest in a newspaper stock, SCMP should be the top-pick. Of course, one should have many other sectors for investment (i.e. Banks, Properties, Ports, TMT, Trading.......etc)
As what I have been saying, SCMP is merely a SECOND-to-THIRD TIER counter, that I have around 60% confidence!! For this counter, I may regard it as a feasible play once I am sure of steady Cash Earnings with Alright valuation. Simple to understand?
The major revenue should lie on Advertising income, but not the retail price of newspapers. From this perspective, the recurring Cash Earnings of SCMP has been increasing since 2004 (particuarly under good economy & less-fierce competition), you may be worthwhile to have a check.
Give you an analogy, even though every people is critizing China Telecom (728) and China Netcom (906) of their slow-growth (losing IDD revenue offset by PHS & Broadband businesses), the market finally re-adjusts their valuataion upward from 10x to 12x to 15x to 17x recently(Ex-Upfront connection fee basis).
Even the market has been worrying on the SOC for CLP (2), nothing could stop the share to reach its historic HEIGHT!!
Once you know a business with Steady Free-Cash Flow, a feasible bargain is here if you pay a relatively low valuation.
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