10月28日後的V型反彈，筆者有以下觀察:
1) 大市值股反彈較強，但二三線股乏力，細市值股唔關事
2) 美股強勁反彈，而美元仍然處於兩年高位，但TED降至2.76%(一年高位: 4.68%)，這暗示資金由Money Market流入美股
3) 中資股以電訊(中移動+聯通+中電訊)、保險和Consumer Staples(華創)等行業的分彈較具持續性，這亦暗示資金以安穩為上
4) 出口為主的優質股升勢(反彈力度)較強，例子如利豐(494)、招商局(144)等等。相反，二三線工業(出口)股則無明顯反彈
5) 傳統英資藍籌股票較為強勢，例如匯控(5)、太古A(19)、國泰(293)
6) 內銀股以工行(1398)和建行(939)的反彈較強勁，似乎機構投資者對南部的銀行較為審慎
7) 內房股不升反跌，似乎樓市寒冬未完，這亦部份解釋(4)
8) 國內機械、零售、電力設備股份偏向弱勢，可能反映中國經濟的風險
9) 本地藍籌地產發展商似乎有Bargain Hunt(但不表示樓市基本面轉好)，但二三線地產股則乏力
10) 本地二三線銀行股仍然偏向弱勢，可能反映香港經濟的風險
11) 商品股亦有Bargain Hunt式買盤。但若然商品價格繼續向下，前景亦不敢樂觀
18 則留言:
招商銀行(3968)剛公佈二○○八年第三季度報告, 08年首3季淨利潤較去年同期增長90.56%
本地銀行是否買入的時候呢 ?
馬沙兄:
CM Bank Net Profit:
1H07: RMB 6,120M
3Q07: RMB 3,850M
1H08: RMB 13,245M
3Q08: RMB 5,754M
4Q08、1Q09、2Q09會點??
1) NIM會跌
2) NPL會升
3) Fee & Trading Revenue會跌
4) Loan Growth放緩
Sep-09 NAV: HK$6.45
12個月內計，現價難說是很吸引，timing問題。
巴林:
HK Banks:
1) NPL會升
2) Fee & Trading Revenue會跌
3) Loan Growth放緩
又係Timing的議題，2009年中後可能會好一點
人行又減存貸利率0.27厘，睇黎佢免不了減息週期，咁樣係咪對內銀、保險--2628 越5成的債權型投資，來年既收入越來越不利?
>>5) 傳統英資藍籌股票較為強勢，例如匯控(5)、太古A(19)、國泰(293)
why la ,其實係咪你增持者...嘻....
ka lu:
可以保證，一定唔係我買起 :)
不過三者有一些共通點:
1) 管治質素高
2) 經歷多個Cycles，有Strong Track-Record
3) 財務穩健
4) 歷史估值低位(P/B)
5) Forward Yield不俗(國泰除外)
6) 不是熱門股，少散戶亂炒
阿爾伯特兄
太古持有大量本地物業，現價P/B是否已經反映未本地樓市跌幅呢? 如果未來本地樓價大跌，是否也可以把現在的低P/B看作value trap? Thanks!
ka lu
我以為，減息則債券價格升高，對保險業的債券資產應該有幫助，不知道有沒有想錯。請指教！
water:
發展商2009年賣少好多樓，Cash Flow有機會大挫
優質收租股租金頂多跌20%至30%，仲未計不少Contract係綁死一兩年。反之，二三線Office/Retail的租戶可能會Bankrupt。
還未同你計太古的Beverage、Airlines兩大業務會受惠商品大瀉。這亦暗示Dividend唔會大跌，Yield又高。
可想一想為何#1、#12、#16、#17、#83由52週高位跌六至八成，相反#14、#19、#101、#823僅跌一半左右。
近日反彈又以#19同#101兩隻龍頭收租股升幅較#14和#823為強。
市場不太笨的，起碼信優質收租股的Dividend唔會太差。
What is you call on oil in the next 5 years?
Do you think supply will be tighter now because investments in the oil sector stops because of the credit crunch?
What will happen to oil price when the global recession is over?
It seems we have stopped investing in new production because of the crunch but demand is not decreasing with the rapid development of China & India.
Albert:
Slowering demand, bubble burst and sentiment will imply a bearish outlook of oil price. Opec can do nothing, to be frank.
BDI, which plunged from 12,000 to 850 in next than 6 months, is telling us what're going to happen for all major commodities. As an observation, BDI is a leading indicator for commodity market and economy over the decades.
Another point to note, the cycles of crude oil and other commodities are quite long (5 to 20 years). Oil reached the bubble peak in 1980(around US$100/barrel adjusted for inflation, and US$40 in nominal price) and no major rebound until 1998. Similar trend holds for gold and silver.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm
The crowd tends to believe a view of commodity consolidation before the excessive liquidity will cause another inflation. However, this is not the case.
"物極必反" is my favorite quote :)
阿爾伯特兄
多謝你
閣下近期的blogs
帶我到達一個前所未有的高度(or角度?)
2009年的主題應是以防守為主
美國是世界經濟的母乳
對來年資產配置非常重要
fk_tim:
"帶我到達一個前所未有的高度" --> 愧不敢當 :)
強美元時代(弱亞洲經濟/匯率/出口/熱錢出走)是不利新興市場。傳統玩法(2005年之前的老手藍籌愛股)可能占優。股票不是只看Revenue增長，太多Factors要考慮，現時下列收息優質股票潛力可能不俗，風險亦不大:
HSBC (5)
Swire A (19)
CRE (291)
Vitasoy (345)
Li & Fung (494)
Manulife (945)
Hello Albert,
What is your call on REITs and Utilities next year?
0405 GZI REIT P/B 0.41
0823 LINK REIT P/B 0.93
0737 Hopewell Highway
1038 Cheung Kong Infrastructure
The dividends on the REITs are very attractive right now.
Are there any pressure on the rents of prime real estates in HK and China in the next 2 years?
Do you rather buy REITs or Utilities as a defensive holdings in your portfolio to go with HSBC and Swire Pacific?
Thanks
由於小弟倉細
實具有買維他奶的優勢(成交少)
現已持重倉(30%)
多謝
自從中信泰富事件後, 我對291這類中資企業實在存有戒心.
Albert:
GZI REIT (405) may still subject to weak Southern PRC economy, which may imply falling rentals and higher vacancies. Still, it should be far safer than the heavily geared developers names such as R&F (2777), Country Garden (2007) with huge development cost ahead.
Hopewell Highway (737) and CKI (1038) should be more defensive, but I may prefer stock plays that have more upside with similar dividend yield and strong business prospects. Some people show concern on the management capability of Hopewell.
Link REIT (823) should be a quality yield play, and further TED drop may push its share price up by another 10% to 15%. Nevertheless, I may show concern that some of its small tenants may go out of business (small-scaled 茶餐廳、零售舖), although big tenants like Mannings, 7-eleven, Cafe De Carol should be fine. In another words, potential drop in rentals and rise in vacancies, but not at a severe extent.
Cup Sir:
這是值得注意的潛在風險。但一股而言，華創系的管治是較為優質，各行業中做到中上質素(除了Semiconductor外):
CR Land (1109)
CR Power (836)
CRE (291)
三者08年跑贏(跌得少過)同行，市場並不是笨的 ^_~
阿爾伯特兄
想進一步請教，現時您預期強美元與弱亞洲經濟/匯率時代可能會持續多久？美元可能走強的幅度呢？
觀察過往每個大牛市，都有不同的主流/主題，經過這番折騰，新興市場與商品應該要休息一段時日...所以我非常認同您、下個多頭循環從美國開始的分析。至於由美國那個產業領軍？不知道您有何看法？在港股中可找到相關標的嗎？
當然若要穩守突襲，上面的收息優質股票的確是不錯的選擇！
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