自從Federal Reserve推出"Quantitiave Easing 2 (QE2)"後,全球股市升勢持續,而2010年9月亦是恆生指數和DJIA全年表現最好的一個月份.
筆者最常聽到對QE2的說法(基本上所謂的專家同師奶的說法分別不大)是:
- Federal Reserve推出QE等於印銀紙
- 因此美元會貶值
- 惡性通漲是難以避免
- 資產價格因此會大漲
- 惡性通漲和美元貶值亦會令美債的泡沫爆破
看似十分順理成章的推論其實有多有效?? 坦白說,實際上是漏洞百出,大家只要理解QE的定義便會一目了然.
看一看在Wikipedia對"QE"的定義,QE只是"Federal Reserve"的"Open Market Operation",Federal Reserve只需要在市場內向金融機構(主要為銀行)購買債券(主要為政府債券, Treasuries),其直接效果是銀行的儲備(Reserve).
Quantitative Easing (Source: Wikipedia)
The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a monetary policy used by central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system. This policy is usually invoked when the normal methods to control the money supply have failed, i.e the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero.
A central bank implements QE by first crediting its own account with money it has created ex nihilo ("out of nothing").[1] It then purchases financial assets, including government bonds, mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions in a process referred to as open market operations. The purchases, by way of account deposits, give banks the excess reserves required for them to create new money, and thus a hopeful stimulation of the economy, by the process of deposit multiplication from increased lending in the fractional reserve banking system.
理論上,銀行的儲備增加後,是有能力借出更多的錢.若果私人機購和私人個戶願意向銀行借入更多的錢去進行投資和消費,那麼便發生"Money Multiplier Effect",這仍是Federal Reserve十分樂意見到的事情.
但是這些"樂意見到的事情"是十分依賴"Private Sector"是否願意去借入更多的錢,否則只不過是令銀行的儲備增加而已(所謂的Liquidity Trap).
換個角度來看,這僅是"Demand/Supply"的問題,QE是為了增加銀行體系內的"貨幣供應(Monetary Supply)",但若果"Private Sector"不願意(或沒有需要)去借入更多的錢的話,"Monetary (Loan)Demand"仍即沒有變化,仍即所謂的"供應過剩(Over-Supply)".
事實上,自2009年初開始,歐美銀行的貸款(Loan Balance)並沒有增加(甚至下降),原因十分簡單 ---> De-leveraging Process
記性好的讀者可能仍記得在泡沫爆破後,日本於1990年至2003年所發生的事情,亦是"De-leveraging".
再回顧大多數人所謂對QE的觀念:
- Federal Reserve推出QE等於印銀紙 ---> Federal Reserve只是向銀行購買債券,亦即戶口轉移(Account Transfer)
- 因此美元會貶值 ---> 見上
- 惡性通漲是難以避免 ---> 若然"Private Sector"不願借入更多,經濟放緩的後果是通縮(Deflation)
- 資產價格因此會大漲 ---> 見上
- 惡性通漲和美元貶值亦會令美債的泡沫爆破 ---> Federal Reserve購買債券,可能令美債價格上升
以上的看法對於中期(未來6至12個月)的經濟和金融市場的走勢較為有效.
當然,短期股票市場走勢主要受到人群情緒(Psychology)以及"供求(Supply/Demand)"等因素左右,可以忽略所謂的基本因素.換句說話,中短期炒股的"Logic"未必與中期的基本因素有關......"As long as the stocks rally, who cares the reason(s) behind".
然而,若然以未來6至12個月(甚至更長)的時間為投資目標,那麼便需要具備更明智的"Insights",而非依靠人云亦云的看法!!
10 則留言:
十分認同！
多謝分享！
小弟見到金股債(商品too?無留意~)整整升感覺十分有趣。
當然它們背後的支持者各有其故事可以說說...
小弟暫時把部分資本放在一旁,Keep住找尋機會~努力做多d功課~
山竹牛肉:
Thanks! 可能文中思考仍有漏洞,不過仍盡量以多角度思考
Simon:
"當然它們背後的支持者各有其故事" --> 幾乎每一個bubble正在盛行之時,一定有一大堆所謂的支持理論.
其實在bubble中揾食本是沒有問題,聰明的人在bubble形成的初期已經下注(甚至Find the Next Bubble),而蠢的人則在人人都狂熱時幫人家散貨,甚至做埋啦啦隊!!
當報紙和週圍的人對一個投資主題堅信不移,而且升勢銳不可擋之際,可能表示爆破之時不遠矣
煙花的絢爛只是一瞬間，然後就散落 :)
Hi Albert,
Good article!!! QE似循環貸款多d喎~ MBS多多都買唔完!!
這個世界原來可以不斷印銀紙買番自己嘅債而沒有不良後果﹗
經濟學上不同學派或理論可以得出不同結論，但我相信常理，入不敷支唔會有好結果，出得嚟行，始終要還。
柴娃娃:
循環貸款都要付息,但QE是將銀行的Reserve增大,有點兒不同
閒人:
推行QE與印銀紙可能沒有直接關係,其目標是將貨幣供應流至銀行體系
出得嚟行，始終要還 --> 最大影響可能是全球經濟大放緩,主要原因是Private Sectors要減債. 至於去到Government Finance的層面,美國可能是少數可以"入不敷支"的國家
agree . . FED is also healing the banks thr tax money by paying interest to their excess reserves . . "You pay I buy"
Hi Kam,
Regarded as a Monetary policy QE involves nothing on the tax payer (i.e. fiscal policy).
Neertheless, there is no direct implication whether QE involves money printing or not, since QE appears to be an "Account Switching Game" (i.e. from FED to Banking system).
However, it is quite sure FED is trying to increase the excess reserve of the banks, so that they have bigger capacity to lend $$ to the private sectors.
Of course, the key issue is whether the private sectors are willing & have the need to borrow more money under a big trend of "de-leveraging"
Thanks for your message, anyway :)
FED 如何買入債券，一係印銀紙一係發債比非本土銀行買家，美國暫時可以"入不敷支"是還有人買他的債，所謂美國可能是少數可以"入不敷支"，是要全世界人為他們理單。
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