重申黑馬之選

黑馬的味道，看來越來越濃，其有效率而具彈性的貨幣以及財務政策或許開始見效，雖然一切仍是言之尚早。有一點值得留意，英鎊可能已經見底，弱英鎊正發揮其作用。

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Pound Climbs Against Euro After U.K. Manufacturing Index Rises
(Bloomberg; 1 Apr 09)

By Kim-Mai Cutler

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- The pound advanced to its strongest against the euro in two weeks after a U.K. manufacturing index climbed in March to the highest level in five months.

The British currency also rose for a second day versus the dollar as world leaders arrived today for the Group of 20 summit in London, where they aim to formulate plans to overcome the global recession. Gilts advanced after the U.K. sold all 3.5 billion pounds ($5 billion) of six-year notes at an auction and the Bank of England bought the same amount of securities as part of an asset-purchase program designed to lower borrowing costs.

“Euro-sterling in the mid-to-low 90s is very, very overvalued,” said Martin McMahon, a Zurich-based currency strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG. “This quarter is probably the final leg of sterling weakness.”

The British currency advanced to 91.74 pence per euro by 5:45 p.m. in London, from 92.56 pence yesterday, and traded at 91.55 pence earlier, its strongest level since March 16. The pound rose to $1.4412 from $1.4323.

An index based on a survey of factories climbed to 39.1, from 34.7 in February, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit Economics said today.

The pound has risen almost 1 percent against the dollar in the past month as policy makers announced the unprecedented step of printing money to buy government and corporate debt to lower borrowing costs as part of so-called quantitative easing.

Gilt Sale
“So far, sterling hasn’t suffered markedly from the commencement of quantitative easing operations and we see the pound making gains, especially against the euro, as the European Central Bank looks increasingly likely to implement its own brand of quantitative easing,” Gareth Berry, a strategist at UBS AG in London, wrote in a note to clients today.

The U.K. sold all the six-year gilts in its first offering of non-inflation linked bonds since failing to find enough buyers at an auction last week. The Debt Management Office, which oversees bond auctions on behalf of the Treasury, received 2.23 times as many bids as securities offered.

The notes are within the range of gilts the Bank of England is buying as part of its so-called quantitative easing program. The central bank pledged on March 5 to buy gilts due within five and 25 years after saying it would begin quantitative easing. It bought 3.5 billion pounds of gilts today, getting 4.4 billion pounds of offers to sell, it said in a statement.

Investor Appetite
“There is appetite for issues that fall within the Bank of England’s quantitative easing zone,” said Richard McGuire, a fixed-income strategist in London at Royal Bank of Canada. “This shows the Bank of England needs to be there to support sufficient investor appetite, given the poor supply picture.”

Gains in government bonds sent the yield on the two-year note four basis points lower to 1.14 percent. The 4.25 percent security due March 2011 climbed 0.08, or 80 pence per 1,000- pound face amount, to 105.93. The 10-year yield fell three basis points to 3.13 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

British government bonds lost 0.8 percent in the first quarter, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.K. Gilts Index. U.S. debt handed investors a loss of 1.4 percent, according to the firm’s U.S. Treasury Master Index.

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U.K. House Prices Unexpectedly Increased in March (Update1)
(Bloomberg; 2 Apr 09)

By Jennifer Ryan

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices unexpectedly rose for the first time since October 2007 after the Bank of England’s interest-rate cuts attracted buyers to the property market, Nationwide Building Society said.

The average cost of a home jumped 0.9 percent in March from the previous month to 150,946 pounds ($218,000), the mortgage lender said in a statement today. All 13 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted a decline.

Mortgage approvals rose to a nine-month high in February, evidence the slump in housing transactions may be starting to ease after a 15.7 percent drop in prices during the past year. The Bank of England reduced the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.5 percent last month and started buying assets with newly created money to fight Britain’s recession.

“It is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has been reached,” Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said in the statement. “The willingness of borrowers to return to the market is encouraging and likely to in part reflect the falling cost of borrowing.”

The pound climbed as much as 0.5 percent against the dollar after the release of the report. The currency traded at $1.4573 as of 8:12 a.m. in London. Economists predicted a 1.5 percent house-price drop on the month, according to the median survey estimate.

Buying Plans
U.K. homebuilder Bellway Plc plans to “step on the gas” in land purchases as house prices may not fall much further, Chief Executive Officer John Watson said March 31. “There may well be further falls, but it’s not going to be another 25 percent, so you’re getting nearer to a bottom,” he said.

Central bank policy maker Spencer Dale said last week that there are signs the U.K. housing market has stabilized, though it still looks in a “bad state.” Economists at UBS AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last month that there may be evidence of “green shoots” as mortgage approvals pick up.

Banks granted 38,000 home loans in February, up from a trough of just 27,000 in November, Bank of England data showed this week. Lenders have hoarded cash after racking up more than $1.2 trillion in losses worldwide.

The bank has started to buy 75 billion pounds of corporate and government bonds to stimulate spending and revive growth by lowering borrowing costs. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has also offered banks including Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc billions of pounds in credit guarantees.

The U.K. economy shrank 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the most since 1980, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts British gross domestic product will fall 3.7 percent this year.

A separate report showed labor unions clinched annual pay raises at a median 3.4 percent in the three months through February, down from 3.5 percent in the same period a year earlier, researcher Incomes Data Services said.