近日Blog友「林奇」和「維斯」等談及日本11.7兆日圓救經濟的方案。論其潛在功效之前，不妨了解一下導致日本經濟多年疲弱的其中一個主因 --- 20世紀80年代的經濟大泡沫爆破:
隨著汽車、科技、機械等工業的成功發展，1970至1980代其間日本的增長(由出口帶動)快速，亦令外匯儲備和國民財富亦達至一個很高的水平。
在豐裕的流動資金和儲蓄的帶動下，再加上經濟景氣下，日本的股樓兩市於1980年代一直向上走。開頭資產價格升幅仍乎合經濟現實，並沒有甚麼大問題。但在持續的低利率環境下(至少對於大企業來說是沒錯的)，而外資資金不斷流入，再加上強日圓下，股樓兩主要資產價格開始過熱。1980年代中葉的日本財金官員不但沒有提高利率或收緊貨幣供應以便控制過熱的資產市場，相反他們以高日本資產價格為傲。
而資產泡沫在低利率、高樓價、上揚的股票價格，再加一點兒大和民族自我膨漲心態下，泡沫很快便形成:
1) 低利率下，人們拿著不動產去低押貸款，將借來的錢投入股市
2) 後來股價上升，人們又拿將股票去借款，再買進不動產
3) 上述資產價格上漲週期一直延續下去，直至......
於1989年，日經平均指數高達40,000點左右，市盈率亦高至80倍，相對而言當時歐美的市盈率大約為10至20倍中間。當然有人當時會質疑日本資產是否太貴，但自大的日本人則認為持續多年的經濟大景氣、日本將取代美國成為全球經濟霸主，以及大和民族的優越性，是導致日本股票高市盈率的原因。
然而，上帝總是喜歡與自大狂妄的人開玩笑。
1989年底，新上任的日本銀行總裁三重野康下令調高利率，資產泡沫爆破只不過是時間的問題。像美國1929年和1987年的股災並沒有發生，相反，日本的股市像患了絕症的病人般慢慢倒下來。由1989年的40,000點高位計，1990年日經平均指數已下跌一半至20,000點，1992年再低見14,000點。日本股市的大熊市直至2003年才結束。
自1990年初的股市下滑始，不動產價格亦見向下走，之前舉債投資股票及房地產的投機人亦沽售手頭上的資產，而「負面的財富收縮效應(Negative Wealth Effect)」亦造成經濟倒退，而銀行壞帳金額亦大幅上升。日本亦有一大群背著重債務的樓房業主，這亦進一步削弱本來已經不振的經濟。縱使自1990年代中葉起，日本政府一直以減息和投資以望刺激經濟，但這仍無法對症下藥解決銀行體系內的龐大壞帳問題。
除了負資產問題(泡沫爆破後的結果)外，日本的不恰當放貸(非考慮借貸者之市場和風險，而是按借貸者與銀行的關係為利息高低的準則)方法亦是導致日本銀行體系內的壞帳問題。更壞的是，日本政府非但沒有接管壞帳累累的銀行，反而不斷向經營不善的銀行注入資金(但並無改革或改善固中的問題)。因此，這類喪屍式(Zombie-Type)銀行多年來不斷蠶食日本的經濟.......
「治標不治本」的經濟方案，應該難以為日本帶來活力。或者，以下幾句能夠形容日本經濟的展望:
「貿易保護主義、排外民族性(自大)、腐敗的銀行體系、黑金政治，以及官僚等問題，多年來仍無改善的跡象。即使汽車和科技等工業多年來發展不俗，仍無法扭轉敗局。」
星期日, 8月 31, 2008
星期五, 8月 29, 2008
星期四, 8月 28, 2008
星期六, 8月 23, 2008
解碼
聽其言，觀其行，是參巧大師們意見的必定動作。大家不妨留意他們近日的行動:
畢菲特(Warren Buffett):
雖然一直看淡美國經濟，畢菲特近月來做了以下動作:
1) 平倉「沽空美元」的部位
2) 增持優質美國金融股，例如「American Express (AXP)」及「Wells Fargo (WFC)」
3) 沽出石油股票「Conoco Phillips (COP)」
麥嘉華(Marc Faber):
1) 持有美元短債
2) 即使長期看好商品價格，但於2008年下半年看淡價格，亦不排除商品價格可以由高位下跌50%
3) 看好航空股
羅傑斯(Jim Rogers):
1) 於2008年1月至6月份大力向大眾沽售商品基金
2) 看好航空股
3) 即使周不時前言不對後語，亦長期看好商品價格，但近日來羅傑斯不反對商品價格有回檔(Correction)的可能性
對筆者而言，大局已經十分明顯，尤其是連美元大淡友亦要改變看法........
畢菲特(Warren Buffett):
雖然一直看淡美國經濟，畢菲特近月來做了以下動作:
1) 平倉「沽空美元」的部位
2) 增持優質美國金融股，例如「American Express (AXP)」及「Wells Fargo (WFC)」
3) 沽出石油股票「Conoco Phillips (COP)」
麥嘉華(Marc Faber):
1) 持有美元短債
2) 即使長期看好商品價格，但於2008年下半年看淡價格，亦不排除商品價格可以由高位下跌50%
3) 看好航空股
羅傑斯(Jim Rogers):
1) 於2008年1月至6月份大力向大眾沽售商品基金
2) 看好航空股
3) 即使周不時前言不對後語，亦長期看好商品價格，但近日來羅傑斯不反對商品價格有回檔(Correction)的可能性
對筆者而言，大局已經十分明顯，尤其是連美元大淡友亦要改變看法........
星期四, 8月 21, 2008
英國人垂青美國資產
強美元並非講下那麼簡單，資金正從世界各地流進美國，尤其是不少非金融類美資大型企業現時享有強勁的財務狀況以及分散於全球的業務。
「Despite huge write-downs in the financial sector, many American companies have strong balance sheets, and Steel believes the US economy is hugely underrated. "If you're in a storm the safest place to be is in the deep sea, not the shallows, and the economy in the world that represents the deep sea is the US," he said. 」
------------------------------------
Is it Time to Back America Again?
Investors are Looking for Bargains in the US Property and Stock Markets
(The Sunday Times --- August 17, 2008)
Jennifer Hill and Kathryn Cooper
Brave investors are starting to back America, the home of the credit crunch, as evidence grows that it could be the first to pull itself out of the global downturn.
The dollar has hit a near two-year high against the pound and a six-month peak against the euro. It has rallied 7% against sterling in the past month - from US$2 to US$1.86 - gaining 3% in the past week alone.
Traders are betting that central banks will have to cut rates in Britain and the eurozone to avert a recession, whereas in America the next move in rates is likely to be up. Higher interest rates are generally good news for a country's currency.
"This is the start of a major move: the dollar will get even stronger," said Alan Steel at Alan Steel Asset Management. "Anyone sitting in a US fund in the last three or four weeks will have seen a nice bounce - anything up to 12%."
Professionals are more positive about America than they have been for six years, the latest Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers shows. A record net 58% of managers believe the dollar is undervalued, some 38% are most likely to be overweight in the US over the next year, and 12% of asset allocators are currently overweight - meaning they have more than their global benchmark in the country.
The US stock market has fallen since the crisis in sub-prime mortgages sparked the credit crunch a year ago, although not as much as other global markets - and the decline has been diluted by the dollar's rise.
The S&P 500 is down 9.3% on the year, but dollar-adjusted the fall is only 2.8%. The tech-based Nasdaq is up 4.7% for sterling investors.
The FTSE All-Share is down 12% and the FTSE Eurotop 100 has lost 19.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng has dived 10.9% in the past six months.
Nevertheless, investors have shied away from US equities amid fears the world's biggest economy faces a period of stagflation.
Those grew last week on news that foreclosures in the crisis-hit housing market were rising at an annual rate of 55%, as the cost of living rose to a 17-year high of 5.6%.
However, analysts said that cheaper commodities, particularly waning oil prices, meant inflation might have peaked.
Despite huge write-downs in the financial sector, many American companies have strong balance sheets, and Steel believes the US economy is hugely underrated. "If you're in a storm the safest place to be is in the deep sea, not the shallows, and the economy in the world that represents the deep sea is the US," he said.
"It has shown remarkable resilience. It went into the credit crunch first and it'll be the first to come out."
Others, though, say there is some way to go. Global write-downs total about US$450 billion - little over half the US$945 billion the IMF expects.
Kully Samra at broker-dealer Charles Schwab predicts the final figure will top US$1 trillion, and said the US was on the second downward stroke of a W-shaped recession.
"If you're going to wait for the US economy to recover then it's probably not quite the time to invest, but if you're looking for somewhere relatively stable with better potential for recovery than other parts [of the world] look at the US: it's not going to lose 50% overnight like China," he said.
Samra likes the healthcare sector for its defensive properties - companies like orthopaedic specialist Zimmer Holdings and Medtronic, the medical technology company.
Among American funds, Steel recommends Martin Currie North America, a GBP393m fund geared to US exporters and information technology; Neptune US Opportunities, a GBP53m fund with 12.6% of its assets in the "undervalued" biotech sector; and the GBP239m Gartmore US Opportunities, a contrarian play with a 28.5% weighting in the battered financials sector.
Global funds with high exposure to the US are also worth a look: CF Richmond Core, an GBP11.6m fund, and the GBP3.7 billion M&G Global Basics have 66.6% and 30.8% respectively in America.
Another way of gaining exposure is through European companies with the highest sales exposure to the Americas. Excluding financials, these include Lon-don-listed Hochschild Mining (100%); pipe-line products firm Wellstream Holdings (90.5%); BBA Aviation (77%); retail jeweller Signet (73.8%); and biopharmaceutical company Shire (73.8%), HSBC said.
Others, though, are bearish. Mark Dampier at adviser Hargreaves Lansdown points to AA-rated manager Philip Gibbs, who has almost 60% of his Jupiter Financial Opportunities in cash and fixed-interest instruments. "He has a great track record so I'd leave it to someone like him and not try to time the market," said Dampier.
American property might remain in the doldrums, but a growing number of British buyers are seeing opportunities to buy in on the cheap. Foreign-exchange firm World First has seen a 38% year-on-year jump in inquiries from Britons looking to buy in the four months to the end of July.
Around 45% of business at Top Producers Realty, a property broker based in Naples, Florida, has come from Britons so far this year, compared with 28% in 2007.
Craig Peevor, 37, from West Bromwich, works for a property company in Britain and recently bought two bungalows in Buffalo, New York State, for a total of GBP14,000 and is letting them to American families.
He said: "With the state of the US property market at the moment, I effectively got the bungalow half-price. I am planning to buy one or two properties a year to give me an additional income."
Those thinking of following in his footsteps should think ahead. "If you're looking at that US dream home, buying dollars and keeping them in your back pocket may be a very sensible play," said Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First.
「Despite huge write-downs in the financial sector, many American companies have strong balance sheets, and Steel believes the US economy is hugely underrated. "If you're in a storm the safest place to be is in the deep sea, not the shallows, and the economy in the world that represents the deep sea is the US," he said. 」
------------------------------------
Is it Time to Back America Again?
Investors are Looking for Bargains in the US Property and Stock Markets
(The Sunday Times --- August 17, 2008)
Jennifer Hill and Kathryn Cooper
Brave investors are starting to back America, the home of the credit crunch, as evidence grows that it could be the first to pull itself out of the global downturn.
The dollar has hit a near two-year high against the pound and a six-month peak against the euro. It has rallied 7% against sterling in the past month - from US$2 to US$1.86 - gaining 3% in the past week alone.
Traders are betting that central banks will have to cut rates in Britain and the eurozone to avert a recession, whereas in America the next move in rates is likely to be up. Higher interest rates are generally good news for a country's currency.
"This is the start of a major move: the dollar will get even stronger," said Alan Steel at Alan Steel Asset Management. "Anyone sitting in a US fund in the last three or four weeks will have seen a nice bounce - anything up to 12%."
Professionals are more positive about America than they have been for six years, the latest Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers shows. A record net 58% of managers believe the dollar is undervalued, some 38% are most likely to be overweight in the US over the next year, and 12% of asset allocators are currently overweight - meaning they have more than their global benchmark in the country.
The US stock market has fallen since the crisis in sub-prime mortgages sparked the credit crunch a year ago, although not as much as other global markets - and the decline has been diluted by the dollar's rise.
The S&P 500 is down 9.3% on the year, but dollar-adjusted the fall is only 2.8%. The tech-based Nasdaq is up 4.7% for sterling investors.
The FTSE All-Share is down 12% and the FTSE Eurotop 100 has lost 19.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng has dived 10.9% in the past six months.
Nevertheless, investors have shied away from US equities amid fears the world's biggest economy faces a period of stagflation.
Those grew last week on news that foreclosures in the crisis-hit housing market were rising at an annual rate of 55%, as the cost of living rose to a 17-year high of 5.6%.
However, analysts said that cheaper commodities, particularly waning oil prices, meant inflation might have peaked.
Despite huge write-downs in the financial sector, many American companies have strong balance sheets, and Steel believes the US economy is hugely underrated. "If you're in a storm the safest place to be is in the deep sea, not the shallows, and the economy in the world that represents the deep sea is the US," he said.
"It has shown remarkable resilience. It went into the credit crunch first and it'll be the first to come out."
Others, though, say there is some way to go. Global write-downs total about US$450 billion - little over half the US$945 billion the IMF expects.
Kully Samra at broker-dealer Charles Schwab predicts the final figure will top US$1 trillion, and said the US was on the second downward stroke of a W-shaped recession.
"If you're going to wait for the US economy to recover then it's probably not quite the time to invest, but if you're looking for somewhere relatively stable with better potential for recovery than other parts [of the world] look at the US: it's not going to lose 50% overnight like China," he said.
Samra likes the healthcare sector for its defensive properties - companies like orthopaedic specialist Zimmer Holdings and Medtronic, the medical technology company.
Among American funds, Steel recommends Martin Currie North America, a GBP393m fund geared to US exporters and information technology; Neptune US Opportunities, a GBP53m fund with 12.6% of its assets in the "undervalued" biotech sector; and the GBP239m Gartmore US Opportunities, a contrarian play with a 28.5% weighting in the battered financials sector.
Global funds with high exposure to the US are also worth a look: CF Richmond Core, an GBP11.6m fund, and the GBP3.7 billion M&G Global Basics have 66.6% and 30.8% respectively in America.
Another way of gaining exposure is through European companies with the highest sales exposure to the Americas. Excluding financials, these include Lon-don-listed Hochschild Mining (100%); pipe-line products firm Wellstream Holdings (90.5%); BBA Aviation (77%); retail jeweller Signet (73.8%); and biopharmaceutical company Shire (73.8%), HSBC said.
Others, though, are bearish. Mark Dampier at adviser Hargreaves Lansdown points to AA-rated manager Philip Gibbs, who has almost 60% of his Jupiter Financial Opportunities in cash and fixed-interest instruments. "He has a great track record so I'd leave it to someone like him and not try to time the market," said Dampier.
American property might remain in the doldrums, but a growing number of British buyers are seeing opportunities to buy in on the cheap. Foreign-exchange firm World First has seen a 38% year-on-year jump in inquiries from Britons looking to buy in the four months to the end of July.
Around 45% of business at Top Producers Realty, a property broker based in Naples, Florida, has come from Britons so far this year, compared with 28% in 2007.
Craig Peevor, 37, from West Bromwich, works for a property company in Britain and recently bought two bungalows in Buffalo, New York State, for a total of GBP14,000 and is letting them to American families.
He said: "With the state of the US property market at the moment, I effectively got the bungalow half-price. I am planning to buy one or two properties a year to give me an additional income."
Those thinking of following in his footsteps should think ahead. "If you're looking at that US dream home, buying dollars and keeping them in your back pocket may be a very sensible play," said Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First.
星期日, 8月 17, 2008
黃金兵敗如山倒
其中致命原因是全球黃金需求於08年第2季按年下跌19%至735.6吨:
「In the second quarter, gold consumption fell to 735.6 tonnes, down 19 per cent against the same period last year, led by a 24 per cent drop in jewellery demand, the industry-backed World Gold Council said on Wednesday.」
------------------------------------------
Demand weakness hurts gold
(FT -- August 13 2008)
By Javier Blas
Two pillars have supported the boom in gold prices in recent years: strong demand and lacklustre supply. The latter remains a robust buttress, but the foundations of the former are cracking under the weight of record prices.
In the second quarter, gold consumption fell to 735.6 tonnes, down 19 per cent against the same period last year, led by a 24 per cent drop in jewellery demand, the industry-backed World Gold Council said on Wednesday. That drop in consumption deepens a fall of 18 per cent in the first half of this year compared to the equivalent period last year.
The large contraction, analysts said, darkens the previously bright outlook for bullion. It also helps explain why gold prices, after hitting a record high of US$1,030.80 an ounce in March, have fallen back to just above US$800.
But the cracks in the demand pillar do not mean that gold prices are about to collapse to the US$250 an ounce low of 1999, nor that a correction to US$600 an ounce – the level of January 2007 – is on the cards, analysts said.
Suki Cooper, a precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital, said gold prices were more likely to trade between US$800-US$900 for the rest of this year and 2009.
Nevertheless, some investors have taken notice of the change in gold's fortunes and are liquidating their positions. "The speculative element is coming off," said Jill Leyland, economic advisor at the WGC in London.
The sudden resurgence of the dollar, and calming of fears about inflation have added to the selling. Indeed, the exit of speculative money can be seen in the bullion holdings of the world's largest gold exchange traded fund – the New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares – which fell on Tuesday to 659.03 tonnes, down 6.6 per cent from a peak of 705.9 tonnes last month.
One particular concern among investors is the plunge in gold demand in India, by far the world's largest consumer of gold. Between April and June, jewellery and investment demand fell there by 45 per cent. Demand also fell in Turkey and the Middle East, but held in China and rose strongly in Vietnam.
The WGC said in its quarterly Gold Demands Trends report that the primary factor driving consumption lower was the continued strength in the gold price and volatility.
"Deteriorating conditions across many economies...acted as a further barrier to spending on gold jewellery," it added, pointing to large falls in US, UK and Italian jewellery demand, particularly in the middle and lower end of the market.
However, Dave Russell, of Gold Investments in Dublin, said that the recent fall in gold prices has triggered renewed interest in bullion, with evidence of retail investment picking up. Other analysts said that consumption in India was also showing a rebound.
Investors, in any case, can count for the time being on the support of the supply pillar.
In the second quarter, gold output increased just 1 per cent compared with the same period of a year ago, and the advance was only possible because a large amount of old gold returned to the market in the form of scrap.
Indeed, mined gold – the main source of supply – fell 4 per cent in the quarter, with increases in Russia and China unable to offset falls in Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. Nevertheless, mined output could increase in the future as miners exhaust the buy-back of old price hedges, which until now have restrained production.
For that reason, the main risk for investors – although it does not appear imminent – is the emergence of a fissure in the supply pillar, just as the demand column continues to fracture.
「In the second quarter, gold consumption fell to 735.6 tonnes, down 19 per cent against the same period last year, led by a 24 per cent drop in jewellery demand, the industry-backed World Gold Council said on Wednesday.」
------------------------------------------
Demand weakness hurts gold
(FT -- August 13 2008)
By Javier Blas
Two pillars have supported the boom in gold prices in recent years: strong demand and lacklustre supply. The latter remains a robust buttress, but the foundations of the former are cracking under the weight of record prices.
In the second quarter, gold consumption fell to 735.6 tonnes, down 19 per cent against the same period last year, led by a 24 per cent drop in jewellery demand, the industry-backed World Gold Council said on Wednesday. That drop in consumption deepens a fall of 18 per cent in the first half of this year compared to the equivalent period last year.
The large contraction, analysts said, darkens the previously bright outlook for bullion. It also helps explain why gold prices, after hitting a record high of US$1,030.80 an ounce in March, have fallen back to just above US$800.
But the cracks in the demand pillar do not mean that gold prices are about to collapse to the US$250 an ounce low of 1999, nor that a correction to US$600 an ounce – the level of January 2007 – is on the cards, analysts said.
Suki Cooper, a precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital, said gold prices were more likely to trade between US$800-US$900 for the rest of this year and 2009.
Nevertheless, some investors have taken notice of the change in gold's fortunes and are liquidating their positions. "The speculative element is coming off," said Jill Leyland, economic advisor at the WGC in London.
The sudden resurgence of the dollar, and calming of fears about inflation have added to the selling. Indeed, the exit of speculative money can be seen in the bullion holdings of the world's largest gold exchange traded fund – the New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares – which fell on Tuesday to 659.03 tonnes, down 6.6 per cent from a peak of 705.9 tonnes last month.
One particular concern among investors is the plunge in gold demand in India, by far the world's largest consumer of gold. Between April and June, jewellery and investment demand fell there by 45 per cent. Demand also fell in Turkey and the Middle East, but held in China and rose strongly in Vietnam.
The WGC said in its quarterly Gold Demands Trends report that the primary factor driving consumption lower was the continued strength in the gold price and volatility.
"Deteriorating conditions across many economies...acted as a further barrier to spending on gold jewellery," it added, pointing to large falls in US, UK and Italian jewellery demand, particularly in the middle and lower end of the market.
However, Dave Russell, of Gold Investments in Dublin, said that the recent fall in gold prices has triggered renewed interest in bullion, with evidence of retail investment picking up. Other analysts said that consumption in India was also showing a rebound.
Investors, in any case, can count for the time being on the support of the supply pillar.
In the second quarter, gold output increased just 1 per cent compared with the same period of a year ago, and the advance was only possible because a large amount of old gold returned to the market in the form of scrap.
Indeed, mined gold – the main source of supply – fell 4 per cent in the quarter, with increases in Russia and China unable to offset falls in Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. Nevertheless, mined output could increase in the future as miners exhaust the buy-back of old price hedges, which until now have restrained production.
For that reason, the main risk for investors – although it does not appear imminent – is the emergence of a fissure in the supply pillar, just as the demand column continues to fracture.
星期三, 8月 13, 2008
當最後堡壘失陷之時
商品價格泡沫爆破，由農產品小麥開始序幕，蔓延至銅、白銀、玉米，現時黃金和石油亦告失守。
那麼「最後堡壘」是什麼? 一定不是軟弱無力的農產品，而是煤(Coal)。
一直以來，人們一直以「嚴重供不應求」為理由來斷定國內煤價只升不跌，實情又是如何?
1) 囤積居奇是不爭的事實(間接從國內煤炭行業人仕中得悉)
2) 05至07年供應短缺的部份原因是政府打壓小型煤礦。然而，近期政府有放寬打壓的力度，這亦暗示09年的供應會略為增加。
3) 另外，各大煤礦公司每年亦增加其產量。
4) 在異常高的煤價下(秦皇島價挌由07年的RMB500/tonne大升至08年高位的RMB950/tonne左右)，自然需求增長會放緩。
5) 國際油價回落(油是煤的替代品)，亦會影響煤價。
6) 中國政府不會對高煤價坐視不理，高「CPI」和「PPI」是各國政府不願看見的事情。
7) 鑑於(6)，政府會加強各類針對煤礦行業的政策，包括提高資源稅、加快推動風電的發展，甚至間接干預煤炭市場。
因此，國內煤炭價格可能於2008年尾至2009年初開始轉弱。若然上述推論合理，這亦不難了解近數星期煤炭股的弱勢。
2008年4月尾「Anglo American」大幅於HK$36以上減持神華(1088)，可能是反映「行內人」近月來對國內煤炭行業的看法。
那麼「最後堡壘」是什麼? 一定不是軟弱無力的農產品，而是煤(Coal)。
一直以來，人們一直以「嚴重供不應求」為理由來斷定國內煤價只升不跌，實情又是如何?
1) 囤積居奇是不爭的事實(間接從國內煤炭行業人仕中得悉)
2) 05至07年供應短缺的部份原因是政府打壓小型煤礦。然而，近期政府有放寬打壓的力度，這亦暗示09年的供應會略為增加。
3) 另外，各大煤礦公司每年亦增加其產量。
4) 在異常高的煤價下(秦皇島價挌由07年的RMB500/tonne大升至08年高位的RMB950/tonne左右)，自然需求增長會放緩。
5) 國際油價回落(油是煤的替代品)，亦會影響煤價。
6) 中國政府不會對高煤價坐視不理，高「CPI」和「PPI」是各國政府不願看見的事情。
7) 鑑於(6)，政府會加強各類針對煤礦行業的政策，包括提高資源稅、加快推動風電的發展，甚至間接干預煤炭市場。
因此，國內煤炭價格可能於2008年尾至2009年初開始轉弱。若然上述推論合理，這亦不難了解近數星期煤炭股的弱勢。
2008年4月尾「Anglo American」大幅於HK$36以上減持神華(1088)，可能是反映「行內人」近月來對國內煤炭行業的看法。
星期二, 8月 12, 2008
08年第3季的策略的修定
08下半年以及09年的大形勢可能是(筆者已重覆多次有關商品價格和美元的看法):
1) 商品價格下降趨勢
2) 美元轉強
3) 歐羅、澳幣弱勢
4) 本地樓市交投淡靜
5) 內地銀行於08年第4季面對考驗
6) 外向型行業前景不俗
修定08年第3季的策略
金融: 匯控(5)、渣打(2888)、平保(2318) (以國際金融股為主力，商品價格下挫有利環球經濟的穩定發展)
航空: 國泰(293)、港機工程(44) (註: 油價弱勢已成)
貿易/供應鏈: 利豐(494)
港口: 中遠太平洋(1199)、招商局(144)
收租地產: 太古A(19)、恆隆地產(101)
零售: 華創(291)
台灣經濟: 台灣ETF(2837) (注意成交量不大)
鑑於不同的行業以及個別股票的不明朗因素，可以暫時避開以下股票:
思捷(330)
中移動(941)
招行(3968)
建行(939)
中石化(386)
中海發展(1138)
瑞房(272)
Disclaimer: 本網頁屬個人網誌，並不會給予任何投資建議。本網頁的一切言論並不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。本人亦無法保證網站內容的真確性及原整性。請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求証分析，一切賺蝕得失，概與本人無涉。
1) 商品價格下降趨勢
2) 美元轉強
3) 歐羅、澳幣弱勢
4) 本地樓市交投淡靜
5) 內地銀行於08年第4季面對考驗
6) 外向型行業前景不俗
修定08年第3季的策略
金融: 匯控(5)、渣打(2888)、平保(2318) (以國際金融股為主力，商品價格下挫有利環球經濟的穩定發展)
航空: 國泰(293)、港機工程(44) (註: 油價弱勢已成)
貿易/供應鏈: 利豐(494)
港口: 中遠太平洋(1199)、招商局(144)
收租地產: 太古A(19)、恆隆地產(101)
零售: 華創(291)
台灣經濟: 台灣ETF(2837) (注意成交量不大)
鑑於不同的行業以及個別股票的不明朗因素，可以暫時避開以下股票:
思捷(330)
中移動(941)
招行(3968)
建行(939)
中石化(386)
中海發展(1138)
瑞房(272)
Disclaimer: 本網頁屬個人網誌，並不會給予任何投資建議。本網頁的一切言論並不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。本人亦無法保證網站內容的真確性及原整性。請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求証分析，一切賺蝕得失，概與本人無涉。
星期一, 8月 11, 2008
死因調查
港資中高檔鐘錶零售商宜進利(304)突然暴趺，有傳是公司倒閉。若然傳聞屬實，其實不感意外:
1) 高負債(短期及長期負債達HK$5,436M，遠高於「Equity」的HK$2,972M)
2) 現金流十分弱，截至08財年的「Operating Cash Flow」為(-HK$487M)，而「Investing Cash Flow」為(-HK$2,650M)(其中包括HK$2,146M的收購的費用; 收購項目包括「Sincere Watch (444)」)。
3) (2)亦暗示宜進利過度發展。負數的「Operating Cash Flow」亦暗示生意的流動性很低，而公司累積過多的存貨。
這事件亦提醒投資者別忘記自由現金流和財務實力的重要性，只看盈利和市盈率是非常危險的。
1) 高負債(短期及長期負債達HK$5,436M，遠高於「Equity」的HK$2,972M)
2) 現金流十分弱，截至08財年的「Operating Cash Flow」為(-HK$487M)，而「Investing Cash Flow」為(-HK$2,650M)(其中包括HK$2,146M的收購的費用; 收購項目包括「Sincere Watch (444)」)。
3) (2)亦暗示宜進利過度發展。負數的「Operating Cash Flow」亦暗示生意的流動性很低，而公司累積過多的存貨。
這事件亦提醒投資者別忘記自由現金流和財務實力的重要性，只看盈利和市盈率是非常危險的。
股票市場獲利方法
嬴錢的方法都離不開以下:
1) 內線交易(#):
這方法是幾乎無可能的。第一，這是犯法。第二，只有很少撮人會收到「真料」。第三，投資者無有效方法去驗証「獨家料」的可靠性。
2) 行內人仕交易(#)，他們比較熟悉行業的虛實，尤其是行內個別營運者之強弱:
一些週期性行業，同時上市公司極具行業的代表性，成為行內人仕的交易對象。例子如航運和商品股票。另外，一些行業資訊透明度低，而且行業變化速度快的行業，亦是行內人仕的天下，例子如單產品的電子和半導體公司(當然不包括Intel這類恰度分散的巨型半導體企業)。
3) 利用事實與市場預期共識的分別，例如上市公司業績公佈的前後:
中短期間，市場是如此運作。然而，命中率不高，亦容易受市場情緒左右其結果。
4) 投機一些可能會轉變的「Driving Factors」，例如個別國家的經濟、商品價格和外匯匯率的變化對個別行業的影響，亦包括估值的變化(De-Rating/Re-Rating):
這是較為可取的做法，但極為考驗投資者的經驗、技術、知識、遠見、分析力、耐力、心理質素、市場觸覺、風險管理等等。
5) 以紀律性地定期「Buy & Hold」一些優質增長型的藍籌股(甚至買指數基金)，以耐性達致「財息兼收」的長線勝利:
知易但行難，而且十分考驗耐性和紀律性。
(6) 結合(4)和(5)兩個方法，進可攻，退可守(甚至涉及藍籌級數的優質週期股)。
# 即使資訊正確，(1)和(2)不一定會成功，原因是市場和內線或行內人仕的「邏輯」往往有很大的出入。
1) 內線交易(#):
這方法是幾乎無可能的。第一，這是犯法。第二，只有很少撮人會收到「真料」。第三，投資者無有效方法去驗証「獨家料」的可靠性。
2) 行內人仕交易(#)，他們比較熟悉行業的虛實，尤其是行內個別營運者之強弱:
一些週期性行業，同時上市公司極具行業的代表性，成為行內人仕的交易對象。例子如航運和商品股票。另外，一些行業資訊透明度低，而且行業變化速度快的行業，亦是行內人仕的天下，例子如單產品的電子和半導體公司(當然不包括Intel這類恰度分散的巨型半導體企業)。
3) 利用事實與市場預期共識的分別，例如上市公司業績公佈的前後:
中短期間，市場是如此運作。然而，命中率不高，亦容易受市場情緒左右其結果。
4) 投機一些可能會轉變的「Driving Factors」，例如個別國家的經濟、商品價格和外匯匯率的變化對個別行業的影響，亦包括估值的變化(De-Rating/Re-Rating):
這是較為可取的做法，但極為考驗投資者的經驗、技術、知識、遠見、分析力、耐力、心理質素、市場觸覺、風險管理等等。
5) 以紀律性地定期「Buy & Hold」一些優質增長型的藍籌股(甚至買指數基金)，以耐性達致「財息兼收」的長線勝利:
知易但行難，而且十分考驗耐性和紀律性。
(6) 結合(4)和(5)兩個方法，進可攻，退可守(甚至涉及藍籌級數的優質週期股)。
# 即使資訊正確，(1)和(2)不一定會成功，原因是市場和內線或行內人仕的「邏輯」往往有很大的出入。
星期日, 8月 10, 2008
星期六, 8月 09, 2008
預期之內，即使可能早了一點兒
大部份商品價格弱勢已成，這是一個令人鼓舞的發展，固中原因早前已經苦口婆心地重覆了很多次，即使其間有不少人硬說高商品價格乎合經濟供求。
或許當時是供不應求，但不能忽視泡沫的存在。無可否認，異常高的商品價格(尤其是油價)令人們減少對其的需求，或者是改變商品的消費模式。另外，各國政府亦不會坐視泡沫性的商品價格，因為人們的生活和商業活動已受其害。
可見將來不排除商品價格會進一步下挫，商品類股票數星期以來的弱勢並非偶然。現時持有商品資產的投資者「跳車」可能還來得切，原因是商品價格可能「低處未見低」，不少人仍相信商品僅是短期調整。
對於以下商品類股票，還是別沾手為妙 (下限預期以未來3至6個月計):
- 中海油(883) (下限預期: HK$9; 8月8日Close: HK$10.56)
- 神華(1088)(下限預期: HK$19; 8月8日Close: HK$24.9)
- 兗州煤(1171) (下限預期: HK$9.5; 8月8日Close: HK$12.64)
- 江西銅(358) (下限預期: HK$9; 8月8日Close: HK$11.48)
- 紫金(2899) (下限預期: HK$4.0 - 4.5; 8月8日Close: HK$5.0)
- 鉬業(3993) (下限預期: HK$4.5; 8月8日Close: HK$5.17)
或許當時是供不應求，但不能忽視泡沫的存在。無可否認，異常高的商品價格(尤其是油價)令人們減少對其的需求，或者是改變商品的消費模式。另外，各國政府亦不會坐視泡沫性的商品價格，因為人們的生活和商業活動已受其害。
可見將來不排除商品價格會進一步下挫，商品類股票數星期以來的弱勢並非偶然。現時持有商品資產的投資者「跳車」可能還來得切，原因是商品價格可能「低處未見低」，不少人仍相信商品僅是短期調整。
對於以下商品類股票，還是別沾手為妙 (下限預期以未來3至6個月計):
- 中海油(883) (下限預期: HK$9; 8月8日Close: HK$10.56)
- 神華(1088)(下限預期: HK$19; 8月8日Close: HK$24.9)
- 兗州煤(1171) (下限預期: HK$9.5; 8月8日Close: HK$12.64)
- 江西銅(358) (下限預期: HK$9; 8月8日Close: HK$11.48)
- 紫金(2899) (下限預期: HK$4.0 - 4.5; 8月8日Close: HK$5.0)
- 鉬業(3993) (下限預期: HK$4.5; 8月8日Close: HK$5.17)
星期五, 8月 08, 2008
勇者
剛剛閱讀馬沙的Blog，無意中得悉抗癌勇士Cindy已經安詳離世。或許遲了一點，但願Cindy能安息，並希望Cindy的家人能往後過著愉快的生活。
即使僅是一網之緣，但永遠不會忘記Cindy對生命的一份珍重，一份面對逆境的勇氣。
Anyway，藉此祝各位讀者身體健康。
另外，筆者會永久地連系著Cindy的Blog:
(http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/cindy-marco)
即使僅是一網之緣，但永遠不會忘記Cindy對生命的一份珍重，一份面對逆境的勇氣。
Anyway，藉此祝各位讀者身體健康。
另外，筆者會永久地連系著Cindy的Blog:
(http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/cindy-marco)
星期四, 8月 07, 2008
又是現金流的遊戲
太古A(19)剛公佈1H08業績，大體上是滿意的。簡而言之，強勁的租金收入和「Marine(海洋)」盈利部份抵消令人失望的航空業務。
經常核心純利(Recurring Core Net Profit)按年下降20.2%至HK$3,215M，但經營現金流(Operating Cash Flow)則按年上升35.6%至HK$4,247M，各主要業務的表現如下:
1) Property: Ex-valuation gain & asset sales core profit rose 14% yoy to HK$1,909M (1H07: HK$1,672M) on strong rental rate & lower vacancy; China property started to have contribution.
2) Aviation: Core profit from Associates (CX; Air China; Haeco) plunged to HK$10M amid loss from Cathay Pacific (293) (1H07 profit: HK$1,283M)
3) Beverage: Core profit dropped 10.5% yoy to HK$196M (1H07: HK$219M) on hiking cost despite moderate revenue growth.
4) Marine: Ex-asset sales core profit surged 32% yoy to HK$878M (1H07: HK$661M) on strong demand for offshore support service under hiking oil price.
5) Trading & Industrials: Core profit rose 14.4% yoy to HK$222M (1H07: HK$194M) given strong retail operation, offsetting weak Taiwanese auto-sales operation.
強勁的現金流和穩健的財務策略是太古的優勢，未來中國租金收入會大增，另外不排除於可見將來於平價吸納中國靚地。油價回落可能有利航空業務，即使期望落空「Marine」業務可能有助抵消高油價對航空業務的不利影響。
講住咁多先.......
經常核心純利(Recurring Core Net Profit)按年下降20.2%至HK$3,215M，但經營現金流(Operating Cash Flow)則按年上升35.6%至HK$4,247M，各主要業務的表現如下:
1) Property: Ex-valuation gain & asset sales core profit rose 14% yoy to HK$1,909M (1H07: HK$1,672M) on strong rental rate & lower vacancy; China property started to have contribution.
2) Aviation: Core profit from Associates (CX; Air China; Haeco) plunged to HK$10M amid loss from Cathay Pacific (293) (1H07 profit: HK$1,283M)
3) Beverage: Core profit dropped 10.5% yoy to HK$196M (1H07: HK$219M) on hiking cost despite moderate revenue growth.
4) Marine: Ex-asset sales core profit surged 32% yoy to HK$878M (1H07: HK$661M) on strong demand for offshore support service under hiking oil price.
5) Trading & Industrials: Core profit rose 14.4% yoy to HK$222M (1H07: HK$194M) given strong retail operation, offsetting weak Taiwanese auto-sales operation.
強勁的現金流和穩健的財務策略是太古的優勢，未來中國租金收入會大增，另外不排除於可見將來於平價吸納中國靚地。油價回落可能有利航空業務，即使期望落空「Marine」業務可能有助抵消高油價對航空業務的不利影響。
講住咁多先.......
收貨 (重新刊載)
鑑於技術原因，重新刊載渣打(2888)的文章......
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無令人失望的業績，次按(sub-prime)從來不為渣打(2888)帶來大麻煩，但仍須看下半年亞洲、非洲和中東的表現。若然油價和商品價格繼續回落，應該前景唔會差得去邊。龍與象的合作，可能是新的機遇......
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Standard Chartered Net Rises 31%, Beating Estimates
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Standard Chartered Plc, the U.K. bank that earns most of its money in Asia, said first-half profit rose 31 percent, helped by corporate lending in India and Hong Kong.
Standard Chartered rose as much as 6.8 percent after the bank said today in a statement that net income increased to US$1.79 billion, or US$1.25 a share, in the six months ended June 30, from US$1.37 billion, or 97.1 cents, a year earlier. That beat the US$1.68 billion average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg......
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無令人失望的業績，次按(sub-prime)從來不為渣打(2888)帶來大麻煩，但仍須看下半年亞洲、非洲和中東的表現。若然油價和商品價格繼續回落，應該前景唔會差得去邊。龍與象的合作，可能是新的機遇......
-----------------------------------------------
Standard Chartered Net Rises 31%, Beating Estimates
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Standard Chartered Plc, the U.K. bank that earns most of its money in Asia, said first-half profit rose 31 percent, helped by corporate lending in India and Hong Kong.
Standard Chartered rose as much as 6.8 percent after the bank said today in a statement that net income increased to US$1.79 billion, or US$1.25 a share, in the six months ended June 30, from US$1.37 billion, or 97.1 cents, a year earlier. That beat the US$1.68 billion average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg......
We are a Conservative Company
國泰(293)錄得(HK$663M)的半年虧損，扣除美國的訴訟撥備(HK$468M)，虧損為(HK$195M)，較預期為差。
然而，收入令人滿意，在「ATK (Capacity)」、「Load Factor (Utilization Rate)」、「Yield (ASP)」的上升下，營業額按年增加22.6%至HK$42.5B。在優質的服務，以及國泰加港龍於亞太區及其他地區的全面航線網絡下，再加上機票價格的調高，營業收入比預期還要高。「Ex-Fuel Margin」按年上升5.48百分比點至45.2%。
「Revenue Growth」及「Ex-Fuel Margin」是收貨的，而國泰管理層亦盡了自身的責任。
比預期差的業績主要元兇是1)高油價和2)比預期低約油價對沖利潤:
高油價
1H08的平均航空油價按年大升59%至US$132/Barrel(期間普通油價為US$115左右)，再加上機隊和航班的增長下，燃油成本按年上升83%至(HK$19.3B)。
油價對沖利潤
國泰僅將30%的用油量對沖(相對星航的60%)，而管理層以「Cathay didn't hedge more because "we are a conservative company,". Hedging is "difficult to get right," as a sharp drop in oil costs can leave airlines locked into paying higher fuel prices.」來回應。
作為審慎的經營者，國泰管理層的做法亦算合理。今年的油價(最高為US$147/Barrel)實在有泡沫的成份，而很多的計算方法亦贊同此說法。若然於US$120至US$145「鎖定」2H08的油價成本實算不智。
有幾點是值得留意的:
1) 燃油附加費可能於2H08部份抵消高油價。
2) 國泰加快令高耗油舊飛機的退役速度，有助於2H08舒緩高油價的壓力。
3) 扣除「Depreciation」及「美國的訴訟撥備」後的「Operating Cash Flow」仍是正數。
4) 「Balance Sheet」仍是安全，沒有「財務危機」的風險。萬一出現財務問題，背後還有太古的後台支援。
5) 管理層沒有削航班的計劃，舉腳贊同。在不少同行倒閉下的逆境，正是增加「Market Share」的黃金時機。
6) 短期股價可能會出現「Knee-Jerk」式波動，但是現價已反映不少壞消息。
7) 近日油價和其他商品價格走勢偏軟，形勢開紿令人滿意。市場不少人開始留意航空股。
8) 「油價」才是國泰股價的中期「Driving Factor」，反正管理層已做了其他應做的事情。
9) 以「P/B」或「Sums of the Parts」計，現價(HK$14.74)是吸引的。
10) 航空股是「Cyclical」，「不具投機心理準備」和「Backward Thinking」的讀者不宜沾手。另外，部位控制亦十分重要!
然而，收入令人滿意，在「ATK (Capacity)」、「Load Factor (Utilization Rate)」、「Yield (ASP)」的上升下，營業額按年增加22.6%至HK$42.5B。在優質的服務，以及國泰加港龍於亞太區及其他地區的全面航線網絡下，再加上機票價格的調高，營業收入比預期還要高。「Ex-Fuel Margin」按年上升5.48百分比點至45.2%。
「Revenue Growth」及「Ex-Fuel Margin」是收貨的，而國泰管理層亦盡了自身的責任。
比預期差的業績主要元兇是1)高油價和2)比預期低約油價對沖利潤:
高油價
1H08的平均航空油價按年大升59%至US$132/Barrel(期間普通油價為US$115左右)，再加上機隊和航班的增長下，燃油成本按年上升83%至(HK$19.3B)。
油價對沖利潤
國泰僅將30%的用油量對沖(相對星航的60%)，而管理層以「Cathay didn't hedge more because "we are a conservative company,". Hedging is "difficult to get right," as a sharp drop in oil costs can leave airlines locked into paying higher fuel prices.」來回應。
作為審慎的經營者，國泰管理層的做法亦算合理。今年的油價(最高為US$147/Barrel)實在有泡沫的成份，而很多的計算方法亦贊同此說法。若然於US$120至US$145「鎖定」2H08的油價成本實算不智。
有幾點是值得留意的:
1) 燃油附加費可能於2H08部份抵消高油價。
2) 國泰加快令高耗油舊飛機的退役速度，有助於2H08舒緩高油價的壓力。
3) 扣除「Depreciation」及「美國的訴訟撥備」後的「Operating Cash Flow」仍是正數。
4) 「Balance Sheet」仍是安全，沒有「財務危機」的風險。萬一出現財務問題，背後還有太古的後台支援。
5) 管理層沒有削航班的計劃，舉腳贊同。在不少同行倒閉下的逆境，正是增加「Market Share」的黃金時機。
6) 短期股價可能會出現「Knee-Jerk」式波動，但是現價已反映不少壞消息。
7) 近日油價和其他商品價格走勢偏軟，形勢開紿令人滿意。市場不少人開始留意航空股。
8) 「油價」才是國泰股價的中期「Driving Factor」，反正管理層已做了其他應做的事情。
9) 以「P/B」或「Sums of the Parts」計，現價(HK$14.74)是吸引的。
10) 航空股是「Cyclical」，「不具投機心理準備」和「Backward Thinking」的讀者不宜沾手。另外，部位控制亦十分重要!
星期三, 8月 06, 2008
Soda Water妙用
簡單材料，可能做出不俗的飲料，比起飲高糖的汽水較為健康。
一份利賓納，加五至六份梳打水
一份「Tropicana 蘋果汁」，加一份梳打水 (講明先，唔好貪平買果汁先生)
當然，梳打水亦是一種很有效的清潔劑.....
註: 梳打水是指無糖黑罐的「Soda Water」(水 + CO2)。
一份利賓納，加五至六份梳打水
一份「Tropicana 蘋果汁」，加一份梳打水 (講明先，唔好貪平買果汁先生)
當然，梳打水亦是一種很有效的清潔劑.....
註: 梳打水是指無糖黑罐的「Soda Water」(水 + CO2)。
星期二, 8月 05, 2008
是敗還是勝?
呢個世界十分有趣，又D野好似贏梗又唔一定贏，又時以為輸梗又有反敗為勝的機會......
商業世界到頭來還是「競爭優勢」和「現金流」的遊戲，汰弱留強亦是自然不過的事情。
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Cathay at 14 Times Profit Excludes China Revaluation
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is getting an unanticipated benefit from record jet-fuel costs that have helped push the shares down almost 30 percent this year.
Hong Kong's largest airline flew 14 percent more passengers in the first half as higher fuel bills put cut-rate carrier Oasis Hong Kong Airlines out of business. Cathay's Chinese routes helped make the company's sales growth the second-fastest among the 13 airlines in the Bloomberg Asia Pacific Airlines Index, behind Australia's Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd.
The shares fell to their lowest valuation in almost two years on July 2 after the company said it couldn't predict the impact on earnings of a doubling in jet-fuel prices. The decline left Cathay valued at 14 times estimated 2008 profit, compared with an average of 16 for the index.
"The airline has almost reached the bottom," said Winson Fong, who oversees about US$3 billion at SG Asset Management in Hong Kong. "The stock is getting cheap and is becoming attractive for a long-term holding."
Chief Executive Officer Tony Tyler, 53, will announce first- half earnings tomorrow. The shares rose as much as 1.9 percent and remained unchanged in Hong Kong at 10:30 a.m.
Cathay, which has an alliance with Air China, filled 80 percent of seats this year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points. The higher sales come as the airline more than doubled fuel surcharges this year to counter higher costs.
28% Rise
The sales gain will help the shares rise 28 percent to HK$18.75, according to Mark Webb, an analyst at HSBC, who rates the carrier "overweight."
"Cathay's hub in Hong Kong has the best connectivity in Asia in terms of frequencies to key destinations," Webb said. The company's brand, location, financial strength and routes make it a "likely winner" in a high fuel-cost environment, he said.
"Cathay's service, compared to the Chinese airlines, is so much better," said Chris Folino, 33, a Hong Kong-based manufacturer who flies weekly. He said he prefers Cathay for long-haul flights and its Dragonair unit to visit the mainland cities of Hangzhou, Qingdao, Fuzhou and Shanghai.
Oasis Hong Kong Airlines, which flew to London and Vancouver, halted service on April 9 after 17 months, crippled by jet fuel as well as competition from Cathay Pacific and British Airways Plc.
Amassing Cash
Economy-class revenue for Cathay rose 14.9 percent last year, while first- and business-class sales increased 20.7 percent, the company said in its annual report. The growth helped the company more than double its cash and short-term investments to $869.5 million in 2007 over their level of three years before.
The carrier's cash ratio, an indicator of liquid assets compared to liabilities, is 70 percent, the fourth-highest in the Asia Pacific Airlines Index.
"Cathay's cash flow has been strong," said Louis Wong, a fund manager who oversees US$40 million at Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. "While other airlines are on their knees, Cathay is still able to survive."
The company's profit margin of 9.3 percent is almost double the average of 5.3 percent for the index, while its debt-to-asset ratio of 36 is lower than those of China Southern Airlines Co., China Eastern Airlines Co. and Air China Ltd., the country's three biggest carriers.
Pay Cut
All three increased surcharges and trimmed capacity to cope with higher fuel prices. China Southern cut the pay of executives, including Chairman Liu Shaoyong, 10 percent last month to help offset fuel costs. The shares of each have fallen more than half this year in Hong Kong trading.
Cathay hedged only 30 percent of its fuel needs for this year, half the level of Singapore Airlines Ltd.
Global airlines may report a collective loss of as much as US$6.1 billion this year as spiraling fuel costs and a slowing economy wipe out earnings, the International Air Transport Association said in June.
"Cathay is financially healthy, unlike mainland rivals," said Francis Chu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at South China Securities who advises buying shares. "Oil prices are already reflected in the share price and Cathay has opportunities."
商業世界到頭來還是「競爭優勢」和「現金流」的遊戲，汰弱留強亦是自然不過的事情。
-----------------------------------------------------
Cathay at 14 Times Profit Excludes China Revaluation
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is getting an unanticipated benefit from record jet-fuel costs that have helped push the shares down almost 30 percent this year.
Hong Kong's largest airline flew 14 percent more passengers in the first half as higher fuel bills put cut-rate carrier Oasis Hong Kong Airlines out of business. Cathay's Chinese routes helped make the company's sales growth the second-fastest among the 13 airlines in the Bloomberg Asia Pacific Airlines Index, behind Australia's Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd.
The shares fell to their lowest valuation in almost two years on July 2 after the company said it couldn't predict the impact on earnings of a doubling in jet-fuel prices. The decline left Cathay valued at 14 times estimated 2008 profit, compared with an average of 16 for the index.
"The airline has almost reached the bottom," said Winson Fong, who oversees about US$3 billion at SG Asset Management in Hong Kong. "The stock is getting cheap and is becoming attractive for a long-term holding."
Chief Executive Officer Tony Tyler, 53, will announce first- half earnings tomorrow. The shares rose as much as 1.9 percent and remained unchanged in Hong Kong at 10:30 a.m.
Cathay, which has an alliance with Air China, filled 80 percent of seats this year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points. The higher sales come as the airline more than doubled fuel surcharges this year to counter higher costs.
28% Rise
The sales gain will help the shares rise 28 percent to HK$18.75, according to Mark Webb, an analyst at HSBC, who rates the carrier "overweight."
"Cathay's hub in Hong Kong has the best connectivity in Asia in terms of frequencies to key destinations," Webb said. The company's brand, location, financial strength and routes make it a "likely winner" in a high fuel-cost environment, he said.
"Cathay's service, compared to the Chinese airlines, is so much better," said Chris Folino, 33, a Hong Kong-based manufacturer who flies weekly. He said he prefers Cathay for long-haul flights and its Dragonair unit to visit the mainland cities of Hangzhou, Qingdao, Fuzhou and Shanghai.
Oasis Hong Kong Airlines, which flew to London and Vancouver, halted service on April 9 after 17 months, crippled by jet fuel as well as competition from Cathay Pacific and British Airways Plc.
Amassing Cash
Economy-class revenue for Cathay rose 14.9 percent last year, while first- and business-class sales increased 20.7 percent, the company said in its annual report. The growth helped the company more than double its cash and short-term investments to $869.5 million in 2007 over their level of three years before.
The carrier's cash ratio, an indicator of liquid assets compared to liabilities, is 70 percent, the fourth-highest in the Asia Pacific Airlines Index.
"Cathay's cash flow has been strong," said Louis Wong, a fund manager who oversees US$40 million at Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. "While other airlines are on their knees, Cathay is still able to survive."
The company's profit margin of 9.3 percent is almost double the average of 5.3 percent for the index, while its debt-to-asset ratio of 36 is lower than those of China Southern Airlines Co., China Eastern Airlines Co. and Air China Ltd., the country's three biggest carriers.
Pay Cut
All three increased surcharges and trimmed capacity to cope with higher fuel prices. China Southern cut the pay of executives, including Chairman Liu Shaoyong, 10 percent last month to help offset fuel costs. The shares of each have fallen more than half this year in Hong Kong trading.
Cathay hedged only 30 percent of its fuel needs for this year, half the level of Singapore Airlines Ltd.
Global airlines may report a collective loss of as much as US$6.1 billion this year as spiraling fuel costs and a slowing economy wipe out earnings, the International Air Transport Association said in June.
"Cathay is financially healthy, unlike mainland rivals," said Francis Chu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at South China Securities who advises buying shares. "Oil prices are already reflected in the share price and Cathay has opportunities."
亨特兄弟 (Hunt Brothers)
如果將投資(機)市場說成歷史的重覆週期，不排除古老的故仔亦能再度被演譯。每一次的劇情沒有太大的改變，只不過演員和背景不同。正所謂「人在做，天在看」......
於1980年代初，亨特兄弟看準工商業(化工、相片菲林行業)對白銀需求的增加，因此聯合多家投機商買入全球多個白銀礦，亦透過宣傳工具間接令大眾人群買賣各類白銀的投資產品。當時以亨特兄弟為首的「白銀聯盟」相信合共買進2億盎司(Oz)的白銀，或者是全球大約一半的總供應量。當然，胸有成竹的亨特兄弟亦持有大量白銀期貨的長倉(Long Position)。
一時間幾乎所有人都深信白銀價格「只升不跌」，而白銀價格從1979年的US$5大幅上升至1980年初的US$50。
相信當時飽讀詩書的「專家」一定會這樣說: 「全球供應緊絀下，再加上人們對白銀的需求有增無減下，未來數個月白銀價格可望US$70。在嚴重的供不應求下，兩年內白銀可見US$200......」
接著發生什麼事情?
暴升的白銀價格令化工和菲林製造商反感，而企圖壟斷全球白銀市場的「野心」令全球的大莊家(以美國為首的發達國家)妒忌。
大莊家有很多方法去剌破任何不正常的泡沫，例如「限制銀行給予投機者的貸款」、「令交易所增加白銀期貨的保證金(Margin)」、或者「以無限的資金沽空白銀期貨合約」。坊間人們見到白銀價格開始下跌時，便會峰擁地走出來沽出手頭上的白銀實物資產。
結局不用多說。值得一提，1980年3月27日一天內，白銀價格由US$21.6急瀉至US$10.8，而亨特兄其後申請破產。
有幾點可以值得留意:
1) 商品的投資(機)市場的故事不曾改變過，只不過是人們善忘而矣。同一故事時常重覆，只不過每一次的演員和背景都不同。
2) 當大眾只信不疑地投入一個市場，便是離場之際。
3) 別狂妄地與「大莊家」對著幹，閣下的勝算小得可憐。
4) 滿口數據的「專家」，只是沈悶的行情報導員，但小心被他們一本正經的形象騙倒。
5) 嚴重影響民生的商品價格水平，不能持久下去。別忘記「水能載舟，亦能覆舟」，筆者欲加多句話 --- 「損害公家利益的事情幹不過」。
6) 如果以「2008年的油價」代替「1980年的白銀價格」，又會怎麼樣?
於1980年代初，亨特兄弟看準工商業(化工、相片菲林行業)對白銀需求的增加，因此聯合多家投機商買入全球多個白銀礦，亦透過宣傳工具間接令大眾人群買賣各類白銀的投資產品。當時以亨特兄弟為首的「白銀聯盟」相信合共買進2億盎司(Oz)的白銀，或者是全球大約一半的總供應量。當然，胸有成竹的亨特兄弟亦持有大量白銀期貨的長倉(Long Position)。
一時間幾乎所有人都深信白銀價格「只升不跌」，而白銀價格從1979年的US$5大幅上升至1980年初的US$50。
相信當時飽讀詩書的「專家」一定會這樣說: 「全球供應緊絀下，再加上人們對白銀的需求有增無減下，未來數個月白銀價格可望US$70。在嚴重的供不應求下，兩年內白銀可見US$200......」
接著發生什麼事情?
暴升的白銀價格令化工和菲林製造商反感，而企圖壟斷全球白銀市場的「野心」令全球的大莊家(以美國為首的發達國家)妒忌。
大莊家有很多方法去剌破任何不正常的泡沫，例如「限制銀行給予投機者的貸款」、「令交易所增加白銀期貨的保證金(Margin)」、或者「以無限的資金沽空白銀期貨合約」。坊間人們見到白銀價格開始下跌時，便會峰擁地走出來沽出手頭上的白銀實物資產。
結局不用多說。值得一提，1980年3月27日一天內，白銀價格由US$21.6急瀉至US$10.8，而亨特兄其後申請破產。
有幾點可以值得留意:
1) 商品的投資(機)市場的故事不曾改變過，只不過是人們善忘而矣。同一故事時常重覆，只不過每一次的演員和背景都不同。
2) 當大眾只信不疑地投入一個市場，便是離場之際。
3) 別狂妄地與「大莊家」對著幹，閣下的勝算小得可憐。
4) 滿口數據的「專家」，只是沈悶的行情報導員，但小心被他們一本正經的形象騙倒。
5) 嚴重影響民生的商品價格水平，不能持久下去。別忘記「水能載舟，亦能覆舟」，筆者欲加多句話 --- 「損害公家利益的事情幹不過」。
6) 如果以「2008年的油價」代替「1980年的白銀價格」，又會怎麼樣?
星期一, 8月 04, 2008
龍象合作
又是從「Financial Times」借文章，而今次有關「中印經貿」的聯系。合則利雙方，萬事以和為貴。
-----------------------------------------------------------
BANKS VIE TO EXPLOIT SINO-INDIA TRADE WAVE
Financial Times
Monday, August 04, 2008
Commercial banks are moving swiftly to strengthen and expand their operations to service the companies responsible for soaring trade levels between India and China.
Sino-Indian trade last year climbed by 56 per cent to US$38.7bn, according to Chinese data, and could reach US$60bn as early as this year rather than in 2010, as was previously expected.
Global banks with a strong footprint in Asia, such as Standard Chartered, have redeployed staff, while Indian and Chinese lenders such as Bank of China are increasingly focused on opportunities arising from the growing bilateral links.
Standard Chartered recently posted a senior Indian manager to Shanghai to service Indian clients in China and plans to move a Chinese manager to Mumbai this year. It has also started a talent exchange involving Indian and Chinese staff.
Shankar Vis, Standard Chartered's Asia-based group head of client coverage, said: "Both economies are still growing strongly and each country has comparative advantages in certain sectors, so we expect the trade flow to increase. We are well positioned to assist those companies operating in these markets."
The growing trade is being driven by the power and telecoms equipment sectors. India plans to invest US$500bn in infrastructure in the next five years to improve its ailing power and transport sectors.
Reliance Infrastructure last month formed a joint venture with Shanghai Electric to make power generation equipment. Indian companies also view China as an important base for low-cost manufacturing. Suzlon Energy, a wind power equipment producer, last year opened a US$600m plant in Tianjin.
The flows offer lucrative opportunities for commercial banks in areas such as trade finance, cash management and bond and guarantee issuance.
Other banks which operate in both countries, including Citigroup and HSBC, also report increased business on the back of rising bilateral trade.
Bank of Baroda, India's fifth-largest lender, last month received regulatory approval to set up a branch in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou.
-----------------------------------------------------------
BANKS VIE TO EXPLOIT SINO-INDIA TRADE WAVE
Financial Times
Monday, August 04, 2008
Commercial banks are moving swiftly to strengthen and expand their operations to service the companies responsible for soaring trade levels between India and China.
Sino-Indian trade last year climbed by 56 per cent to US$38.7bn, according to Chinese data, and could reach US$60bn as early as this year rather than in 2010, as was previously expected.
Global banks with a strong footprint in Asia, such as Standard Chartered, have redeployed staff, while Indian and Chinese lenders such as Bank of China are increasingly focused on opportunities arising from the growing bilateral links.
Standard Chartered recently posted a senior Indian manager to Shanghai to service Indian clients in China and plans to move a Chinese manager to Mumbai this year. It has also started a talent exchange involving Indian and Chinese staff.
Shankar Vis, Standard Chartered's Asia-based group head of client coverage, said: "Both economies are still growing strongly and each country has comparative advantages in certain sectors, so we expect the trade flow to increase. We are well positioned to assist those companies operating in these markets."
The growing trade is being driven by the power and telecoms equipment sectors. India plans to invest US$500bn in infrastructure in the next five years to improve its ailing power and transport sectors.
Reliance Infrastructure last month formed a joint venture with Shanghai Electric to make power generation equipment. Indian companies also view China as an important base for low-cost manufacturing. Suzlon Energy, a wind power equipment producer, last year opened a US$600m plant in Tianjin.
The flows offer lucrative opportunities for commercial banks in areas such as trade finance, cash management and bond and guarantee issuance.
Other banks which operate in both countries, including Citigroup and HSBC, also report increased business on the back of rising bilateral trade.
Bank of Baroda, India's fifth-largest lender, last month received regulatory approval to set up a branch in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou.
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