一動不如一靜

金融時報(Financial Times)近日有一篇講述有關「長線持有(Buy & Hold)」及「短線炒賣(Short-term trading)」的文章(名為「Making a profit is only a matter of time」)。

事實上，「Market timing」是十分艱難的，而現實限制(如心理質素、市場資訊不平衡、市場情緒的不確定性、投資者技術之差異等因素)往往令大部份過度交易(Over Trade)的投資者跑輸給大市。

「It can be tempting during times of stock market uncertainty to delay making investment decisions or to sell existing holdings in the hope of buying back in when values are lower," says Peter Hicks, executive director of UK retail at Fidelity Investments. "In theory this is an attractive idea, but it seldom works in practice.」


最諷刺的是，富達(Fidelity)一份研究指出大部份的股票升幅通常於短時間內發生，這亦暗示「Market timing」是不容易的。因此，看好中長線股票前景的投資者老老實實地留在市場內，總好過時常買賣出入。

「We often find people have timed it almost exactly wrong," says Kate Warne, a market strategist at Edward Jones, the financial adviser.」

「Research from Fidelity shows that investors are better off staying in the market, rather than timing buying and selling, as relatively few trading days have contributed to the overall performance of UK equity markets.」


文章以英國投資專家Mick Gilligan的簡單而王道之投資策略為總結 --- 「以相對穩定的股票投資組合為主力(或者是以優質藍籌為核心)，同時間以企業前景和估值來決定買賣時機」

「Gilligan believes the best option for investors is to hold a relatively stable portfolio for the long term, trim their positions when they believe they are overvalued and increase their positions when they look oversold.」

「The danger is that when something looks overbought investors sell everything and do it too early," he says.

He emphasises the importance of basing investment decisions on company fundamentals - valuations and growth prospects - and, once these are made, using market timing to "finesse the entry and exit points".」

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Making a profit is only a matter of time
By Sharlene Goff
July 24, 2008


Turbulent stock markets are providing a fertile ground for active investors looking to make a quick profit. But these unstable conditions have brought renewed warnings from advisers about the dangers of timing equity trades to catch the top or bottom of the market.

Analysts say investors who try to judge short-term fluctuations put themselves at risk of locking in losses, while missing out on any rebound.

"It can be tempting during times of stock market uncertainty to delay making investment decisions or to sell existing holdings in the hope of buying back in when values are lower," says Peter Hicks, executive director of UK retail at Fidelity Investments. "In theory this is an attractive idea, but it seldom works in practice."

A hurdle for investors is that market falls, and any subsequent recovery, tend to occur over short periods of time.

"Because these gains often occur just before, or after, a market fall, an investor who tries to avoid falls is highly likely to miss the best gains," says Hicks.

The danger is that people sell when shares have already lost much of their value and then fail to go back in quickly enough to capture the rise.

"We often find people have timed it almost exactly wrong," says Kate Warne, a market strategist at Edward Jones, the financial adviser.

Research from Fidelity shows that investors are better off staying in the market, rather than timing buying and selling, as relatively few trading days have contributed to the overall performance of UK equity markets.

For example, if GBP1,000 was invested in the UK stock market 15 years ago and left untouched, it would have been worth GBP3,260.58 at the end of last month. If, however, the best 10 trading days were stripped out, the investment would have been worth GBP2,147.09 and if the strongest 40 days were missed, it would have dropped in value to GBP885.32, according to Fidelity.

The feeling among advisers is that the markets have now been oversold and are likely to see a bounce back at some point. This week, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 officially fell into bear market territory, losing more than 20 per cent of their value since the peak last autumn.

Shares are thought to look good value but trying to pinpoint when recovery will materialise is difficult.

"If investors are brave and want to catch a bounce it could be quite a good time," says Ted Scott, manager of F&C's UK Growth & Income Fund. "It is rare that the market gets more over-sold."

However, he still believes there could be new lows over the short term, which investors must be prepared for.

"While we are now technically in a bear market for equities, in terms of the economic backdrop we are still not in a recession," he says. "If a recession does become a reality - and the risks lean that way - there could be further to go."

He says for investors taking a five to 10-year view, it could be a good time to invest.

Mick Gilligan at Killik & Co says picking the very bottom of the market will always be extremely difficult. He points out that the lows reached by the FTSE this year have typically been followed by sharp upward movements the same day.

He suggests investors do not try to be too precise about catching the market bottom. "Trying to time the absolute high and low is too difficult to do," he says. "The next three to six months could be a good entry point."

Picking the absolute bottom of the market also means buying at a time when sentiment is extremely negative. "It feels very scary to invest at this time," says Warne.

Investors tend to buy equities when they feel confident and move into safer assets such as cash when they feel nervous.

Data from Barclays Stockbrokers shows the split between buyers and sellers this week has been fairly even, suggesting investors are still undecided about which way the markets are heading.

Gilligan believes the best option for investors is to hold a relatively stable portfolio for the long term, trim their positions when they believe they are overvalued and increase their positions when they look oversold.

"The danger is that when something looks overbought investors sell everything and do it too early," he says.

He emphasises the importance of basing investment decisions on company fundamentals - valuations and growth prospects - and, once these are made, using market timing to "finesse the entry and exit points".