舉個簡單例子，當國家A向國家B的出口(Export)大於由國家B進口(Import)之貨物和服務等值，國家A便是淨出口國，或是處於貿易盈餘(經常賬戶盈餘)，如下:
出口等值 > 進口等值 --> 貿易盈餘
有幾點值得留意:
1) 全球的淨經常賬戶(Current Account)的總值應該是零，原因是所有出口國的貨物和服務最後由進口國消費。如果這個世界只有兩個國家(A和B)，那麼A的淨出口值是等同B的淨入口值。
2) 有效率的貿易活動是對出入口兩國都有利(互利和雙嬴局面)，原因是產品和服務可以於較高效益的地方生產/提供，亦即提高兩地對資源的利用效益(Resources Utilization Efficiency)。
3) 「商業本位(Mercantilism) #」之「零和遊戲(Zero-Sum Game)」論是不合理，一個經濟的規模是以其所享有的生產力(Productivity)來量度，而非由淨出口而流入的黃金和白銀數量來量度。
4) 貿易盈餘/赤字不是唯一解釋一個經濟體系匯率強弱的原因，至少不是最重要的原因。
5) 長期貿易盈餘/赤字與經濟強弱無正面關係。一些淨入口國(如美國和英國)的長期經濟增長強勁，這亦證明上述的貿易互利論。
值得一提不少人認為眾亞洲地區(包括中國)不斷向美國出口，令美國的貿易赤字擴大，因此美元只會走弱，令外美國會有大量就業機會會流失去中國。事實又是如何? 還是留作下回分解吧!
# 16至18世紀期間，歐洲一直奉行「商業本位(Mercantilism)」，當時各國以貴價金屬(如黃金、白銀等)來量度國家的財富。除此，商業本位支持者認為全球經濟是「零和遊戲(Zero-Sum Game)」，而一個國家的出口所帶來的淨貴價金屬流入等於入口者的財富流出。
然而，大量黃金流入西班牙(註: 16至17世紀的西班牙從南美洲的殖民地運入大量貴價金屬)不是令西班牙變得特別富有，而是帶來通漲。沒錯，貴價金屬的罕有特性一直支持其購買力。但短期間大量供應下，黃金的購買力難免下跌。
18 則留言:
值得一提不少人認為眾亞洲地區(包括中國)不斷向美國出口，令美國的貿易赤字擴大，因此美元只會走弱(一般理解：美匯弱有助出口，壓抑入口，改善貿赤，但問題系幾多美元先叫強呢？105 yen 定95？況且美國高科技，農產品幾貴都有實際需要，貴極都唔及石油，弱美元又比多個籍口人地轉U佬，賣美債，既損害大美帝自尊，又怕拉倒股市...)，令外美國會有大量就業機會會流失去中國(唔明？流失又好，輸出又好，都系個效益同轉形結果，而且今日祖國已經唔系咁純情，地盤佬一般唔接，識簡d青靚白淨著西裝既。)事實又是如何? 還是留作下回分解吧!
http://appledaily.atnext.com/template/apple/art_main.cfm?iss_id=20080703&sec_id=15307&subsec_id=15326&art_id=11304447&cat_id=75&coln_id=121
Hi, any comment on this article?
Sorry to say, but the professor doesn't understand the business model of Li & Fung.
1) Is it possible for the manufacturing jobs to return to the expensive USA/EU? I don't think so.
2) Besides, the sourcing network of Li & Fung is well diversified around the Asian-pacific region.
3) Li & Fung is not a low-end manufacturer, but a high-value-adding "Manufacturing Planner" who masters the supple-chain management alone the sophiscated value-chain. Thus, right time, right quality and right price from a network of up to 8,000 manufacturers.
4) Hiking commodity price and weakening US/EU economy will benefit Li & Fung more. No sophiscated theories but the retailers need to cut their cost.
5) Cost cut does not only refer to "Manufacturing Cost", but the "soft Cost" along the value chain. i.e. 3-soft dollar concept (note: better do some homework on it) For a product costing $4, only $1 is direct manufacturing cost; think where the another $3 comes from??
6) From (5), it can be seen the professor does not understand Li & Fung.
As I often reiterate, there are many misconceptions on Li & Fung.
If one finds it difficult to comprehend the business, better AVOID it.
1) if oil price rises to a certain level, the container transportation costs would be greater than the cost advantage of PRC manufacturers over US manufacturers, the export qty and amount would be hard hit. At which oil level? God knows. But I know a lot of PRC local government entities are now trying to give subsidies to exporting co (other than export tax rebates)
You may have only considered the "Direct Transportation cost".
However, it's merely a part of the "Soft 3 Dollars". Also, this's a matter of "how", "when" & "the way" to transport, and these imply value-adding platform companies will benefit under hiking commodities.
Regardless of the commodity price, every people need to necessities and consumer goods.
yup, regardless oil price, people need the goods, but US people may find US/mexico manufactured goods cheaper than Chinese goods if the transportation costs are too high, e.g. it is happening for heavy products like steel and machinery in US.
Theoretically, at a certain oil price, light industrial products would also be affected, say Mexico products would be cheaper than Chinese, note that Mexico is the last country to let go the Chinese entry of WTO, as it exports a lot to US. What is the 'turnaround' point for this to happen? Nobody knows.
well, actually it is potential risk to the Chinese economy, it affects the competibility of chinese exporters, not only a risk to LF particularly.
PLease note point (2) again:
Besides, the sourcing network of Li & Fung is well diversified around the Asian-pacific region.
I don't want to repeat the point again, but the sourcing network of Li & Fung is globalized, including the manufacturers in Asia, Europe, America and some in Africa. Thanks!
http://www.lifung.com/eng/network/map.php
我想話大家要留意貿易每個國家都有d 0unique trading barriers要由一個國家出口到另一個國家.....唔一定係最短路線最平..可以有anti-dumping....有tax rebate...transportation cost 同呢d 比可能只係有限$$$$$$..........Li & Fung 係做緊一個協調專家, 係各國不同trading barriers之下加上人客唔同要求下做出最平最合適產品....我會話Li&Fung 已經係呢方面expert唔係咁多公司有能力同佢一較高下
大家要明白現在唔係工廠對工廠.....而係supply chain 對supply chain ....有的產品梗係value chain VS value chain
生產成本,transportation cost 只係其中一d factors.....好似Foxconn....佢成本唔一定係最低.....不過佢做模具同埋project management強, response time 快(即係個客要改野,你幾快可以俾到佢?)..所以Apple 要搵佢做Ipod OEM.(好大可能係中間係改到8彩)........所以係一d產品會唔再係中國生產. 我個人認為中國生產唔係貴.係之前平我太離譜(因為加上退稅補貼). 好似現在唔小產品都係內銷,唔小factories 都係做local 生意已經做大做強.
learning path:
同 "Competiting in a Flat World"內既內容一模一樣......
"Value Chain"正是核心所在，聽幾句其實知道邊個明白邊個不是!
都係個句: 唔明既讀者最好還是不好沾手，始終同一隻股票不一定適合所有人!
Hi Albert,
冇話邊個對同錯. 只係international trade 呢幾年變得太快. Li & Fung 係manage change 的確係有一手.
我表達能力都係一般.其實重有好多例子先可以攪清楚supply chain management,不過要寫就要一定篇幅.建議大家唔明可以睇下Competiting in a Flat World 有中文版........如果想知多d Li & Fung 可以睇埋"供應鏈管理:利豐集團的實踐經驗"
我現時冇持有Li & Fung......不過係佢7-8HKD 時買過.......10 送1 之後sell 曬
learning path:
正是如此，其中一個我喜歡利豐既原因是其"SCM Business Model"不易被人容易明白、一手利豐既金錢不細、而且大眾傳媒一般對之誤解，這亦暗示持股人很少是散戶。
CapEx細既增長唔多，暗示利豐派息能力很強。
我就由HK$9開始儲貨，直至現在。保守估計，其"Market share Expansion"故仔可以至少維持多10年，直至更多小型既Merchandizing Firm被淘汰。
唔唔.......Lｉ ＆ Ｆｕｎｇ 我唔再買只有一個reason...就係Fung's brother 話曬事．．佢２人retire 之後．．．下一任Fung family 有冇咁醒．．．真係唔知...不過agree with you 重有好多年玩...
我唔會話利豐淘汰Merchandizing Firms. 反而係佢provide a platform (SCM platform) 俾一d中小型firm /factory 做一d 自己能力做唔到的客(不過唔一定係大生意,that's mean Li & Fung internal profit margin 唔到的orders). 呢個有時重好賺過自己親身做.
個platform Li & Fung provide credit terms to customer and financial aids to factories. Better freight rate by collective bargin. small Merch firm only do FOB orders however, Li & Fung is foucs on CIF orders as well.
即係送到customer warehouse / stores. 中間included all the expenses, insurance and risk. How to choose the transportation schedule and routie to min. import tax /max. export rebate.
我個人認為利和傾銷會係Li & Fung 未來會生金蛋的雞.................現在Fung's brother 私人買了唔小US/EU wholesale brand. 佢唔知幾時會玩出口轉內銷.
對!
不過有一點值得留意，細佬重Mgmt& Implementation，大佬重Strategic thinking，兩者皆有能之仕，分工得宜，新地式Crisis不易於Li & Fung發生。
Tradition Merchandizing Firms係會俾Li & fung淘汰，呢點不難想到的。
但加入Li & Fung Value Chain 既工廠(Factory)群應可受惠--> Win Win Scenario。
另外，Li & Fung屬於Asset-Light Platform Company，不會擁有任何工廠，但係背後的Coordinator。所以CapEx唔大，做既係Value Adding Service，但涉及(但不沾手)巨大的生產網絡。
原來你有玩#19、#272、#902、#3988，應該係東尼Fans....
未至於係fan 屎......不過唔小股都係佢先開始留意
19係因為佢間野係日常生活佢賺我太多$$$$$$,唔買就好笨(p.s. 同東尼冇咩關係)
272 係因為東尼先留意.相對其他伕內地股.財力比較穩健
902 係國內龍頭.....唔會有國家俾電廠倒閉.......(不過賺唔賺大錢係另一回事)
3988 都係國內重點銀行......買佢最主要係大家睇得佢太差(p.s.都係 同東尼冇咩關係)
其實重有3328, 呢隻係因為HSBC 同埋試用過佢d service 都幾好.......(p.s. 都係同東尼冇咩關係)
好!
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