What's Next?

美國投資銀行巨頭高盛(Goldman Sachs)剛公佈09年第2季的業績，在證券交易以及新股包銷等收入的帶動下，季度盈利達US$3.4B(EPS: US$4.93)，比預期(US$3.65)為高。

美國星級分析員Meredith Whitney亦在高盛公佈業績前一日調高該投資銀行的評級，亦間接令星期一的美股上升。

平情而論，表面上十分令人鼓舞的業積，事實上並不算有甚麼的特別。

打個比方，當確認第2季港股成交上升、港股上升、而且在一些大型新股集資之後，分析員立刻預測港交所(388)的第2季盈利可能會大幅上升，而且調升其目標價。

然而，當高盛的股價由3月份US$73.9升至最近的US$149.7，而港交所的股價亦由HK$54.6升至HK$116.8，看來大部份的有利因素已被市場反映。

筆者(正如一些市場參與者一樣)可能會問 ------- What's Next?

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Goldman Sachs Posts Record Profit, Beating Estimates (Update1)
(Bloomberg; 14 Jul 09)

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record earnings that beat analysts’ estimates as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds.

Second-quarter net income was $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share, the New York-based bank said today in a statement. That surpassed the $3.65 per-share average estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and compared with $2.09 billion, or $4.58 per share, in last year’s second quarter.

Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein made Goldman Sachs the highest-paying Wall Street firm in history before last year’s credit freeze led him to convert to a bank, accept government funds and report the first quarterly loss as a public company. This year Goldman Sachs has issued new stock, repaid the U.S. Treasury and reaped fees from selling stocks and bonds.

“Goldman’s got a sweet spot in here, they were the go-to players,” said Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees $13.8 billion including Goldman shares, before earnings were released. “For the time being, they’ve got kind of an open playing field all to themselves.”

Goldman Sachs, the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets, climbed 77 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading this year to close yesterday at $149.44. That’s almost triple the low of $52 on Nov. 20. The stock was at $149.81 today.