環球股票的成交量

從金融時報(Financial Times)引述「Citigroup」近日有關「全球股票和衍生產品成交金額」的調查(如下圖)。

值得留意的是，從2008年初至8月份，環球累計股票成交金額按年微升3%左右(8月份按年下跌37%)，其中亞洲、歐洲和中東錄得大約5%至10%的同比跌幅(8月份按年下跌40%至50%)。反觀美國，由1月至8月份之累計股票成交金額按年微升17%左右(8月份按年下跌27%左右)。

這趨勢亦可能暗示環球資金已回歸美國的股票市場。

即使其累計股票成交量不俗，美國於8月份的成交金額仍按年下跌，這極有可能是由於:
1)不少對沖基金於5至7月份下錯注「Long Commodities, Short Financials」錄得虧損後，往後操作變得較為保守
2) 環球資金在風險提高下漸見短缺，減少「Margin Trading」

順帶一題，疲弱的亞洲股票市場成交量正在暗示港交所(388)於2H08的業積可能轉弱。由於大量資金近數個月來已經撤離新與市場(見下文)，再加上中港兩地的市場氣氛變得悲觀，似乎難以看好該交易所於2009年的業績。

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REVERSAL OF FORTUNE FOR EMERGING MARKETS
(Financial Times; 11 Sep 08)

Outflows from emerging markets bond and equity funds reached US$29.5bn over the past three months, the highest level since at least 1995, with withdrawals gathering pace over the past week.

Investors headed for the exits as rising fears over slowing world growth and the state of the banking system over the past week added pressure on emerging markets – which were already reeling from weaker commodity prices, inflationary pressures, a stronger dollar and geopolitical concerns.

Investors switched US$1bn out of equity and fixed income funds on Monday, one of the highest daily outflows since records began in 1995, said EPFR Global, the data provider. Last week there were outflows of US$1.6bn, bringing the total since June 4 to US$29.5bn, the largest three-monthly figure since 1995.

The benchmark MSCI emerging market index yesterday fell 1.27 per cent to 857.44, the lowest level since March 2007. The fall extended its decline to 4.8 per cent over the past week and 22 per cent over past three months.