中交建(1800)下挫之謎

可以留以一下以下可能性:
1) 水泥、鋼材以及燃料成本高企，影響FY08的利潤率(不過中交建可能有能力轉嫁部份成本)
2) 國際資金撤離亞太區，並流入美國
3) 「De-rating」，如果用較保守的「Assumptions」去算其「DCF」，股價下跌亦不難理解
4) 「Dividend yield」太低，而且「P/E」又不算吸引，「Long Funds」不會急於入貨
5) 第5個原因可能幾有趣，亞太區國家在高通漲壓力下延遲或放緩其機建項目投資，中交建看來亦難以獨善其身。詳情如下:


INFLATION PUTS BRAKE ON ASIAN CONSTRUCTION
(Financial Times; 28 Jul 08)

Asian governments, faced with the highest inflation for a decade or more, are shelving billions of dollars worth of landmark infrastructure projects and shifting funds to more immediate economic assistance.

Given the threat presented by surging food and fuel prices, “the long-term projects go by the wayside in favour of short-term sops to keep people happy”, said Edward Teather, an economist at UBS in Singapore. "Clearly, inflation now affects everybody."

New governments that took office this year in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand after campaigning on promises to pump new funds into infrastructure are among those rearranging priorities.

The government of Samak Sundaravej in Bangkok had pledged to invest US$50bn (GBP25bn) on infrastructure over four years. Michael Buchanan, the chief economist for Asia at Goldman Sachs, noted that mention of large projects – such as US$9bn of planned investments in improved mass transit in Bangkok – was "conspicuously missing" from a US$1.4bn fiscal stimulus package announced this month. Instead, it included items such as subsidised public transport fares and residential electricity.

Lee Myung-bak successfully campaigned for the South Korean presidency promising to propel growth to 7 per cent a year with large-scale infrastructure investments, including a US$15bn cross-country canal. With the economy now declining, the canal has been shelved in favour of a US$10bn stimulus package comprised of tax rebates and new subsidies for low-income people.

In Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou spoke during his election campaign of 12 grand projects, costing US$130bn in total, that he would push if he won the presidency. While the start of those projects next year has not been postponed, his government is now focused on a US$37bn programme to prop up domestic demand and offset inflation.

In April, the Malaysian government cancelled construction of a US$2.5bn bullet-train line to Singapore in favour of a US$1.3bn move to stockpile food and increase production of rice, fruit and vegetables. Last month, the government shelved dam, road and monorail projects worth US$1.2bn in the state of Penang, which was won by the opposition in March elections. Officials cited spiralling energy and building material costs, while pledging extra funds for rice and anti-poverty programmes.

"Building projects are clearly under a lot of pressure, not only because of higher building costs but also tightening fiscal situations," says Chua Hak Bin, chief Asian strategist at Deutsche Bank private wealth management. "In many countries, big projects are also, sadly, very much tied to the politics."

In Singapore, authorities decided this week to delay S$1.7bn (US$1.2bn, GBP605m) of construction work, including a hospital, to rein in rising costs and alleviate acute shortages of labour and building materials.

Since November, Singapore has postponed S$4.7bn of construction work. Latest data show consumer prices climbing 7.5 per cent in June, a 26-year high, while Mr Chua estimated that construction costs in the city state had soared by 20 to 30 per cent over the past year.

An international project to link Beijing and Singapore by rail is also under threat.

TSO, a French group, won a tender last year to rehabilitate damaged track sections across Cambodia, with the backing of a $42m loan from the Asian Development Bank. However, an executive involved in the project said that building costs had risen by 85 per cent since the tender, requiring renegotiation, as the agreed price-escalation clause would be insufficient to cover the rise.