投資哲學


萬法歸一 ,股海唯心至上,到頭來無一法可得,亦無甚麽可失

投機、投資、或中短線交易,只要方法得當,則殊途同歸,並無對錯之分

投資的最高境界並非贏大錢,而是克服心魔


星期二, 3月 03, 2009

煩惱亦即菩提

當恐慌性情緒差不多充斥整過世界時,正當人們失去應有的理性和信心之際,其實所謂的煩惱可能是樂觀前景之前奏,當然不同人會有不同的想法。

用再顯淺的語言,即是說同一杯水可以是半滿、或者是半空。每人有各自選擇做人心態的自由,但相信聰明的人就不會愚昧至無條件地悲觀,尤其是有些審慎國際銀行又不能夠與RBS、AIG、Citigroup、BAC之流相提並論。

無謂多說,還請各位自行讀英文新聞、自行平衡優劣、自行思索、自行判斷.......

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HSBC Seeks Higher Asia Share as Competitors Retrench (Update2)
(Bloomberg; 3 Mar 09)

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, the bank that's raising 12.5 billion pounds (US$17.6 billion) in a stock sale, can take market share in Asia without acquisitions as bailed-out competitors retrench, said the head of HSBC's regional unit.

"Organically we can grow as our competitors withdraw, we can put our capacity to work so that means you don't have to be quick to buy something to do that," Sandy Flockhart, HSBC's chief executive officer for Asia-Pacific, said in an interview today. The bank is still open to making acquisitions in markets including China and South Korea, he said.

Competitors including Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. are under pressure to lend more in their home markets and reverse years of international expansion after accepting government bailouts. HSBC, founded in Hong Kong and China more than 140 years ago, hasn't taken any state funds, freeing it of such restrictions.

"We're a big powerhouse in emerging markets," Flockhart said. "Our profit generation in the last couple of years have been in emerging markets and that's where our real strength is.'

Shares of HSBC, which yesterday announced a 70 percent drop in full-year profit on losses arising from its U.S. consumer lending unit, fell the most in more than two decades in Hong Kong today. The stock tumbled 19 percent to HK$46.25, the lowest since October 1998.

Government Pressure
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said last week he plans to pressure lenders that have received government aid to focus more on helping domestic small businesses and families.

Northern Rock Plc would focus on mortgage lending in the U.K., offering 14 billion pounds of additional mortgages this year and in 2010, while RBS and National Westminster Bank Plc will provide financing to small firms, according to Brown's plan.

Citigroup last week revamped its 15-member board with a majority of new independent members in a U.S. government-induced shakeup. The move signals that banks may have to operate under heavier government influence if they resort to taxpayer-funded rescue packages.

Even as Asian economies cool and bad loans rise, governments probably won't have to take control of banks, said Flockhart, 57.

"At this moment in time Asia looks like it'll steer clear of" nationalizing banks, he said. "We're coming towards perhaps the bottom of the cycle and not seeing that happening. A lot of the Asian banks' capital ratios are very strong."


Korea, China
HSBC in September scrapped a US$6 billion plan to buy Korea Exchange Bank from Lone Star Funds after the global credit crisis slashed asset values. The withdrawal was the group's second failure in three years to expand through takeovers in the country.

Flockhart declined to say whether HSBC is still in talks with the bank. Korea Exchange Bank has raised 770 billion won (US$496 million) since November by selling subordinated bonds.

HSBC, which earns about 75 percent of its profit from emerging markets, plans to add between 10 and 15 branches to its network in mainland China, said Flockhart. It currently has 79 branches in the country, the most among overseas banks.

The bank has no plans to change its investment in Chinese financial companies, including a 19.9 percent stake in Bank of Communications Ltd., Flockhart said. Foreign lenders including RBS and UBS AG last year sold their shares in Bank of China Ltd. to raise cash as the global financial crisis deepened.


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HSBC May Use Rights Offer Money to Fund Takeovers (Update1)
(Bloomberg; 3 Mar 09)

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, may use part of the 12.5 billion pounds (US$17.7 billion) it's raising in a rights offering to fund acquisitions in Asia and other emerging markets.

Europe's biggest bank by market value will pursue "opportunities" for growth, including takeovers, Chairman Stephen Green told journalists at a press conference in London yesterday. "They are more likely to be bolt-on or incremental acquisitions" in emerging markets, he said.

HSBC may be interested in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's assets in Asia. Edinburgh-based RBS, which last week posted the biggest loss by a U.K. company, plans to abandon or sell retail and commercial banking operations in 13 Asian countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam.

"Asia seems to be HSBC's natural hunting ground for acquisitions," said Mamoun Tazi, an analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd. in London. "If they find something of interest in Asia that's at the right price, they may consider buying."

A spokesman for HSBC in London declined to comment on whether HSBC plans to bid for RBS's Asian assets. The shares fell 1.6 percent, or 6.5 pence, to 392.5 pence at 10:03 a.m. in London today.

"Organically, we can grow as our competitors withdraw, we can put our capacity to work so that means you don't have to be quick to buy something to do that," Sandy Flockhart, HSBC's chief executive officer for Asia-Pacific, said in an interview today in Hong Kong. The company is still open to making purchases in markets such as China and South Korea, he said.


Retreating Home
HSBC abandoned a US$6 billion purchase of Korea Exchange Bank on Sept. 19 after failing to persuade Dallas-based owner Lone Star Funds that the global financial crisis justified a reduction in price.

RBS spent about US$140 billion during the past decade on takeovers in the U.S., Asia and Europe, buying up part of ABN Amro Holding NV of the Netherlands in 2007; a 5 percent stake in Bank of China Ltd. in 2005; and Cleveland-based Charter One Financial Inc. in 2004. Former CEO Fred Goodwin's 14.3 billion- euro (US$19 billion) acquisition of ABN Amro led to half of its record writedowns this year.

While RBS, New York-based Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, are under pressure to lend more in their home markets after accepting government bailouts, HSBC, founded in Hong Kong and China more than 140 years ago, hasn't taken any state funds, freeing it of such restrictions.

Emerging Markets Profit
"Our profit generation in the last couple of years has been in emerging markets and that's where our real strength is," Flockhart said.

Acquisitive companies will take their time before making offers, said Marco Boschetti, the London-based head of global mergers, acquisitions and restructuring at the Towers Perrin consulting firm. Last year's experience of "Express M&A," where companies chased "distressed deals" is gone, he said.

"Companies are now adopting the 'make haste slowly' mantra, enforced due diligence aimed at revealing the post-completion nightmare that sprung from last year’s deals," Boschetti said.

RBS's financial adviser, Morgan Stanley, is preparing to send sales documents to potential buyers. The bank has said it may sell consumer and commercial banking operations in countries ranging from India and Pakistan to Vietnam and the Philippines.

Goodwin's replacement as CEO, Stephen Hester, has already sold RBS's stake in Beijing-based Bank of China, raising US$2.3 billion in January. The company scrapped the 5 billion-pound sale of its Churchill and Direct Line insurance operations last month.

6 則留言:

ken.yong 說...

I am just wondering why the new right-issue is at HKD 28, which is a deep discount to the current stock price. This looks like a poison pill against hostile take-over (i.e. dilution) rather than a currency for acquisitions.

As always, I wonder why Standard Chartered has fallen so much more than HSBC since last September. And Standard Chartered just announced it's results today: "Bank reports a 17.0% increase in profits, while its outlook remains healthy." Keep in mind, SC doesn't have those massive toxic wastes on its B/S.

fk_tim 說...

新興市場的風險
Albert兄已提醒了很多次

除了匯豐及宏利
可否舉下其他受惠於"金融業國有化"的金融企業例子?

阿爾伯特 說...

ken:
Risks in Korea, Taiwan, Middle East & some SE Asia countries have been rising over the months.

Comparatively speaking, economies in China, HK and Singapore are less volatile, although SCB may report lower earnings in HK & Singapore in 2009.


fk:
可能是JP Morgan、Prudential PLC、Barclays,甚至是渣打; 但正如你所說,新興市場的風險亦是一考慮因素。

阿爾伯特 說...

Psychology and emptiness....that's it

若缺齋老人 說...

老兄:對笨象的失望不在於盈利倒退(預左),但對班管理層完全當冇回事就難以原諒!

若缺齋老人 說...

Simon兄:找Albert兄委任我入董事會都係個辦法! XD